Global Market Forecast
Latin America & the Caribbean 2019-2038
Arturo Barreira
President, Airbus Latin America and Caribbean
01
Airbus in Latin
America &
Caribbean
02
Airbus Global
Market Forecast
for Latin
America &
Caribbean
End December 2018 Source: Fleet Analyzer, OAG, SABRE *From 2017/08 – 2018/07
Aircraft in operation
increased by 86%
x6 increase in the backlog
RPKs by 110%
Regional evolution
1487
10.8
73
1008
368
800
16.1
90
150
175
Aircraft in operation
Airlines
Avg fleet age (yrs)
Aircraft in backlog
RPK (billions)*
2000 2018
Yearly
Update
End October 2019 Source: Airbus internal Pax & Freighter a/c Leased a/c included
Airbus presence
A300
A320
A330
A340
11
655
40
5
11 A350
Monthly
Update
722 aircraft in service
623 to be delivered
17 operators
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
Orders
Year
25 years of cumulative orders
X 3 1228
602
Boeing
Monthly
Update
End October 2019 Source: Airbus internal, Boeing
Airbus has
secured 67% of net orders since 1994
End October 2019 Only pax a/c Source: Airbus internal, Ascend
Airbus fleet in-service
Monthly
Update
623 to be delivered
24 customers and operators
13%
91 127
169 172 179 199
235
294
345 344
432
479 515
557 590 592
608
654
700 706
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Aircraft in service
Year
60%
The undisputed aircraft of choice for Latin America
71% Orders
Market Share
End October 2019 Source: Airbus, Boeing Leased a/c included
leads MAX
11
Customers 6
Customers
MAX
Monthly
Update
71%
29%
End October 2019 Source: Airbus Leased a/c included
The neo is flying in Latin America
VivaAerobus
16 x A320neo PW
Azul
32 x A320neo CFM
JetSmart
1 x A320neo PW
LATAM
11 x A320neo PW
Volaris
16 x A320neo PW
6 x A321neo PW
Avianca
9 x A320neo CFM
2 x A321neo CFM
119 A320neo Family aircraft delivered
Monthly
Update
Sky Airlines
12 x A320neo PW
Interjet
6 x A320neo CFM
8 x A321neo CFM
Airbus Order Backlog
623 Total order backlog
End October 2019 Source: Airbus
Leased a/c included Passenger a/c
428
27
3
163
1
Monthly
Update
01
Airbus in Latin
America &
Caribbean
02
Airbus Global
Market Forecast
for Latin
America &
Caribbean
Economy mainly driven by private consumption
Latin America & the Caribbean economy expected to get back to growth
Socio & Macro economy
Real GDP (trillions, 2015 US$)
GMF 2019 forecast
2018-2038 CAGR
2.9%
Historical
1998-2018 CAGR
2.2%
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Economic growth will accelerate
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018 2028 2038
Governmentconsumption
Net trade
Grossdomesticinvestment
Privateconsumption
Real GDP (trillions, 2015 US$)
66% 66%
66%
Latin America & the Caribbean Middle Class** expected to represent 74% of the population by 2038
Socio & Macro economy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038
Middle
Class** 310 million 410 million 560 million
61% 63%
74%
Forecast History Million Share Middle Class**
Middle class expected to grow from 410m people today, to 560m by 2038
Source: Oxford Economics,
Airbus GMF 2019
Upper Class***
Middle Class**
Lower Class*
% Middle Class
* Households with yearly
income between US$0 and
US$20,000 at PPP in
constant 2015 prices
** Households with yearly
income between US$20,000
and US $150,000 at PPP in
constant 2015 prices
*** Households with yearly
income above US$150,000
at PPP in constant 2015
prices
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
Socio & Macro economy
Other
Latin America & the Caribbean
Bubble size proportional
to population
2018 trips per capita
2018 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
In 2018, there were ~0.43 trips per capita for Latin American & the Caribbean
countries
Brazil
0.45 trips per capita
Mexico
0.46 trips per capita
Colombia
0.56 trips per capita
Chile
0.89 trips per capita
Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 20 40 60 80 100
Socio & Macro economy
Other
Latin America & the Caribbean
Bubble size proportional
to population
2038 trips per capita
2038 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
By 2038, Latin America & the Caribbean trips per capita will double (~0.86)
Brazil
1.00 trips per capita
Mexico
0.74 trips per capita
Colombia
1.32 trips per capita
Chile
2.26 trips per capita
Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country
O&D traffic has grown by 6.2% per year since 2002
Historical traffic
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Intl - CIS
Intl - Middle East
Intl - Africa
Intl - Asia/Pacific
Intl - Europe
Intl - Latin America
Intl - North America
Domestic
Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2019
O&D passengers per year, from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean (millions)
x10.2
x7.2
x3.2
x4.0
x2.0
x2.5
x2.1
x3.1
2018 vs.
