1Dian Fossey (1932-1985) and young mountain gorilla
A/Prof Colin D Butler
Global ecological destinies: fashioned by population, politics and denial
Foundation for the Future
7 billion dayBellevue, WA, USA. October 27-28, 2011
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population
Health
Two Parts
1. Political demography and the “Cornucopian
enchantment”
Mao, Malthus in the White House
Malthus out of the White House
2. Global ecological futures
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Hung Liang-chi (1744-1809)
Honda Toschiaki (1744-1821)
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Population/resources: an old debate
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1960s-1970sContraceptive pill, Papal Birth Control Commission (63-66)
President LB Johnson: grain to India
Peak population growth rate (2-2.1%) (68)
Green RevolutionNorman Borlaug’s warning (70)“Limits to Growth”, Stockholm – environment
conference (72)Bucharest: “development best contraceptive” (Karan
Singh) (74)
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President Richard Nixon (1969-74)
“countries .. need to maintain real economic
growth rates of 3% just to keep their per
capita incomes from dropping. Unchecked
population growth will put them on an ever-
accelerating treadmill that will outpace any
potential economic performance"
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1980s-2011grain per capita peaks (85)
ascendancy of “neoliberalism” (excessive faith in market forces,
deregulation)
Reagan on population, demographers (especially US) change course
Larry Summers (91)
Earth Summit (92)
oil >$140/barrel (08)
Global financial and food crises, worsening climate change (08-11)
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The Cornucopian Enchantment
Simon: “the notion of something being infinite is very much a matter of how we look at it..”
“The Ultimate Resource”
“From a high point some 10-15 years ago, intellectual concern about population has steadily waned to a position where it falls
now somewhere between ocean mining and acid rain” (McNicoll and Nag, 1982)
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President Ronald Reagan
• When questioned about population growth the New York Times reported he considered the problem to have been “vastly exagerated”
(Finkle and Crane, 1985)
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1990s
1991: Larry Summers: “no...limits to the carrying capacity of earth likely to bind any time in the foreseeable future. There isn't a risk of an apocalypse due to global warming or anything else. The idea that we should put limits on growth because of some natural limit, is a profound error and one that, were it ever to prove influential, would have staggering social costs.” (quoted in George and Sabelli, 1994)
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World Population: 0-2011
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11
infection (plague), undernutrition,
unfavourable climateBorlaug’s warning
Le Bras: “The problem has become a bit passé”
Reagan: problem “vastly exagerated”
Summers: “no limits to carrying capacity”
12Food prices: 1990-2011 (Raw data: FAO)
oil
causation more complex:oil price + extreme weather events?
1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
50
100
150
200
250
Food Price Index Cereals Price Index
Global Hunger: dream, reality (Butler, in press, data FAO)13
NB: excludes micronutrient undernutrition
Borlaug’s warning
World scientist’s warning to humanity
World Food Summit
reality
Global ecological
futures
14Jane Goodall (b 1934)
Secretariat of the Convention onBiological Diversity (CBD)
Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)
“Combined changes in land use, exploitation of forests and marine resources, .. climate change .. projected .. to result in significant changes in the distribution and abundance of species.”
I=P*A*T (Impact = Pop’n*Affluence*Technology)
(Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971)
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PAT
“main” drivers for deteriorating mammal species (1996–2008)
16Hoffman et al, IUCN 2011
RED list index status
Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)
“Following .. Earth Summit .. other summits addressed global issues that intersect with the global sustainable development agenda .. These included small island developing states, migratory fish stocks, human rights, population and development, human settlements, women, and social development. The programmes of action and commitments emerging from these are highly relevant for sustainable development, and to the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity p 246
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regional population expected to collapse from.. 6.5 million bats to fewer than 65,000 (99% decline)
Source: Frick et al, 2010White nose syndrome in the little brown bat
I=P*A*T*K*U*GK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee
BA
C
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Photo: Ken Cassman
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The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest Tropical Rainforest.
Nepstad et al, 2007
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The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest Tropical Rainforest, and Practical preventive Measures.
Nepstad et al, 2007
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Amazonia 2030, if current trends continue
Nepstad et al, 2007
I=P*A*T*K*U*G*FK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee
F= Feedback
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28Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (adapted)
I=P*A*T*K*U*G*FP*A*T: population, affluence, technology
K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governanceF= feedback
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Science, 2006
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Field et al, 2009
Governance
also
P*A*T
Illegal fishing: northern Australia
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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios:ecosystem services improve in
part in three scenarios by 2050
Adapted from FAO: 2010 (SOWFaA) 32
World fisheries production: wild vs farmed
some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser
year
aquaculture
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“We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.” (Aldo Leopold 1949)
Thank you
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I=P*A*T*K*U*G*F*LP*A*T: population, affluence, technologyK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governance, feedback
L: love