Top 10 Mobile Technologies and
Capabilities for 2015 and 2016
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12 February 2014
G00260239
Analyst(s): Nick Jones
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Summary
We discuss 10 technologies and capabilities that will be critical to organizations wanting to
unlock the full potential of mobility as part of their digital business strategy.
Overview
Key Findings
Organizations wishing to unlock the full potential of mobility must master a wide
range of technologies and skills, many of which are currently unfamiliar to IT staff.
The business and technical opportunities enabled by our "top 10" mobile technologies
and skills should be explicitly addressed in corporate mobile strategies.
Recommendations
Use technology road maps and Hype Cycles and work with Gartner to identify those
mobile technologies that will be important to your organization's mobile strategy.
Once you have identified key mobile technologies, plan to acquire the skills, tools or
partners necessary to exploit them.
Many mobile technologies and skills will be rather tactical because of the high rate of
commercial and technical evolution in the mobile domain. Therefore, look for rapid
return on investment from those technologies, and use agile development processes to
ensure you can achieve your goals.
Table of Contents
Analysis
o Multiplatform/Multiarchitecture AD Tools
o HTML5
o Advanced Mobile UX Design
o High-Precision Location Sensing
o Wearable Devices
o New Wi-Fi Standards
o Enterprise Mobile Management (EMM)
o Mobile-Connected Smart Objects
o LTE and LTE-A
o Metrics and Monitoring Tools
Gartner Recommended Reading
Analysis
Through 2016, mobile devices and applications will continue to offer many opportunities for
commercial and technical innovation. They will create new ways to improve process
efficiency and effectiveness inside the organization and will deliver innovative products,
services and customer relationships outside it.
Unlocking the full potential of mobility requires the organization to master a wide range of
technologies and capabilities. In this research, we discuss 10 that should be on every
organization's radar screen. These certainly aren't the only important technologies; we
encourage clients to consult Gartner Hype Cycles to identify others they should be tracking.
However, we believe these 10 will be important to virtually every organization, so they
should be explicitly addressed in their mobile strategies.
The items listed were selected based on their potential impact in both consumer and
employee-facing mobile contexts with a somewhat greater weight given to employee-facing
usage to reflect the needs of many Gartner clients. The impact of a technology or capability is
derived from its ability to create more compelling applications, improve application delivery,
unlock new business opportunities, create innovative experiences/services or improve
mobile/wireless infrastructure performance.
Multiplatform/Multiarchitecture AD Tools
What are they and why are they important? Most organizations will need application
development (AD) tools to support a "3 x 3" future — three key platforms (Android, iOS and
Windows) and three application architectures (native, hybrid and mobile Web using
HTML5). Tool selection will be a complex balancing act — trading off many technical and
nontechnical issues such as productivity vs. vendor stability — and most large organizations
will need a portfolio of several tools to deliver to the set of architectures and platforms they
require.
When? Many multiplatform development tools are already available. The market is very
crowded and complex, as illustrated by "Magic Quadrant for Mobile Application
Development Platforms." Market evolution and consolidation will continue through 2018.
Who will be impacted? All organizations developing mobile applications.
Cautions: "Write once, run anywhere" is unachievable for apps with nontrivial user
experiences. However, "write 80% once" is achievable for many apps, so such tools have
value even if they aren't perfect. Consider most tools as tactical decisions because in 2014
there are far too many mobile development tools — over 150 at our last count. Radical
market consolidation and rationalization will occur.
HTML5
What is it and why is it important? "HTML5" is an umbrella term often used imprecisely
to refer to a set of Web specifications including HTML and related standards such as SVG,
WebGL, Canvas, CSS3, WebSocket, WebRTC and various technologies for offline data
storage within the browser. Modern mobile browsers support a range of these standards,
enabling developers to create sophisticated mobile Web experiences that in some cases can
approach the quality of native apps (see Note 1). Despite its immaturity and the challenges
noted below, HTML5 will be an essential technology for many organizations that deliver
apps across multiple platforms, especially for employee-facing situations when the highest
quality of user experience isn't essential.
When? All smartphones and tablets already support some version of HTML5, although there
are many differences of detail depending on browser and OS versions. The various
substandards will continue to evolve for the foreseeable future.
