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FutureClimateConditionsinFresnoCountyandSurroundingCounties
July2010
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ThisworkislicensedundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution‐Noncommercial‐ShareAlike3.0UnitedStatesLicense.Toviewacopyofthislicense,visithttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by‐nc‐sa/3.0/us/orsendalettertoCreativeCommons,171SecondStreet,Suite300,SanFrancisco,California,94105,USA.
Inordertousethecontentofthispublication,oranypartofthatcontent,youmustattributeyoursourceprominentlyasfollows:“Source:[or“SourcePartlyfrom:”]TheGeosInstitute,www.geosinstitute.org”(noquotes).
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FutureClimateConditionsinFresnoCountyandSurroundingCountiesGeosInstituteMarniE.Koopman,RichardS.Nauman,andJessicaL.Leonard
Supportforthisprojectwasprovidedby:The Kresge Foundation
The MAPSS Team at the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
Conservation Grants Program
Acknowledgements:RayDrapekandRonNeilsonattheUSDAForestServicePacific
NorthwestResearchStationprovidedclimateprojectiondataaswellaslogistical
support.PeteVandeWater,JulieEkstrom,ScottPhillips,BrianCypher,andMichelle
Selmonprovidedvaluablefeedback.WealsoappreciateinsightsprovidedbyPhilMote
withtheOregonClimateChangeResearchInstitute.Thephotosinthisreportarefrom
USFWS,otherfederalsources,andBrianCypher.
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
Introduction 2
Modelsandtheirlimitations 3
Globalclimatechangeprojections 5
ClimateprojectionsforFresnoCountyandsurroundingcounties 6
Temperature 8
Precipitation 14
Snowpackandwateravailability 20
Vegetationandwildfire 21
Carbonstorage 24
SupportingStudies 25
Connectivity 26
Conclusions 27
LiteratureCited 28
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INTRODUCTION
FresnoCountyandthesurroundingcountiesofMadera,Kings,andTularearerichinhistory,culture,andbiologicaldiversity,inadditiontobeingvitalforthenation’sfoodproduction.Thesecountiesextendfromsemi‐desertandagriculturalvalleyfloorallthewaytothecrestoftheSierras.Changestothislandscapeduetoclimatechangearelikelytoaffectlocalresidentsandthenaturalresourcestheyrelyon. ClimaticchangesarealreadyunderwayacrossCaliforniaandarelikelytoincreaseinthecomingdecades.Changestothelocalclimatearelikelytoincludemorefrequentandintensestormsandfloods,extendeddrought,increasedwildfire,andmoreheatwaves.Localcommunitieswillneedtoplanforsuchchangesinordertopreventpotentiallycatastrophicconsequences.Climatechangepresentsuswithaseriouschallengeasweplanforthefuture.Ourcurrentplanningstrategiesatallscales(local,regional,andnational)relyonhistoricaldatatoanticipatefutureconditions.Yetduetoclimatechangeanditsassociatedimpacts,thefutureisnolongerexpectedtoresemblethepast.Thisreportprovidescommunitymembersanddecision‐makersinFresnoCountyandsurroundingcountieswithlocalclimatechangeprojectionsthatarepresentedinawaythatcanhelpthemmakeeducatedlong‐termplanning
decisions.TheclimatechangemodeloutputsinthisreportwereprovidedbytheUSDAForestServicePacificNorthwestResearchStationandmappedbyscientistsattheNationalCenterforConservationScienceandPolicy.Theresultspresentedinthisreportarecomplementarytoanin‐depthstudyofclimatechangeimpactstothecityofFresnoandmuchofthesurroundingarea,completedbyresearchersatCSUFresno(Harmsenetal.2008).Together,thesereportsandanupcomingcompanionreportonthevulnerabilitiesofsocio‐economicsystemsofFresnoCountytoclimatechangeprovidethebasisforinformedplanningefforts.Manyoftheimpactsofclimatechangeareinevitableduetocurrentlevelsofgreenhousegasemissionsalreadyintheatmosphere.Preparingfortheseimpactstoreducetheirseverityiscalled“adaptation”(seeboxbelow).Preventingevenmoresevereimpactsbyreducingfutureemissionsiscalled“mitigation.”MITIGATION=Reducingemissionstopreventrun‐awayclimatechange.Run‐awayclimatechangeoccurswhenpositivefeedbackskickintosuchanextentthatemissionsreductionsarenolongereffective.
