Download - GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTY Comprehensive Plan Update Land Demand & Development Capacity May 28, 2003
GAINESVILLE HALL COUNTYComprehensive Plan Update
Land Demand & Development Capacity
May 28, 2003
Tonight we will Discuss:
Where we are in the Planning Process
Why we do a Demand and Capacity Analysis
The method and results of the Demand Analysis
The method and results of the Capacity Analysis
Comparison of the Demand to Capacity
What this means for the City/County
Where are we in this process?
Land Demand Analysis
Land Capacity Analysis
Vision and Policy
Development
Plan Development
Implementation Strategy
Project Initiation
Inventories
Public Outreach
Why do a Demand & Capacity Analysis
Identify potential future growth pressures
Identify the current capacity of the City/County to deal with potential growth
To create a baseline for “what if” scenarios
To establish a foundation for the discussion of policy questions How should we prepare for the future?
Caution: These analyses and forecasts represent what could happen if current trends continue and current policies are implemented. They do not reflect a value judgment as to whether they are desirable or not.
What Have We Heard?
Five Consensus Planning Themes:Quality GrowthEfficient GrowthFiscally Sound GrowthUrban and Rural GrowthCoordinated Growth
Five Attributes of Growth
Location of Growth
Amount of Growth
Rate and Timing of Growth
Fiscal Impact of Growth
Quality and Environmental Impact of Growth
The Demand Analysis
Bill Ross
Demand AnalysisMethodology
1. Population and employment forecasts
2. Translate population into dwelling units in different categories
3. Translate employment into land use categories
4. Translate employment into square footage and acreage
Forecasts
Past trends – we looked back: Thirty years (1970-2000)Recent past (the 1990s)
Natural growth process affected by:Market response to land availability Infrastructure constraintsRedevelopment, communication diversityTechnological innovation
Forecasts
Assumptions Past trends represent a valid anticipation of
future change in Hall County and its cities. Those past trends will continue with few changes
in the market forces that created them. Factors that would otherwise limit growth
naturally will not begin to affect growth until the latter portion of the 2030 forecast horizon.
Forecasts
Hall County
2003—2030
Population
162,372—489,366
Employment
95,605—280,792
Hall County Total
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Past Population Future Population
Past Employment Future Employment
Forecasts
Gainesville
2003—2030
Population
29,662—87,309
Employment
51,924—92,088
City of Gainesville
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Past Population Future Population
Past Employment Future Employment
Comparison to Other Counties
30-Year Comparison:
Population
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Gwinnett Co 1970-2000 Cobb Co 1970-2000 Hall Co 2000-2030
Comparison to Other Counties
30-Year Comparison:
Employment
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Gwinnett Co 1970-2000 Cobb Co 1970-2000 Hall Co 2000-2030
Residential DemandSummary--Residential Demand to 2030Hall County and City of Gainesville
Hall County City of Hall County Outside Gainesville Gainesville Total
Single-Family 95,345 10,996 106,341 Two-Family (Duplex) 1,885 913 2,798 Multi-Family 5,487 9,188 14,675 Other 46 - 46
TOTAL New Housing Units 102,762 21,098 123,860
- 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000
Hall OutsideGainesville
Gainesville
Housing Units
2003
2030
Nonresidential DemandSummary--Nonresidential Demand to 2030Hall County and City of Gainesville
Hall County City of Hall County Outside Gainesville Gainesville Total
Total Floor Area IncreaseRetail Commercial 15,252,300 4,397,100 19,649,400Office 12,624,420 3,969,120 16,593,540Industrial 26,875,790 6,263,500 33,139,290Government, Semi-Public 6,698,100 2,007,300 8,705,400
TOTAL Nonres Floor Area 61,450,610 16,637,020 78,087,630
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Hall OutsideGainesville
Gainesville
Nonresidential Floor Area (millions)
2003
2030
Questions about Demand?
The Capacity Analysis
Greg Dale
Capacity Analysis Methodology
1. Identify available land (Gross Land)
2. Identify constraints to land (Net Land)
3. Identify Potential Development Areas (PDAs)
4. Assign Development Density
5. Calculate Residential Unit and Nonresidential Building Area Capacity
How much land is available?
Assumptions Vacant Parcels in City Most land zoned for
agriculture in the County Conservation land, in
floodplains or stream buffers is not available
Certain small fragments of land are not included
Only includes land in Gainesville and unincorporated Hall County
Ac res
138,116
ac res
4,429
ac res
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Gross Avalible Land
Gainesville
Hall County
Net Land
Assumptions The way steep slope
reduces the capacity of land varies
15 % of Gross Land is needed for infrastructure
Gross AcresNet Acres
138,116
acres
4,429
acres
117,399
acres
3,765
acres
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Net Avalible Land
(85 % of Gross)
Gainesville
Hall County
Residential Capacity Assumptions
Calculated for areas currently designated for residential development
Guided by existing Comprehensive Plan, adopted land use density and Zoning Regulations
Different between City and County
High and low scenario
108,109 Net Acres for Residential
76,640Acres
0Acres
28,120Acres
562Acres0
Acres 2,277Acres0
Acres 240Acres0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Hall Co.
