Download - Hisd 29 Jan 10 Part II
Futurizing Your Teaching Practice
A Partnership between
Houston Independent School District
& Texas Association of Gifted & Talented & University of Houston
A TAGT 6-hour Update
What strategy might best support teachers who introduce futures into the classroom?
“Futurizing” your teaching practice:
means to shift the focus of the course into the “future tense.” (Alvin Toffler in Future Shock 1970)
Future: a verb tense that expresses actions or states in the future
The future tense is used to express wonder or possibility.
(Glenn, Jerome C. Futurizing Teaching vs Futures Course, 1972.)
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
What strategy might best support teachers who introduce futures into the classroom?
“Futurizing” your teaching practice
means tweaking current class assignments to allow a
futures-perspective
means giving license to your students to wonder
“what” could have happened instead [alternative history]
“what” might happen if [exploratory imagining]
“what” would you like to see happen [anticipatory thinking]
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
“Futurizing” your teaching
will help your students develop anticipatory thought
and mental preparation for the future.
Objective:
“to attempt to get learners to develop a “way of thinking”
which will help them look beyond today and anticipate what
they may be faced with tomorrow. (Source: Nation’s Schools, March 1972)
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
What strategy might best support teachers who introduce futures into the classroom?
Futures Principle #1
“We cannot build a future we cannot imagine.”
[Elgin, 1998, 78]
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Well-rounded method for actively engaging students in the future
FUTURES INQUIRY
Futures Inquiry
a thematic interdisciplinary method for teaching futures
principles, techniques and issues
focused on studying the dynamics of change and the
implications of that change
integrating across three streams of higher order thinking
skills: Systems Thinking
Divergence Thinking
Futures Thinking
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Futures ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts
Systems ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts
Divergence ThinkingPrinciples/Concepts
1
3
2
FUTURES INQUIRY
Well-rounded method for actively engaging students in the future
1. Systems Thinking
Is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing
interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of
change rather than static “snapshots.”
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Systems Thinking
“Thus everything in the universe affects everything else
because they are all part of the same unbroken whole.” David Bohm (Wholeness and the Implicate Order, 1980)
Imagery of Systems: ecology of life systems, networks
Systems thinking tends to reside in the natural and physical sciences.
Yet it is equally applicable to the context of social sciences and social problems.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Systems Thinking
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Question:
If A causes B, is it possible that B causes A also?
If so, what would that mean?
(It’s a “system” relationship not a “cause” relationship.)
Neighborhood quality Educational investment
Linear thinking is the opposite of systems thinking.
Key Principles of Systems Thinking
“The notion of the world and our universe are made of
separate ‘things’ is an illusion and lead to endless
confusion.” David Bohm, Quantum Physicist
A. Relationship is key determiner of everything.
The component parts of a system are best understood in the
context of relationships with each other and with other systems,
rather than in isolation.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Key Principles of Systems Thinking
“When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to
everything else in the universe.” John Muir, Environmentalist
B. Connection is the fundamental ingredient of all creation.
We best understand a system by examining the linkages and
interactions between the elements that compose the entirety of
the system.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Key Principles of Systems Thinking
C. Small changes can have system-wide impacts
A seemingly insignificant act in one part of the whole creates nonlocal
results that emerge far away.
Unseen connections create effects at a distance—in places sometimes
quite surprising to us.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
EXAMPLE: What connection exists between the 1992 US
Federal Housing Act & Icelandic economy of
2008?
Key Principles of Systems Thinking
1992 US Federal Housing Act mandates HUD to set goals for lower
income and underserved housing areas for Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac.
________ ______________ ________
In a televised address to the nation, Prime Minister Geir Haarde conceded:
“There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy
in the worst case could be sucked into the whirlpool and the result
could be national bankruptcy.” (Business Week, 10/8/08)
Deeper and wider scope of global interdependencies leads to growing complexity of problems & cascading of impacts.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Habits of Systems Thinkers
1. Seek to understand the whole picture, more than certain scenes.
2. Change point of view/ perspective in order to increase understanding.
3. Look for interdependencies.
4. Identify complex causality relationships.
5. Understand and consider the ways in which mental models affect the present and future reality.
6. Bring out the assumptions and subject them to testing.
7. Consider the short and long-term consequences of actions.
8. Find where and when the unintended consequences surface.
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Systems Thinkingbroadens the scope
1
Futures Inquiry
3
2
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FUTURES INQUIRY
2. Divergent Thinking
A thought process applied to the open generation of ideas
for creative or problem-solving activities
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Divergent Thinking
Take 1minute & generate TITLES for this great work of art!
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Key aspects of Divergent Thinking
fluency -------the ability to rapidly produce a large number of ideas or
solutions to a problem in a short amount of time
flexibility -----the capacity to consider a variety of approaches to a
problem simultaneously
originality ----the tendency to produce ideas different from those of
most other people
elaboration ---the ability to think through the details of an idea and
carry it out
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Divergent Thinking
Question:
What might some believe is missing from that list?
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Divergent ThinkingThe role of divergent thinking contrasts with critical & convergent thinking in
the creative problem solving process.
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Divergent Thinking
Rather than gathering
information & converging it on
the central problem,
we instead branch off populating
the divergent space with
novel ideas,
new perspectives
from which to draw.
Instead of driving for a single
correct answer, we entertain a
host of possibilities.