ADAPTATION=Planningfortheinevitableimpactsofclimatechangeandreducingourvulnerabilitytothoseimpacts.
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MODELSANDTHEIRLIMITATIONS
Todeterminewhatconditionswemightexpectinthefuture,climatologistscreatedmodelsbasedonphysical,chemical,andbiologicalprocessesthatformtheearth’sclimatesystem.Thesemodelsvaryintheirlevelofdetailandassumptions,makingoutputandfuturescenariosvariable.DifferencesamongmodelsstemfromdifferencesincurrentunderstandingofmanyofEarth’sprocessesandfeedbacks.Takenasagroup,however,climatemodelspresentarangeoflikelyfutureconditions. Mostclimatemodelsprojectthefutureclimateatglobalscales.Formanagersandpolicymakerstomakedecisions,however,theyneedinformationabouthowclimatechangewillimpactthelocalarea.TheMAPSS(MappedAtmosphere‐Plant‐SoilSystem)TeamatthePacificNorthwestResearchStationadjustedglobalmodeloutputtolocalandregionalscales(8km).TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)usesnumerousmodelstomakeglobalclimateprojections.Themodelsaredevelopedbydifferentinstitutionsandcountriesandhaveslightlydifferentinputsorassumptions.Fromthesemodels,theMAPSSTeamchosethreeglobalclimatemodelsthatrepresentedarangeofprojectionsfortemperatureandotherclimatevariables.ThesethreemodelsareHadley(HADCM,fromtheUK),MIROC(fromJapan),andCSIRO(fromAustralia).Whilethespecificinputsarebeyondthescopeof
HIGHCERTAINTY:Highertemperatures–Greaterconcentrationsofgreenhousegasestrapmoreheat.Measuredwarmingtracksmodelprojections.
Lowersnowpack–Highertemperaturescauseashiftfromsnowtorainatlowerelevationsandcauseearliersnowmeltathigherelevations.
Shiftingdistributionsofplants&animals–Relationshipsbetweenspeciesdistributionsandclimatearewelldocumented.MEDIUMCERTAINTY:Moreseverestorms–Changestostormpatternswillberegionallyvariable.
Changesinprecipitation–Currentmodelsshowwidedisagreementonprecipitationpatterns,butthemodelprojectionsconvergeinsomelocations.
Wildfirepatterns–Therelationshipbetweenfireandtemperaturehasbeenwelldocumented,butothercomponentsalsoplayarole(suchasvegetation,below). LOWCERTAINTY:Changesinvegetation–Vegetationmaytakedecadesorcenturiestokeeppacewithchangesinclimate.
Howcertainaretheprojections?
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thisreport,theyincludesuchvariablesasgreenhousegasemissions,airandoceancurrents,iceandsnowcover,plantgrowth,particulatematter,andmanyothers(Randalletal.2007).Thethreemodelschosenincludedspecificvariables,suchaswatervapor,thatwereneededinordertoruntheMC1vegetationmodel.Modeloutputswereconvertedtolocalscalesusinglocaldataonhistorictemperatureandprecipitationpatterns.TheclimatemodeloutputwasappliedtotheMC1vegetationmodel(Bacheletetal.2001),whichprovideddataonpossiblefuturevegetationtypes,biomassconsumedbywildfire,andcarbonsequestration.Theutilityofthemodelresultspresentedinthisreportistohelpcommunitiespicturewhattheconditionsandlandscapemaylooklikeinthefutureandthemagnitudeanddirectionofchange.Becausemodeloutputsvaryintheirdegreeofcertainty,theyareconsideredprojectionsratherthanpredictions(seeinsert).Somemodeloutputs,such
astemperature,havegreatercertaintythanotheroutputs,suchasvegetationtype(seeboxonpreviouspage).However,muchuncertaintyassociatedwithmodelprojectionsarisesduetouncertaintyinfuturegreenhousegasemissions.Weurgethereadertokeepinmindthatresultsarepresentedtoexplorethetypesofchangeswemaysee,butthatactualconditionsmaybequitedifferentfromthosedepictedinthisreport.Uncertaintyassociatedwithprojectionsoffutureconditionsshouldnotbeusedasareasonfordelayingactiononclimatechange.Thelikelihoodthatfutureconditionswillresemblehistoricconditionsisverylow,somanagersandpolicymakersareencouragedtobegintoplanforaneraofchange,eveniftheprecisetrajectoryorrateofsuchchangeisuncertain.