Who will be impacted? All organizations developing mobile applications or websites.
Cautions: HTML5 complements but does not replace native code, although hybrid
applications that combine HTML5 with native code allow developers to blend the strengths
of both approaches. HTML5 is a moving target and is fragmented with many differences
between devices, browsers and OS versions so significant testing will be required. HTML5
experiences may be unsatisfactory on poor-performance smartphones and slow network
connections.
Advanced Mobile UX Design
What is it and why is it important? Leading mobile apps are delivering exceptional user
experiences (UXs) achieved with a variety of techniques including motivational design,
"quiet" design, "playful" interfaces and new methodological approaches such as HEART (see
Notes 2, 3 and 4). Designers are also creating apps that can accommodate mobile challenges,
such as partial user attention and interruption, or exploit technologies with novel features or a
"wow" factor, such as augmented reality. Many leading apps have been created not by IT
staff but by digital marketing agencies that are experts in areas such as psychology and
artistic design.
When? Now. Leading mobile apps are already setting high user expectations in both
employee- and consumer-facing situations, and poor user experience is a common contributor
to low app-store ratings. Additionally, new sensors in mobile devices combined with
wearable smart accessories will increase the range and richness of interactions through 2018
(see Note 5).
Who will be impacted? High-quality UXs will be particularly important for organizations
delivering consumer-facing mobile apps that directly impact revenue or customer
satisfaction.
Cautions: People with the skills required to create a leading mobile UX are scarce, and the
most compelling experiences are often expensive to develop.
High-Precision Location Sensing
What is it and why is it important? Knowing an individual's location to within a few
meters is a key enabler for the delivery of highly relevant contextual information and
services. Apps exploiting precise indoor location currently use technologies such as Wi-Fi,
imaging, ultrasonic beacons and geomagnetics (see Note 6). In 2014, we expect growth in the
use of wireless beacons from vendors such as Apple (iBeacon), Qualcomm (Gimbal) and
Shopkick (ShopBeacon). In the longer term, technologies such as smart lighting will also
become important (see Note 7). Precise indoor location sensing combined with mobile apps
will enable a wide range of new location-based services and related information, such as
dwell time.
When? Several indoor location-sensing technologies are available now, and all will continue
to mature through 2018. We expect the use of beacons based on the low-energy Bluetooth
Smart standard to grow in 2014 and 2015 as beacon costs fall and increasing numbers of
consumers acquire handsets that support the necessary Bluetooth technology.
Who will be impacted? High-precision location is likely to be particularly important for
organizations that deploy consumer-facing mobile apps and that own facilities with large
areas of indoor real estate, such as shops, sports stadiums or malls.
Cautions: Precise location sensing raises many privacy concerns that may be addressed using
sophisticated "opt-in" approaches. Privacy may be subject to regulation in some countries.
Excessive or inappropriate use of location-based alerts can be intrusive. Finding ways to turn
location information into increased revenue has been challenging for some early adopters.
Wearable Devices
What are they and why are they important? The smartphone will become the hub of a
personal-area network (PAN) consisting of wearable gadgets such as on-body healthcare
sensors, smart jewelry, smart watches, display devices (e.g., Google Glass) and a variety of
sensors embedded in clothes and shoes. The sensors in these devices will communicate with
mobile apps to provide information and deliver new products and services in areas such as
sports, fitness, fashion, hobbies and healthcare. Many of these services will be part of a wider
trend Gartner labels the "quantified self," which will create new ways to engage with
consumers and employees.
When? In 2014, wearables are dominated by sports and fitness sensors. Pilots of smart
jewelry, such as pendants with notifier capability, have been demonstrated, as have a few
items of smart clothing containing LEDs that can be programmed with a smartphone. This is,
however, a market in its very early stages; we expect wearables to grow to be a multibillion-
dollar-a-year market by 2016.
Who will be impacted? Industries such as healthcare, sports and fashion will manufacture
wearable devices and use mobile apps to control the devices and to analyze the information
they collect from them. Organizations will find business uses for wearables with their
employees; for example, they may use the devices for monitoring, communicating, and
assuring health and safety .
