Download - Global Issues in International Development
IRD$Seminar$
$Global&Issues&&
in&Interna/onal&Development$Andrew$Speedy$–$Visi4ng$Professor,$School$of$Agriculture$
$$$
Wednesday29$Oct$20134$
The$Blue$Marble$
Inco
me
per P
erso
n of
the
Wor
ld
Life Expectancy of the World
Liechtenstein
Antigua&Barbuda
Dominica
Palau
NauruTuvalu
Seychelles
St. Kitts& Nevis
AndorraSan Marino
Monaco
Andorra
St.LuciaPanama
Sao Tomeand Principe
Tonga
Samoa
Grenada
Brunei
Comoros
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Luxembourg
Namibia
Swaziland
Timor-Leste
Micronesia
Trinidad and Tobago
Albania
Bhutan
Kiribati
Kosovo
Cyprus
Maldives
Slovenia
Suriname
Belize
Mauritius
Bahamas
Malta
Vanuatu
Montenegro
Estonia
Gambia
Guinea-BissauLesotho
Botswana
Mongolia
Oman
Qatar
Iceland
Barbados
BahrainCapeVerde
Latvia
SolomonIslands
Macedonia
Fiji
Guyana
Jamaica
St.Vincentand G.
Armenia
Lithuania
Uruguay
Mauritania
Moldova
Kuwait
Congo, Rep.Liberia
Bosnia and H. Croatia
Lebanon
Israel
Costa Rica
Puerto Rico
New Zealand
Georgia
Central African Rep.
SwedenSingapore
Norway
Ireland
Finland
Austria
Turkmenistan
Slovak Rep.
Kyrgyzstan
Eritrea
DenmarkTaiwan
Papua New Guinea
Hong Kong
United Arab Emirates
South Sudan
Switzerland
Hungary
BelarusAzerbaijan
Dom.R.
Bulgaria
Serbia
Burundi
LibyaNicaragua
Palestine
Sierra Leone
Laos
Benin
Guinea
Somalia
Tajikistan
Togo
El Salvador
Honduras ParaguayJordan
Poland
Bolivia
Haiti
Czech Rep.
Portugal
Tunisia
Rwanda
GreeceBelgiumCuba
Chad
Senegal
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Cambodia
Ecuador
Guatemala
BurkinaFaso
MalawiNiger
Mali
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Chile
Romania
Cameroon
Sri Lanka
Cote d'Ivoire
Angola
Madagascar
Syria
Australia
Mozambique
Yemen
North Korea
Afghanistan
Ghana
Nepal
Sudan
SaudiArabia
PeruVenezuela
Malaysia
Morocco
Uzbekistan
Italy
Spain
UK Germany
Canada
France
South Korea
Philippines
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Egypt
IranTurkey
Dem. Rep. Congo
Thailand
South Africa
Myanmar
Colombia
Ukraine
Tanzania
Kenya
Argentina
Algeria
Iraq
Uganda
ChinaBangladesh
Indonesia
Pakistan
USA
Russia
Brazil
Nigeria
Japan
Mexico
India
2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto Rico and Taiwan.
Documentation andpdf version for print at:
3 orless
10100 1000
millions
Colour by region
Size by population
If you want to see more data visit:
www.gapminder.org
Free to copy, share and remix, but attribute to
Gapminder Foundation.