ClimateprojectionAmodel‐derivedestimateofthefutureclimate.
ClimatepredictionorforecastAprojectionthatishighlycertainbasedonagreementamongmultiplemodels.
ScenarioAcoherentandplausibledescriptionofapossiblefuturestate.Ascenariomaybedevelopedusingclimateprojectionsasthebasis,butadditionalinformation,includingbaselineconditionsanddecisionpathways,isneededtodevelopascenario.
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GLOBALCLIMATECHANGEPROJECTIONS
TheIPCC(2007)andtheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram(2009)agreethattheevidenceis“unequivocal”thattheEarth’satmosphereandoceansarewarming,andthatthiswarmingisdueprimarilytohumanactivitiesincludingtheemissionofCO2,methane,andothergreenhousegases,alongwithdeforestation.Averageglobalairtemperaturehasalreadyincreasedby0.7°C(1.4°F)andisexpectedtoincreaseby2°‐6.4°C(11.5°F)withinthenextcentury(Figure1).TheIPCCemissionscenariousedinthisassessmentwasthe“business‐as‐usual”trajectory(A2)thatassumesthatmostnationsfailtoacttoloweremissions.IftheU.S.andotherkeynationsdrasticallyandimmediatelycutemissions,someofthemoresevereimpacts,likerun‐awayclimatechange,canstillbeavoided.
Duetoclimatesysteminertia,restabilizationofatmosphericgaseswilltakemanydecadesevenwithdrasticemissionsreductions.Reducingemissions(called“mitigation”)isvitaltopreventtheEarth’sclimatesystemfromreachingcertaintippingpointsthatwillleadtosuddenandirrevocablechanges.Inadditiontoemissionsreductions,planningforinevitablechangestriggeredbygreenhousegasesalreadypresentintheatmosphere(called“adaptation)willallowresidentsofFresnoCountyandthesurroundingareatoreducethenegativeimpactsofclimatechangeand,hopefully,maintaintheirquality‐of‐lifeasclimatechangeprogresses.Throughoutthisreportwepresentmidandlatecenturymodeloutputs.Midcenturyprojectionsarehighlylikely,duetogreenhousegasesalreadyreleased,butlate
centuryprojectionsmaychange,dependingonfutureemissions.
Figure1.Thelast1,000yearsinglobalaveragetemperatures,incomparisontoprojectedtemperaturesthrough2100.Drasticcutsingreenhousegasemissions(bestcasescenario)wouldleadtoanincreaseofabout2°Cby2100,whilethecurrenttrajectory(business‐as‐usual)willleadtoanincreasecloserto4.5°Candashighas6°C(adaptedfromIPCC2007).
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CLIMATEPROJECTIONSFORFRESNOANDSURROUNDINGCOUNTIES VariablesmodeledusingHADCM,CSIRO,MIROC,andthevegetationmodel(MC1)includetemperature,precipitation,vegetationtypeanddistribution,wildfire,andcarbonstorageinbiomass.Thesevariableswerecalculatedbasedonhistoricaldataformakingbaselinecomparisons,andwereprojectedoutto2100.TheseprojectionsrepresentalikelyrangeofpossiblefutureconditionsinFresnoCountyandthesurroundingcounties.Asclimatechangeplaysout,wemaybeabletomakemorecertainprojections.Wemayalsoexperiencesurprisesandunforeseenchainsofcause‐and‐effectthatcouldnothavebeenprojected.
Climatechangeprojectionsareprovidedhereinthreedifferentformats–asoverallaverages,asgraphsthatshowchangeovertime,andasmapsthatshowvariationacrosstheregion,butaveragedacrossyears.Wemappedclimateandvegetationvariablesforthehistoricalperiod(1961‐1990)andfortwofutureperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85).BecauseofthedifferenceinclimatebetweentheSierrasandthevalleyfloor,wecalculatedmodeloutputforeasternareasover1,000feetinelevationseparatelyfromotherareas(Figure2).Welabelthesetwoareasthe“Upper”and“Lower”FresnoCountyRegion.
Figure2.Areasreferredtointhisreportas“Upper”and“Lower”FresnoCountyregion.TheUpperFresnoCountyRegionisgenerallyabove1,000feetinelevationandisfoundintheeasternportionsofFresno,Madera,andTularecounties,whiletheLowerFresnoCountyRegionisgenerallybelow1,000feetinelevationandencompasseswesternportionsofFresno,Madera,andTularecountiesaswellasallofKingsCounty.