2002
Traffic from/to/within Latin American & the Caribbean countries has been
multiplied by 2.6 since 2002
71% of the additional traffic generated since 2002 is from Brazil, Mexico and Colombia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Millions
Brazil
Mexico
Colombia
Argentina
Chile
Peru
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Bolivia
Cuba
Puerto Rico
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Bahamas
Panama
Venezuela
Trinidad & Tobago
Belize
Guatemala
Aruba
x3.4
2002
2018
Historical traffic
x3.0 x4.7
x4.5 x3.2
x1.2 x2.7 x1.7 x1.3
x2.8 /2.6
x2.2 x1.8
x1.4 x1.8
x4.3
x2.7 x3.8
x2.8 x3.3
Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2019
Top 20 O&D passengers by origin Latin America & the Caribbean countries (millions)
Brazil, Mexico and Colombia leading Latin America and the Caribbean
passenger traffic growth
O&D traffic from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean forecast to grow at 4.2% per year
North America
4.0%
CIS
4.1% Europe
3.4%
Asia-Pacific
5.2%
Middle East
6.9%
Africa
5.3%
Traffic forecast
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
O&D traffic forecast – 2018-2038 CAGR
Latin America & the Caribbean O&D traffic expected to grow strongly over
the next 20 years
Domestic &
Intra-regional
4.4%
Domestic & Intra-regional
Latin America & the
Caribbean
4.4%
Latin America & the
Caribbean - Rest of World
3.9%
Total
4.2%
Traffic from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean forecast to multiply by 2.3 by 2038
Traffic forecast
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
O&D passengers on TOP20 country-pairs from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean (millions)
By 2038, 62% of additional traffic driven by Domestic markets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0 50 100 150 200 250
Millions
Domestic Brazil
Domestic Mexico
Domestic Colombia
Mexico - USA
Domestic Chile
Domestic Peru
Domestic Argentina
Dominican Republic - USA
Brazil - USA
Domestic Bolivia
Domestic Ecuador
Puerto Rico - USA
Colombia - USA
Argentina - Brazil
Jamaica - USA
Mexico - Canada
Argentina - USA
Costa Rica - USA
Peru - USA
Ecuador - USA
2018
2038
x2.5 x2.2 x2.3
x2.7 x2.3
x2.5 x1.7 x2.5
x1.9
x1.8
x2.3 x2.4 x2.9
x3.1 x3.0
x2.1
x2.3 x2.6
x1.8 x2.5
In 2038, Latin America & the Caribbean home to 9 Aviation Mega-Cities
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires
Santiago
Lima
Mexico City
Panama City
Bogota
2038
9 Aviation
Mega-cities
261.1k Daily Passengers:
Long-haul traffic
to/from/via Aviation
Mega-Cities
Rio de Janeiro
Cancun
Traffic forecast
O&D traffic growth will boost Aviation Mega-Cities in the region
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
+2
x2.6
>50,000 daily long-haul passengers
>20,000 daily long-haul passengers
>10,000 daily long-haul passengers
In 2018, Latin America & the Caribbean had 7 Aviation Mega-Cities
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires
Santiago
Lima
Mexico City
Panama City
Bogota
2018
7 Aviation
Mega-cities
99.9k Daily Passengers:
Long-haul traffic
to/from/via Aviation
Mega-Cities
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
>50,000 daily long-haul passengers
>20,000 daily long-haul passengers
>10,000 daily long-haul passengers
Aircraft demand is split between growth (57%) and replacement (43%)
Fleet forecast
1,460
300
1,160
1,540
2,700
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries
Stay
Replace
Growth
Number of aircraft
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) | Figures rounded to nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Demand for some 2,700 new aircraft in Latin America & the Caribbean
New deliveries 1,460
3,000
Demand for some 2,700 new aircraft in Latin America & the Caribbean
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) | Figures rounded to nearest 10
Source: Airbus GMF 2019 Fleet forecast
2,400 aircraft
89% share of total new del.
200 aircraft
7% share of total new del.
100 aircraft
4% share of total new del
SMALL MEDIUM LARGE
Services demand forecast
Services market in Latin America & the Caribbean worth a cumulative
US$268bn over the next 20 years
SERVICES VALUE
US$268bn
NEW PILOTS
47,550
NEW TECHS
64,160
TECHNICIANS
10% of global
demand
9% of global
demand
PILOTS
5% of total
market value
SERVICES MARKET
Fleet forecast
Source: Airbus GSF 2019