© 2011 IBM Corporation
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Bill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights
17 Aug 2011
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
2 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
How does a company survive 100 years?
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
3 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
How does a company survive 200 years?
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
4 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Table of Contents
How IBM Develops a View of the Future: Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives
How I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
5 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business
Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives
1. Global Technology Outlook
2. Academy of Technology
3. First of a Kind (FOAK)
4. Global Innovation Outlook
5. InnovationJam
6. Institute for Business Value
7. Market Development & Insights
8. HorizonWatch Community
Global
Technology
Outlook
(GTO)
Global
Innovation
Outlook
(GIO)
Academy of
Technology
(AoT)
First
of a Kind
(FOAK)
InnovationJam
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
Market Development &
Insights
(MDI)
Community: Horizonwatch
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
6 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries
China
WatsonAlmaden
Austin
TokyoHaifa
Zurich
India
IBM Research Lab
5 Nobel Laureates
14 National Medals
6 Turing Awards
80 Members of National Academies
11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame
Rio
Dublin
Melbourne
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
7 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research
ChemistryComputer Science Engineering
Materials Science
Mathematical Sciences
Physics
Behavioral Sciences
Service Science, Management &
Engineering
BusinessInnovation
TechnologyInnovation
Social Innovation
Demand Innovation
Science & Engineering
Business & Management
Social & Cognitive Sciences
Economics & Markets
Improved human computer interaction
sub-micron lithography
Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)
Nano-science and Nano-technology
Organic Semiconductors Improve services-led economy
protein foldingTrackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management
http://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtml
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
8 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients
Objective The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon
– Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers– Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls– New technologies, new markets
The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives
About The Process It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM
Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers
Global
Technology
Outlook
(GTO)
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
9 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?
1Socially Synergistic Enterprise Solutions Aggregating, correlating and analyzing data generated from physical devices, structured information, and social networks
2Petascale Analytics Appliance and Ecosystem Big Analytics is needed to rapidly extract business value from huge volumes of Big Data
3Natural Resources Transformation & Management To meet rising global natural resource needs, companies will need to use IT to improve asset utilization, production and operational efficiency
4Internet of Things Managing the large amounts of new, interconnected devices that will help monitor the physical world and manage business processes
5 Frontiers of IT Moving from computing systems as “calculators” to “learning systems”
http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
10 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
A side benefit of the GTO process is the “5 in 5” series of foresight predictions published every year
http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnEhttp://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wss
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
11 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Global
Innovation
Outlook
(GIO)
Topics Water Security & Society
Africa Media and Content Energy & Environment
Transportation Future of the Enterprise Gaming & Leadership
The Inventor’s Forum A New IP Marketplace Government
Business of Work & Life Healthcare
Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interests
Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year
Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovation
Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers
Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects
The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
12 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business UnitsAcademy Mission
– Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas, – Improve development of IBM's global technical community, – Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.
Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’– Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity– Currently, many activities are in areas such as:
• Smarter Planet• Cloud Computing• Business Analytics and Optimization
What makes a good Academy activity?– Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and
innovation across business lines– Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation
that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,
Academy of
Technology
(AoT)
http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
13 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with
new technologies
Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes– Validate market requirements – Test market readiness
250+ projects completed
Recognized industry best practice– Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice– Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From
Research to Reality
First
of a Kind
(FOAK)
FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market
http://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtml
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
14
Online collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues
Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic
Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable results
InnovationJam
InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstorming
https://www.collaborationjam.com/
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
15 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies
HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body
Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform
InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam
"At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_Jam
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
16 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Sector / Industry Teams
Communications Energy & Utility Media & Entertainment Telecommunications
Distribution CPG Life Sciences/Pharma Retail Travel & Transportation
Public Defense Government Healthcare
Financial Services Banking Financial Markets Insurance
Industrial Aerospace Automotive Chemical & Petroleum Electronics Industrial Products
Customer Relationship Management
Human Capital Management
Supply Chain Management
Financial Management
Strategy & Change
Business Function Teams
Application Innovation
The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplines
Institute for Business Value
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
17 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Examples of Thought Leadership Studies
Example reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and
CIO Study
“Future Agendas” CXO Surveys
3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area
outlook with action oriented next steps
IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective
Institute for Business Value
Institute for
Business
Value
(IBV)
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
18 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats.