Version 11 September 2012
map
layo
ut b
y Pao
lo Fa
uson
e
gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf
GAPMINDER WORLD 2012Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations
Healthy
Poor Rich
Sick
50
500 1 000 2 000 20 0005 000 10 000 50 000
60
70
80
55
65
75
income per person in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)
life
exp
ecta
ncy
in ye
ars
Hans&Rosling&
Key$Data$
• Land$15$billion$ha$–$Water$36$billion$ha$
• Agricultural$land$5$billion$ha$
• Global$popula4on$7$billion$
• Urban$53.1$percent$S$Rural$46.9$percent$
Key$Data$
• Global$popula4on$7$billion$
• 800$million$underfed$–$1$.1$billion$overfed$
• Poor$were$underfed$–$now$poor$badly$nourished$
• Small$farmers$50%,$landless$20%,$urban$poor$
20%,$herders/pastoralists/fishers$10%$
Key$Data$
• Global$popula4on$7$billion$
• World$income:$richest$fiZh74%,$second$14.6%,$
third$6.3%,$fourth$3.5%,$poorest$fiZh1.5%$$
Distribu4on$between$and$within$countries$
• Gini$coefficient$0.25$(Scandinavia)$to$0.66$(S$
Africa)$
Key$Data$
• Global$popula4on$7$billion$
• Atmospheric$CO2$has$passed$400$ppm$
• More$extreme$events$
• Crop$yields$will$be$affected$
• Sea$level$will$rise$
World$Popula4on$
0$
1,000,000$
2,000,000$
3,000,000$
4,000,000$
5,000,000$
6,000,000$
Oceania$ Europe$ Americas$ Africa$ Asia$
1961$
2014$
2050$
Regional$popula4on$change$
World$Resources$Ins4tute$
Land$use:$Green$areas$are$used$for$growing$crops,$brown$areas$are$used$for$raising$animals.$
How$to$double$your$crop$yield$• Gene4c$improvement$–$biotechnology$S$GM$• Seed$quality$• Water$/$irriga4on$• Fer4lizer$• Pest$and$disease$control$• Integrated$pest$management$IPM$• Precision$agriculture$• Post$harvest$management$(reduced$losses)$• Added$value$
How$to$make$your$pig$(or$other)$grow$twice$as$fast$$(or$your$cow$produce$more$milk)$
• Gene4cs$• A.I.$• Reproduc4on$• Balanced$nutri4on$• Animal$health$
Livestock$diseases$
• Zoono4c$diseases$– Food$borne$diseases$– Cistercercosis$
• Avian$influenza$• Newcastle$disease$• CSF,$ASF$and$PRRS$• FootSandSMouth$Disease$FMD$• Hemorrhagic$sep4caemia$• East$Cost$Fever$
Global$livestock$trends$• Global$livestock$produc4on$has$increased$by$more$than$60$percent$in$the$
last$20$years$(from$187$to$302$million$tonnes)*$to$meet$growing$demand;$half$of$this$is$due$to$the$increase$in$the$human$popula4on$and$the$rest$a$result$of$increasing$affluence$in$middleSincome$developing$countries$(Speedy,$2003).$$
• From$1992S2012,$meat$produc4on$and$consump4on$in$China$has$trebled$in$all$sub$sectors$(beef,$mumon$and$poultry)$except$pig$meat,$which$has$doubled.$Similar$trends$are$seen$in$SE$Asia$with$increases$in$poultry$and$pig$meat$of$2.35$and$2.56$4mes$respec4vely.$Milk$produc4on$is$also$rising$rapidly$in$China,$with$a$5.29$4mes$increase$in$20$years$(admimedly$from$a$low$base),$and$China$now$produces$more$than$5$per$cent$of$global$milk$supplies.$$
• India$has$seen$a$rise$of$more$than$four$4mes$in$poultry$produc4on.$In$the$same$period$in$India,$egg$produc4on$is$also$up$2.85$4mes$and$milk,$from$an$already$high$level,$has$more$than$doubled$(now$16.6$percent$of$World$milk).$$In$S$America,$meat$produc4on$has$doubled,$more$or$less$evenly$across$all$sectors.$
*The$equivalent$rise$in$fish$and$seafood$supplies$is$85%$(from$70$to$130$million$tonnes).$Regional$trends$vary.$
Climate$change$
hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$
hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$
hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$
hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$
World$at$Night$
POVERTY&
“The%increasing%urban/rural%divide%is%the%most%cri6cal%aspect%of%socio/economic%development%in%many%countries.%Besides%affec6ng%the%achievement%of%poverty%reduc6on%targets%and%other%development%goals,%a%solu6on%to%this%income%disparity%is%important%for%the%sustainability%of%growth%and%social%stability.”%
Addressing$inequality$
Gini$coefficent$–$World$map$
Stages$of$development$