Cautions: Personal accessories such as smart watches displaying email and messages will
pose new security and management challenges for employers. Devices that can record video
will raise many privacy concerns, as has been demonstrated by Google Glass.
New Wi-Fi Standards
What are they and why are they important? Emerging Wi-Fi standards such as 802.11ac
(Waves 1 and 2), 11ad, 11aq and 11ah will increase Wi-Fi performance, make Wi-Fi more
relevant to applications such as telemetry, and enable Wi-Fi to provide new services (for
example, to citizens in public locations). Over the next three years, demands on the Wi-Fi
infrastructure will increase as more Wi-Fi-enabled devices appear in organizations, as cellular
offloading becomes more popular and as applications such as location sensing demand denser
access-point placement. The opportunities enabled by new standards and the performance
required by new applications will require many organizations to revise or replace their Wi-Fi
infrastructure (see Note 8).
When? Prestandard versions of 11ac Wave 1 can be deployed immediately; other standards
will emerge in production equipment through 2016.
Who will be impacted? Any organization with a Wi-Fi network.
Cautions: Identify which standards and capabilities will be required through 2016, and
ensure that your equipment vendor commits to support the necessary upgrade paths.
Enterprise Mobile Management (EMM)
What is it and why is it important? "Enterprise mobile management" (EMM) is a term that
describes the future evolution and convergence of several current mobile management,
security and support technologies. These include mobile device management (MDM), mobile
application management (MAM), application wrapping and containerization, and some
elements of enterprise file synchronization and sharing (EFSS). Such tools will mature, grow
in scope and eventually address a wide range of mobile management needs across all popular
operating systems on smartphones, tablets and PCs.
When? There are around 160 MDM tools of various types available today, which, by 2019,
will converge into a much smaller number of mature EMM tools.
Who will be impacted? All organizations wishing to manage and secure mobile devices.
Cautions: Many vendors of today's mobile management and security tools will vanish in the
process of market consolidation, so consider current MDM purchases as a 24-month tactical
decision.
Mobile-Connected Smart Objects
What are they and why are they important? By 2020, an affluent household in a mature
market will contain several hundred smart objects, including LED light bulbs, toys, domestic
appliances, sports equipment, medical devices and controllable power sockets, to name but a
few. These domestic smart objects will be a part of the Internet of Things (IoT), and the
majority of them will be able to communicate in some way with an app on a smartphone or
tablet. Smartphones and tablets will perform many functions, including acting as remote
controls, displaying and analyzing information, interfacing to social networks to monitor
"things" that can tweet or post, paying for subscription services, ordering replacement
consumables and updating object firmware. The combination of smart objects and mobile
apps will enable a very wide range of business opportunities (see Recommended Reading).
When? A small number of smart objects and appliances are available in 2014. Examples
include sensors, thermostats and a few items of larger equipment such as domestic appliances
and air-conditioning units. The range of domestic smart objects will continue to grow through
2025, by which time any nontrivial piece of equipment or furniture costing more than $100
will likely contain sensors.
Who will be impacted? Any company making equipment or products that could be
monitored or controlled by a smartphone owner.
Cautions: Privacy and security will be key concerns for individuals, because many domestic
smart objects will "know" sensitive information, such as whether a house is occupied.
Development of interoperability standards for smart objects will take many years.
LTE and LTE-A
What are they and why are they important? LTE and its successor LTE-A are cellular
technologies that improve spectral efficiency and will push cellular networks to theoretical
peak downlink speeds of up to 1 Gbps. Additional benefits include reduced latency. Real-
world LTE speeds tend to be under 100 Mbps and early LTE-A trials have peaked at around
300 Mbps in best-case conditions. New features such as LTE Broadcast will enable operators
to offer new services.
When? LTE is already partially deployed in many countries. A few LTE-A trials have been
conducted at the end of 2013, although widespread deployment isn't expected to start before
2015, as few LTE-A client devices are available. Once deployment of a technology such as
LTE or LTE-A starts, it typically takes seven to 10 years to achieve nationwide coverage and
user adoption.