Gainesville
Multi-Family
Urban Land (small lots)
Suburban Land (medium lots)
Rural Land (large lots)
Net Residential Acreage
Hall County –104,760 acres
Gainesville- 3,079 acres
Residential Capacity Density Assumptions
Low Residential
Density (Units/acre)
High Residential
Density (Units/Acre)
Agricultural Land (Rural) 0.50 1.00Rural Residential (Rural) 0.50 1.00
Residential Grow th (Suburban) 1.00 2.00Residential (Suburban) 0.66 1.20
A-R Agricultural Residential (Suburban) 1.64 2.18R-1-A Residential (Suburban) 1.64 2.18
R-I Residential (Urban) 3.28 4.37PRD Residential (Urban) 3.28 4.37
R-II Residential (Multi-Family) 6.00 12.00
Unincorporated Hall County
Gainesville
20,321
37,367
9227,417
1,421
1,210
9,774
2,810
5,280 7,040
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Hall Co. (Low) Hall Co. (High) Gainesville
(Low)
Gainesville
(High)
Other (Low) Other (High)
Other Residential
Multi-Family
Urban Homes (on small lots)
Suburban Homes (on medium lots)
Rural Homes (on large lots)
Residential Unit Capacity (Adjusted)
72,922-131,707 Total Units
Nonresidential CapacityAssumptions
Density based on established “floor area ratios”
Capacity calculated for OfficeCommercial/Retail Industrial
13,322 net acres of nonresidential land
Net Nonresidential Acreage
8,610Acres
92Acres
3,189Acres
511Acres
838Acres
80Acres
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Hal
l Co.
Gai
nesv
ille
Commerc ial/Retail
Office
Industrial
Commercial/Retail-918 acres
Office- 3,281 acres
Industrial-9,122 acres
Nonresidential Density Assumptions
Low FAR High FAR
Unincorporated Hall County
Local Retail/Off ice 0.20 0.25Commercial 0.20 0.25
Industrial 0.25 0.30
Gainesville
All Off ice 0.30 0.35All Commercial 0.20 0.25
All Industrial 0.30 0.35
Nonresidential Building Area Capacity (Adjusted)
27,264,530
94,943,118
7,804,597
33,987,379
113,716,821
9,755,748
26,144,736
88,496,164
7,140,139
32,680,955
106,195,383
8,925,176
1,119,794
6,446,954
664,458
1,306,424
7,521,438
830,572
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
Bu
ild
ing
Sq
ua
re F
oo
tag
e
All (Low) All (High) Hall County
(Low)
Hall County
(High)
Gainesville
(Low)
Gainesville
(High)
COMMERCIAL/RETAIL
INDUSTRIAL
OFFICE
130-157 million SF total nonresidential
Capacity Questions ?
Residential Demand vs. Capacity
72,922
131,507 123,860
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
TOTAL
Total Capacity (Low)
Total Capacity (High)
Total Demand
Residential Demand vs. Capacity
72,922
131,507
123,860
37,561
73,506
14,309
21,243
38,577
53,565
7,417
9,774
38,514
5,280 6,8401,421 2,810
14,675
2,798
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
TOTAL Rural (LargeLots)
Suburban(Medium Lots)
Urban (SmallLots)
Other(suburban or
urban)
Multi-Family Two-Family
Total Capacity (Low)
Total Capacity (High)
Total Demand
Single Family
Ne
w U
nits
Nonresidential Demand vs. Capacity
130,012,245
157,459,948
78,087,630 94,943,118
113,716,821
33,139,290
27,264,530
33,987,379
16,593,5407,804,597
9,755,74819,649,400
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
Total Nonresidential Industrial Office Commercial/Retail
Low Capacity (BuildingArea)
High Capacity (BuildingArea)
Nonresidential Demand(Building Area)
Implications ofDemand and Capacity
There is potential market pressure to “build out” most of Hall County under the current planning policies within the planning horizon
This means that we need to be thinking about the “end state” for the City and County
In some ways, this makes the planning simpler – we are not planning for a portion of the county, only to be revisited again and again
Implications ofDemand and Capacity
We should assume that the future pattern of land uses, intensities, densities, and character proposed in this plan is the final patternWe can identify this final pattern relative to the final level of infrastructure needed to support itOnce we establish the final state, then we address how to get there in the most orderly and efficient way, which includes rate of growth issues, the relationship of land use to infrastructure, the allocation of costs of the infrastructure
Next Month:
Examine the demand and capacity further
Where do we have capacity?
Is it in the right places, both from a market perspective, and from a land use perspective?
How does the capacity of different types of residential land use compare to demand?
Next Month:
Is the “end state” suggested by current policies what the community wants to be in 15-30 years?
What are the policy implications for the Comprehensive Plan?
Questions and Comments