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Figure3.LandownershipinFresnoCountyandsurroundingcounties.
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TEMPERATURETheprojectionsfromallthreemodelsagree,withhighcertainty,onawarmerfutureforFresnoCountyandsurroundingcounties(Table1).TheupperFresnoCountyregionisprojectedtowarmslightlymorethanthelowerFresnoCountyregion.Otherstudiesindicateanincreaseinnighttimelowtemperatures.Daytimehighsarecurrentlybufferedbyhumidityfromirrigation.
Table1.ProjectedincreaseinaveragetemperatureintheupperandlowerFresnoCountyregions(seeFig.2fordetails),fromthreedifferentglobalclimatemodels.FutureprojectedtemperatureisshownaschangeindegreesFahrenheit,ascomparedtohistoricaverages(1961‐1990). Historic 2035‐45 2075‐85 Season Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Annual 46.4°F 62.3°F +2.5‐4.8°F +2.3‐4.3°F +5.2‐8.9°F +4.7‐8.2°F Summer 61.3°F 78.0°F +2.2‐6.0°F +2.0‐5.4°F +5.8‐11.0°F +5.2‐10.0°F Winter 33.9°F 47.0°F +2.2‐4.1°F +2.0‐3.8°F +4.1‐7.9°F +3.7‐7.4°F
Figure5.AverageannualtemperatureforthelowerFresnoregion,basedonhistoricdataandmodelprojectionsfromthreeglobalclimatemodels.
Figure4.AverageannualtemperaturefortheupperFresnoCountyregion,basedonhistoricdataandmodelprojectionsfromthreeglobalclimatemodels.
UpperFresnoCountyRegion
LowerFresnoCountyRegion
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Figures6and7.Averagehistoricandfuturemonthlytemperaturesinareasabove1000feetinelevation(top)andbelow1000feet(bottom).Bluebarsshowhistoricaveragetemperaturewhiletheorangeshaperepresentstherangeofprojectionsfromthethreeglobalclimatemodels.Theaverageforthetwofuturetimeperiodsisinpurple(2035‐45)andred(2075‐85).
UpperFresnoCountyRegion
LowerFresnoCountyRegion
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Figure8.Januarytemperature(top)andchangeintemperature(bottom),indegreesF.
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MIROC HADCM CSIRO
January Change in Temperature
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
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Figure9.Apriltemperature(top)andchangeintemperature(bottom),indegreesF.
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Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
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Figure10.Julytemperature(top)andchangeintemperature(bottom),indegreesF.
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Figure11.Octobertemperature(top)andchangeintemperature(bottom)indegreesF.
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Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
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Change in Temperature in Degrees Celsius
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Increase
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23.1 – 27.5
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32.1 – 36.5
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41.1 – 45.5
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59.1 – 63.5
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68.1 – 72.5
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0-1.8 1.9-3.4 3.5-6.2 6.3-7.8 7.9-9.6 9.7-11.3 11.4-13 13.1-14.4
ChangeindegreesFahrenheit
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PRECIPITATIONProjectionsforfutureprecipitationvariedamongthethreemodels(Fig.13‐14),butallthreemodelsagreedondrierconditions,onaverage,bylatecentury,especiallyinthespring(Fig.15‐16).InaseriesofreportsreleasedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommission,asetofsixmodelsshowedconsensusonadrierclimateforCentralCalifornia(Westerlingetal.2009).Further,evenwithsubstantialincreasesinprecipitation,soilmoistureisexpectedtodeclineduetoincreasedairtemperatureandevaporation,effectivelycausingincreaseddroughtconditions.
Figure13.AverageannualprecipitationacrosstheupperFresnoregion(above1000feet),basedonhistoricaldata(blackline)andthreeglobalclimatemodelsprojectedoutto2100(averagesarefoundonthenextpage).
Figure14.AverageannualprecipitationacrossthelowerFresnoregion(below1000feet),basedonhistoricaldata(blackline)andthreeglobalclimatemodelsprojectedoutto2100(averagesarefoundonthenextpage).