Who will be impacted? All users of cellular data benefit from improved bandwidth, reduced
latency and increased capacity. Applications that demand high-speed real-time data such as
streaming video will benefit substantially; so, for example, LTE is allowing some cellular
networks to compete with satellite data for broadcasting applications.
Cautions: Very high-speed networks may encourage some users to consume large amounts
of data and so incur very large charges. Some carriers may struggle to satisfy the demand
generated by new high-bandwidth applications.
Metrics and Monitoring Tools
What are they and why are they important? It's very difficult to predict all aspects of
mobile application and website usage or performance. The diversity of mobile devices makes
comprehensive testing impossible, and the nondeterministic nature of mobile networks and
the cloud services that support them can result in performance bottlenecks. Metrics and
monitoring tools — often known as application performance monitoring (APM) — can help.
They provide visibility into app behavior and crash diagnostics. They also deliver statistics
about which devices and OSs are adopted and monitor user behavior to determine which app
features are being successfully exploited.
When? Mobile metrics and monitoring tools are widely available for apps and mobile
websites from a range of vendors, including Compuware, Crittercism, Keynote and New
Relic .
Who will be impacted? Any business for which the quality and performance of a mobile app
or website are important. Examples include areas such as retail, hospitality, social networking
and financial services.
Cautions: This is an immature market in 2014. New vendors are emerging regularly. Avoid
lock-in to any specific vendor.
Additional research contribution and review were provided by Richard Marshall, Bill
Menezes and Rob Smith.
Gartner Recommended Reading
Some documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.
"Magic Quadrant for Mobile Application Development Platforms"
"Combining Smart Objects With Mobile Apps Creates a New Frontier in Consumer
Innovation"
"Bridge the HTML5, Native App Gaps With Hybrid Approach"
"Technology Overview: Quantified Self"
"Vendor Landscape for Mobile Application Performance Monitoring"
"Prepare to Deal With HTML5 Security Risks"
Evidence
Information sources used in creating this research include Gartner market forecasts;
discussions with clients, vendors and colleagues; and internal Gartner estimates for the future
number of domestic smart objects.
Note 1
The Many Faces of HTML5
HTML5 can be used in many ways by mobile developers wanting to create high-quality
experiences that cross a range of devices and form factors. One common approach is
responsive Web design (RWD), where Web pages and style sheets are designed to format
information appropriately for different devices. A more advanced approach is to use
substantial amounts of client-side JavaScript, often in conjunction with a sophisticated
JavaScript framework such as Sencha or AngularJS to create what's effectively an app written
in JavaScript. This approach is complex, but it can create highly sophisticated experiences.
Note 2
Motivational Applications
The term "motivational applications" refers to apps designed with the intention of creating a
measurable change in some aspect of human behavior.
Note 3
"Quiet" Design
The term "'quiet' design" refers to a set of principles intended to reduce the digital noise of
interfaces to promote a sense of calmness, comfort and control.
Note 4
HEART
HEART is a framework for mobile design and metrics. The acronym stands for happiness,
engagement, adoption, retention and task success. Those are viewed as the key goals of a
mobile app; followers of this approach seek to define and optimize metrics in each of those
areas when creating mobile experiences.
Note 5
Sensors and Ensembles
We expect mobile devices to acquire new sensors (such as for temperature and barometric
pressure) and to use existing sensors such as the camera in new ways (e.g., gesture control).
Wearable accessories will also include various forms of user interface including displays and
haptics. Combining capabilities will enable a range of new user experiences including
"ensembles," interactions that involve multiple devices (for example, a smartphone and a
smart watch)
Note 6
Geomagnetic Location Sensing
Geomagnetic location sensing uses the e-compass on a high-end smartphone to sense the
perturbations in the Earth's magnetic field caused by the structure of a building. It uses this
information to deduce where in the building an individual is located.
Note 7
Smart Lighting
The term "smart lighting" refers to information modulated onto the light emitted by an LED
lamp. This information can be sensed by a smartphone app using the camera or ambient light
sensor.
Note 8
802.11ac Wi-Fi Standards
802.11ac Wave 1 delivers performance levels of up to 1 Gbps. Wave 2 extends this to
approximately 3 Gbps.
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