Populate the
divergent space
Stimulus/ Trigger
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Divergent ThinkingKEY
Being open to AMBIGUITY!
Checking the desire to
CONVERGE too early!
Entertaining without BIAS a host
of possibilities!
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
The process is like growing a GARDEN.
You can’t harvest from more than you planted!
Sources of divergent questions for Futurizing your Teaching Practice
1. Descriptions of the source(s) of potential change
2. Causality /relationship of events, issues, …
3. Effects / outcomes from actions, decisions, …
4. Identifying importance of a change(s)
5. Understanding the parts that comprise the whole
6. Types of possible change present
7. Taking stock of knowns and unknowns
8. Classification of changes, implications, …
9. Effect of assumptions about change(s), implications
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Imagine what 2050 might look like.
Suppose that robots substituted for teachers in the classroom, …
Forecast (rather than predict) what the outcome could be if …..
If..., then what?
How might your world be different if your mother did not marry your
father?
Can you create an imagine of your perfect world?
What are some possible consequences of …
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Triggers for Futurizing your Teaching Practice
Divergent Thinking
EXAMPLE:
Suppose a Hawaiian divorce court in 1964 had awarded custody of
Barak Obama to his Kenyan father, how might the world be different
today?
Better yet, imagine how your grandchildren’s world of 2025 might be
difference as a result of the Obama’s presidency.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Systems Thinkingbroadens the scope
1
Futures Inquiry
3
2 Divergence Thinkingpopulates the thought space
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FUTURES INQUIRY
3. Futures Thinking
An informed reflective process for systematically and
productively considering the range of possible futures in the
next ten, twenty or more years in any domain of life.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
The Futures: Expected-Alternative-Preferred
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future/ Extended Present
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Steps of Engagement
1. Begin with the End in Mind.
2. Assemble information to identify the extended present /
expected future.
3. Engage in creative imagining using futures techniques & tools
to construct alternative futures.
4. Create visions to mobilize efforts and align action to a
preferable future.
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Begin with the End in Mind
We study the future to facilitate the emergence of the
BEST possible tomorrow for ourselves individually, for our
communities collectively, and for unborn future generations
proactively.
If you don't make a conscious effort to visualize
who you are and what you want in life,
then you empower other people and
circumstances to shape you and your life by
default.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Developing the Assignment
An important objective of the assignment (question or area of interest)
should be illuminating the implications of change.
The reference period of the assignment (+10, +15, …, +50 years
forward) should be inclusive of the decision-making time frame.
Gather information about indicators of change from the global environment across disciplines and sources.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Information about Change - DEGEST
Demography covers specific population groups, gender, age, ethnicity, family composition, & public health issues.
Economics includes production, consumption, exchange, finance, business, work and careers, and management.
Government includes collective decision-making, world affairs, politics, laws, and public policy.
Environment includes nature, resources, ecosystems, species, habitats and waste.
Society covers language, beliefs, ethics, lifestyles, values, religion, leisure, culture, and education.
Technology includes manipulation of the physical world, materials, machinery, innovations, scientific discoveries, and their impact.
S
T
E
E
P
Projected World
Population Growth
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Example: Social- Cultural ?
Israel: First humans, now trees will text you
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Example: Technology ?A new device under development in Israel would
take some of hassle out of determining if fruit
trees or grape vines are getting enough water.
The monitor, tapped into a stem, would measure
the plant’s electric conductivity, a parameter of
water stress. If the stress gets to be too much,
the device can send a text message or e-mail
to the farmer. And if the plant continues to bake
in the sun without water, the device can also turn
on the water itself.
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Example: Economics
India, China, Russia to lead the world as US power to
fade by 2025
If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world’s second
largest economy and will be a leading military power.
It also could be the largest importer of natural resources and
the biggest polluter.
?
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Example: Environment
?The number of WORLDS needed to meet resource demands.
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Examples: Geo-Politics
Wars of Scarcity:
More than 1 billion people HUNGRY worldwide: FAO 10/14/09
In 2008, 1.4 billion people lived in "closed basins"--regions where
existing WATER cannot meet the agricultural, municipal, and
environmental needs for all. This number is expected to grow to 1.8
billion by 2025.
Today, experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about
600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce. Owing to
continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are
projected to fall into this category by 2025.
?
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Applying Futures Tools
Timelines:
visual representations connecting past to present to future
facilitates logical conjecture on what might happen moving forward in time
Futures Wheel:
an opportunity to stretch implications from 1st order into 2nd and 3rd
Incasting:
an opportunity to use “kernels” for story building about the future (scenarios)
Attributes of Futures Thinking
Multi-disciplinary and Global perspective
Long-range: ten years to a thousand years forward
Complexity & Ambiguity translate into opportunity &
potentiality
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Systems Thinkingbroadens the scope
1
Futures Inquiry
3
2 Divergence Thinkingpopulates the thought space
Futures Thinkingextends the time horizon
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
FUTURES INQUIRY
Futures Inquiry
a thematic interdisciplinary method for teaching futures
principles, techniques and issues
focused on studying the dynamics of change and the
implications of that change
integrating across three streams of higher order thinking
skills: Systems Thinking
Divergence Thinking
Futures Thinking
Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
a thought du jour
“We are made wise not by the recollection of the
past but by the responsibility for the future.”
George Bernard Shaw
Questions?
Comments?
Concerns?
Houston Independent School District
& Texas Association of Gifted & Talented & University of Houston