UpperFresnoCountyRegion
LowerFresnoCountyRegion
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Table2.Averagehistorical(1961‐1990)precipitation,ininches,andchangesinprojectedprecipitationfortwotimeperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85)basedonprojectionsfromthreeglobalclimatemodels.Timeperiod Averageprecipitation(%changefromhistoric)
LowerFresnoregion UpperFresnoregionHistoric 9.4in. 29.9in.2035‐45 6.9‐10.6in.(‐27%to+13%) 21.7–33.6in.(‐28%to+12%)2075‐85 6.8‐8.8in.(‐28%to‐7%) 20.5–28.2in.(‐32%to‐6%)
Figure15.Monthlyhistoric(1960‐1991)andfutureprecipitationintheupperFresnoCountyregion(above1000feet),fortwotimeperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85).Averagefutureprecipitationwasderivedfromthreeglobalclimatemodels,andisexpectedtofallwithintheorangeandredareas.
Figure16.Monthlyhistoric(1960‐1991)andfutureprecipitationinthelowerFresnoCountyregion(below1000feet),fortwotimeperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85).Averagefutureprecipitationwasderivedfromthreeglobalclimatemodels,andisexpectedtofallwithintheorangeandredareas.
UpperFresnoCountyRegion
LowerFresnoCountyRegion
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Figure17.Januaryprecipitation(top)andchangeinprecipitation(bottom),inmm.
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MIROC HADCM CSIRO
January Change in Precipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
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Kilometers ´
Change in Precipitation in Millimeters
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JanuaryPrecipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
Monthly Mean Precipitation in Millimeters
197 - 216
217 - 235
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256 - 274
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Figure18.Aprilprecipitation(top)andchangeinprecipitation(bottom),inmm.
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AprilPrecipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
Monthly Mean Precipitation in Millimeters
197 - 216
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April Change in Precipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
0 40 80 120 16020
Kilometers ´
Change in Precipitation in Millimeters
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Figure19.Julyprecipitation(top)andchangeinprecipitation(bottom),inmm.
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JulyPrecipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
Monthly Mean Precipitation in Millimeters
197 - 216
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Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
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Figure20.Octoberprecipitation(top)andchangeinprecipitation(bottom),inmm.
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OctoberPrecipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
Monthly Mean Precipitation in Millimeters
197 - 216
217 - 235
236 - 255
256 - 274
275 - 294
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373 - 392
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MIROC HADCM CSIRO
October Change in Precipitation
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
0 40 80 120 16020
Kilometers ´
Change in Precipitation in Millimeters
-105
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SnowpackandWaterAvailabilityAstemperatureswarm,precipitationisexpectedtoincreasinglyfallasraininsteadofsnow.Inaddition,snowmeltisexpectedtooccurearlier(Hayhoeetal.2004).Historicaldataindicatesthatpeaksnowmassoccursfivedaysearlierthanitdidpriorto1930,andthatspringtemperaturesare1.2°Fwarmerthanpriorto1948(KapnickandHall2009).ProjectionsforfuturesnowpackthroughouttheSierraNevadarangeindicateapotentiallossof80%ofsnowpackbytheendofthecentury(Fig.21)underamoderatewarmingscenario.Snowpackisexpectedtobeevenlowerunderahighwarmingscenario(thecurrenttrajectory).Asincreasingtemperaturesleadtoshiftsfromsnowtorain,higher,butearlier,peakrunoffisexpected.Combinedwiththelikelihoodofmoreintenseprecipitationeventsandincreasingrain‐on‐snowevents,scientistspredictmoreintenserunoffandflooding(CANaturalResourcesAgency2009;Heetal.Inreview).TheCaliforniawatersystemisespeciallyvulnerabletoglobalwarmingduetoitsdependenceonmountainsnowaccumulationandthesnowmeltprocess(VicunaandDracup2007).Projectionsshowlowerstreamflow,lowerreservoirstorage,anddecreasedwatersupplydeliveriesandreliability,expectedtobeespeciallypronouncedlaterinthe21stCentury(Vicunaetal.2007).Groundwaterisalsoexpectedtodeclineduetoincreaseddemandandloweredrecharge.Earlierpeakrun‐off,moreintensestormsthatquicklywashthroughthesystem,andlowersnowpacklevelsallcontributetodeclininggroundwaterrecharge. Figure21.Current(left)andfuture(right)snowpackforCaliforniaonApril1(fromHayhoeetal.2004).Reductionsinsnowpackareafunctionofdecliningprecipitation,greaterproportionofprecipitationasraininsteadofsnow,andearlierspringsnowmelt.