This includes providing a Market Insights perspective – Market Definition
– Potential Opportunity
– Drivers/Inhibitors
– Potential Segmentation
– Geographical Differences
– Competitive Intelligence
IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.
• Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ● Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ● Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy
• Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ● Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ● Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy
Market Development
& Insights
(MDI)
Example Reports
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
19 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”
http://bit.ly/kdPG80
Market Development
& Insights
(MDI)
Authors:
• David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights
• Steve Rogers, Director, IBM Center for Applied Insight
“The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and
reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning
what might be possible and deciding what would be
preferable.”
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
20 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Community: Horizonwatch
Demographics– This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+
IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.
Focus– Emerging trends and technologies
Conference calls– Topics are presented to the community by
subject matter experts
Collaboration platforms– Blog– Discussion forums– Bookmarks– File sharing– Wikis
The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures21
Community Objective:
Improve our collective ability to sense future disruptive technologies, business issues, trends and opportunities.
Benefit of the Community:
Diversity of the community means different perspectives, which enhances collaboration and sparks innovation.
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures22
HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Every year, an annual trends document is produced and presented to the community.
23
2011 Trends
1. Private Clouds
2. Virtualization
3. Social Business
4. Mobile Computing
5. Storage Trends
6. Advanced Business Analytics
7. The Personalized Web
8. Video-enabled Business Processes
9. Service Oriented Architecture
10. Sustainability & IT
11. Risk Management
Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
Community: Horizonwatch
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Other trend reports are produced and presented to the community.
24
Top Trends in Digital Marketing For 20111.Marketing Budgets Continue to Shift Towards Online
2.Social Media Marketing Is Maturing (Slowly)
3.Mobile Marketing Poised To Take Off
4.Personalized Marketing: Customize To Each Individual
5.Social Video As A Marketing Tool Gains Momentum
6.Search Engine Optimization Gets More Complex
7.Marketing Analytics Helps Make Sense Of All The Noise
8.Real Time Web Assistance Connects Buyer With Expert
9.Online Privacy Concerns Continue
10.Digital Marketing Optimization Emerges As A Priority
Source: Bill Chamberlin, IBM Market Insights via HorizonWatching
Blog Post: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://bit.ly/aHOY3P
Slide Deck: Top Ten Digital Marketing Trends For 2011 http://slidesha.re/fYUCgp
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures25
As A Market Insights Analyst, How Do I Approach Trends
Research?
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures26
In additional to traditional trend spotting, I leverage social media and communities….
Scanning: Search to understand what people are talking about.
Brainstorming: Two is better than one. Hundreds are better than two.
Thousands are better than hundreds.
Publishing: Posting content online helps establish my reach and authority
Idea Development: Get feedback and improve my research
Networking: Connect with other subject matter experts.
Learning: Develop a better understanding of the potential future(s)
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures27
1. A Primer on Smarter Water
2. A Primer On Cloud Computing
3. A Primer on Nanotechnology
4. A Primer on Telepresence
5. A Primer on Unified Communications
6. A Primer on Futurists
7. A Primer on 3D Printing
8. A Primer on Scenario Planning
9. A Primer on the Website Personalization Trend
10. A Primer on the Consumer Market for Household Robots
11. A Primer on the Trend Towards Video-enabled Business Processes
12. A Primer on the Smart Grid and Intelligent Utility Network Trend
13. A Primer On Water Management Issues
14. A Primer on Advanced Business Analytics
Sharing thought leadership content via a blog helps me develop my understanding of key trends and get feedback from readers
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Collaborate with me…I can be found at the following social sites…
28
LinkedIn = Bill Chamberlin Thought Leadership Blog = Horizonwatching on
Typepad Signal/Scanning Blog = HorizonWatching on Tumblr Twitter ID = Horizonwatching Facebook = HorizonWatching Online Newsletter = HorizonWatching Slideshare IBM Expert Network = HorizonWatching Google+ = Bill Chamberlin LinkedIn Group = Horizonwatching A Smarter Planet = Blog on Tumblr The InfoBoom Community = Profile Page
28
© 2011 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Insights
29 HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Thank You