• Agriculture,$fishing$and$pastoralist$society$• Mining$and$export$commodity$based$• Low$value$industry$$• High$value$industry$• Technology$based$• Consumer$society$
Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$
• Technology$– Apply$exis4ng$technology$– New$technology$–$biotech,$GM,$chemical,$precision$ag$
• Microfinance$(bemer:$savings$schemes)$• Access$to$markets$• Contract$farming$• Value$chain$approach$(private$sector$led)$• Exit$strategy$
MICROCREDIT$INTEREST$RATES$VARY$STRONGLY$BETWEEN$COUNTRIES$$Global$differences$in$microcredit$interest$rates$are$drama4c.$The$global$average$is$about$35$percent,$but$the$average$in$Uzbekistan$is$above$80$
percent,$and$in$Sri$Lanka$it$is$around$17$percent$$
Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$
• Diversifica4on$– Fruit$and$veg$– Aquaculture$– Non$farm$enterprises$– AgroStourism$
• Internal$migra4on$(urban$industries)$• Interna4onal$migra4on$
“Restructuring”$
• Larger$farms$• Land$concessions$• Support$for$private$sector$• Foreign$investment$• Export$growth$• Rural$–$urban$shiZ$
Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$
• Trade&• (Many$countries$net$importers)$• Par4cipa4on?$• Export$opportuni4es?$• Free$trade$(WTO)?$• Regional$trade$agreements?$• Interna4onal$compliance$(SPS)?$• Protec4onism$
GDP$Growth$
• China$8%$• India$7%$• Vietnam$5%$• Cambodia$6%$– But….$
• ICOR$(Incremental$Capital$Output$Ra4on)$• Real$estate$• Low$tech$industry$• Decent$work?$
GDP$growth$2009S13$Country$ 2009S13$China$ 8.9$India$ 7.0$Kazakhstan$ 5.4$Kenya$ 4.4$Cambodia$ 5.6$Lao$PDR$ 8.1$Sri$Lanka$ 6.7$Mozambique$ 7.0$Nigeria$ 5.9$Vietnam$ 5.7$
US,$UK,$Japan$<1$percent)$
Small$is$not$beau4ful$
• Pro$poor$rural$development$?$• Improve$livelihoods$on$1S2$ha$?$• Par4cipa4on$in$value$chain$?$• Public$private$partnership$?$• Migra4on$• Remimances$• Educa4on,$health,$consump4on$
Public$Private$Partnerships$
• Corporate$social$responsibility$• Research$and$development$• Seeds,$fer4lizers,$chemicals$(distribu4on)$• Access$to$markets$(traders,$contracts)$• Value$chain$approach$• Government$regula4on$
Issues$
• Interna4onal$aid$(dependence)$• Educa4on$(low$tech)$• Government$monopoly$• State$owned$enterprises$• High$interest$rates$• Corrup4on$• Trans$na4onal$companies$
World$Map$Index$of$percep4on$of$corrup4on$
Na4onal$Economy$
Market$Economy$
Public$Sector$
Government$
Manufacturing$ Service$Sector$
Agriculture$(Farmers)$
Banks$
Real$Estate$
Exports$
Credit$
Consumers$
Tax$
Labour$
Global$Companies$
Global$Finance$Global$Economy$
All%bubbles%can%expand,%contract%or%burst%
Market$Economy$
Public$Sector$
Government$
Manufacturing$ Service$Sector$
Agriculture$(Farmers)$
Banks$
Real$Estate$
Exports$
Credit$
Outsourcing$
Bonds$$$$$$Hedge$funds$$$$$$Leveraging$$$$$Futures$$$$$$Deriva4ves$$
Consumers$
Tax$
Labour$
What’s$Wrong$with$the$World?$
• Conflict$• Food$crisis$• Economic$crisis$• Poli4cal$crisis$• Natural$disasters$• Climate$Change$
UN$Task$Team$Thema4c$Think$Pieces$• Emerging$development$challenges$for$the$postS2015$$• Addressing$inequali4es:$The$heart$of$the$postS2015$agenda$and$the$future$we$want$for$all$• Peace$and$security$• Popula4on$dynamics$• Social$protec4on:$A$development$priority$in$the$postS2015$UN$development$agenda$• Building$on$the$MDGs$to$bring$sustainable$development$to$the$postS2015$development$agenda$• Ending$hunger$and$malnutri4on$and$ensuring$food$and$nutri4on$security$• Governance$and$development$• Health$in$the$postS2015$development$agenda$• Disaster$risk$and$resilience$• Educa4on$and$skills$for$inclusive$and$sustainable$development$beyond$2015$• UN$development$agenda:$Employment$• Sustainable$urbaniza4on$• Science,$technology$and$innova4on$and$intellectual$property$rights:$The$vision$for$development$• Macroeconomic$stability,$inclusive$growth$and$employment$• Migra4on$and$human$mobility$• Culture:$a$driver$and$an$enabler$of$sustainable$development$• Towards$freedom$from$fear$and$want:$Human$rights$in$the$postS2015$agenda$• Countries$with$special$needs$$