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WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers
http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html
WMO
J. Lengoasa
WMO Deputy Secretary-General [email protected]
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WMO Climate Investment Funds
Resilience: New Tools for Managing the Unavoidable • Need for variety of investments in climate resilience
• More resilient economies which can:
– absorb weather-related shocks
– adapt better to longer-term changes in temperature and rainfall patterns
more easily
– bounce back sooner.
Key focus of cities and coastal areas
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WMO
Disaster Risk Management
WEF, 2011
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WMO Building Resilience
• WEF, 2011 (adapted)
Early Warning
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WMO
5
Economic losses related to disasters are increasing…
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
4 11 1424
47
88
160
345
103
495
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
decade
0.05
2.66
0.17
1.73
0.39
0.65
0.22 0.25
0.67
0.22
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
decade
… but we are saving lives
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WMO
The previous two decades recorded highest number of National 24hour Precipitation Record
Highest number of broken National Maximum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades
Lowest number of broken National Minimum Temp Records in 2001-2010 compared to the previous three decades
(Source: WMO country data).
More hot days and more heat waves
Less cool nights
Intensification of heavy rainfall
Our Changing Climate
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WMO Global Temperature Trends
Temperature anomaly by decade over six geographical regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania. Countries with no data provided are blank. The anomalies are computed with respect to 1961-1990 period (WMO country data)
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WMO
Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for the 2001-2010 decade
Decadal precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2001-
2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-based analysis as
normalized departures in mm/year focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source:
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher
Wetterdienst, Germany)
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WMO
Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010
Annual precipitation anomalies for global land areas for 2010; gridded 1.0-degree raingauge-
based analysis as percentage of normals
focussing on 1951-2000 base period. (Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre,
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany) 2
3
4
5
Major floods in Many regions
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WMO Record low sea ice extent
2007
2012
Long Term Average
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WMO
11
Climate Prediction Framework
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WMO
• From mitigation to mitigation and adaptation
• From few to many customers/users/stakeholders
• Global century scenarios to regional predictions, days to decades
ahead
• Climate change to climate change and climate variability
• Broad climate to characteristics of weather; including extremes
and impacts
• Operational delivery – regularly updated monitoring, forecasts,
products & services
Climate Services: A Revolution in the Application of Climate Science
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WMO
13
A global integrated approach
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WMO The ‘pillars’ of the GFCS
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WMO
16
User Interface Platform
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WMO
Climate Services Information System
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WMO
Research, modelling and prediction
• Regional climate information
• Regional sea-level rise
• Cryosphere
• Atmosphere and climate
• Changes in water availability
• Prediction and attribution of extreme events
• Climate and socio-economic factors
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WMO
Observations and information systems
The WMO Integrated Global Observing System integrates data collection and exchange for improved weather forecasts and climate services.
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WMO Capacity development
• Strengthening of institutional and technical infrastructure
• Human resources development & renewal
• Continuing education and training • Special needs of LDCs • Gender issues
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WMO Implementation and partnerships
The GFCS Will build on the experiences
of National Meteorological Services Will support climate research
in NMSs – especially in the developing world All the WMO’s constituent
bodies are expected to play important roles United Nations and other will
be important partners
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WMO
Climate Services: Unlocking the potential
• Increasingly complex science, modelling and prediction systems
• Increasingly complex user requirements, requiring multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approaches
• Partnerships in science and delivery are essential • Dialogue with end users is vital
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WMO Climate Information Value Chain
Source: PPCR, World Bank (2012)
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WMO
© Crown copyright Met Office
10 model multi-model ensemble-mean prediction
Dealing with climate vulnerability now February 2009 forecast for Horn of Africa
March-April-May ‘long’ rains
category probabilities: drought twice
as likely as flood
Regional Climate Outlook Forum consensus
Observed rainfall Anomalies (mm)
Reuters May 12, 2009: Somalia’s worst drought in a decade is pushing growing numbers of children into near-famine conditions and deepening the humanitarian crisis caused by political violence, the United Nations warned …
Estimated food security condition, April-June 2009
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WMO
© Crown copyright Met Office
• Seasonal forecasts of La Nina from August 2010
• Ensemble mean rainfall anomalies (mm/day) for Nov – Jan from October 2010.
NB: 2.5 mm/day = 230mm accumulated
Queensland flooding: A predictable event?
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WMO
Transition to a low-carbon global economy
WBGU, 2009
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WMO
Implementation Partnerships
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WMO WMO
Thank you