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VEGETATIONandWILDFIREThevegetationmodel(MC1)providedprojectionsforpredominantvegetationtypes(Figure22)andaverageannualbiomassconsumedbywildfire(Figure23).TheMC1vegetationmodelonlymakesprojectionsfornativevegetationtypesanddoesnotaccountforlandusechange(i.e.agricultureanddevelopment)orintroducedspecies(i.e.nonnativegrasses).Projectionsforchangesinvegetationtypesincludeashiftfromtemperategrasslandtosubtropicalgrasslandatlowerelevations.Becausethevalleyfloorisdominatedbynon‐nativegrasses,thisshiftmaynotberealized.Alossoftemperateshrublandonthevalleyfloorbymid‐centuryisalsoprojected,althoughmuchofthisvegetationtypehasalreadybeenlosttoagricultureanddevelopment.Athigherelevations,vegetationchangeisapparentinareasthatarecurrentlydominatedbysequoiaandmixedconifer(currentlysugarpine,whitefir,incensecedar,etc.).Lowerelevationconifers,suchasgraypine,mayspreadtohigherelevations,whilehighelevationspeciescouldbelost.Despitechangedgrowingconditions,vegetationcantakedecadesorcenturiestoadjust,especiallyathigherelevationswhereconditionswillbecomemorehospitabletoforestbutsoilwilltakedecadesorcenturiestodevelop.Mechanismsforvegetationchangeatlowerelevationsarelikelytobedrought,fire,invasivespecies,insectsanddisease.Westerlingetal.(2009)projectedsubstantialincreasesintotalaverageareaburnedbywildfire,withtheeasternportionsofFresno,Tulare,andMaderaCountiesexpectedtoexperience300‐400%greateracreageburnedby2085ascomparedtothehistoric(1961‐1990)amount(Figure24).Similarly,theMC1modelprojects2‐4timesgreaterbiomassconsumedbywildfire(Figure23)athigherelevationsbytheendofthecentury.
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Figure22.TheMC1modelshowssuitablegrowingconditionsfornativetypesofvegetation,butnotactualvegetationornon‐nativevegetation.Land‐usechanges,suchasagricultureorhousing,arealsonotreflectedinthisoutput.Actualvegetationinthefuturewilldependnotonlyonclimateconditions,butalsoonlanduse,non‐nativespecies,andresponsetimeneededforchangesfromonetypetoanother(newforesttypesdonotoccurovernight,forexample,astheymayneeddecadesorcenturiestobecomeestablished).
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VegetationType
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
0 40 80 120 16020
Kilometers ´
MC1 Vegetation Classification
Subalpine Forest
Maritime Evergreen Needleleaf Forest
Temperate Evergreen Needleleaf Forest
Temperate Evergreen Needleleaf Woodland
Temperate Shrubland
Temperate Grassland
Temperate Desert
Subtropical Mixed Forest
Subtropical Mixed Savanna
Subtropical Shrubland
Subtropical Grassland
Subtropical Desert
Mixed High Elevation
High Elevation Grasslands
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Figure23.AverageannualbiomassconsumedbywildfireinFresnoCountyandsurroundingcounties,shownforthehistoricalperiod(1960‐1991)andprojectedfortwofutureperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85),usingthreeglobalclimatemodels.
Figure24.Predictedchangeinburnedareain2085comparedtohistoricalperiod.Avalueof100%indicatesnochangewhileavalueof400%indicatesa4‐foldincrease.Resultsareshownfromtwoglobalclimatemodels.FigureadaptedfromWesterlingetal.(2009).
CNRM CM3 GFDL CM21
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AnnualBiomass Consumed
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
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Kilometers ´
Consumed Biomass
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in grams per square meter
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CARBONSTORAGEAllthreeglobalclimatemodelsindicatealossofcarbonstoragebylate‐century(2075‐85),primarilyintheSierraNevadarange.Alossofcarbonstorageresultsfromvegetationdie‐backorwildfire.ThisindicatesthatportionsoftheSierraNevadarangecouldbecomeacarbonsource,ratherthansink,withinthenextcentury.ThisresultissupportedbyaUSDAForestServicestudyonforestmanagementstrategiesformaintainingcarbonstoresonnationalforestlandsinthisregion(USDA2009).Figure25.AverageannualcarbonstorageinvegetationinFresnoCountyandsurroundingcounties,shownforthehistoricalperiod(1960‐1991)andprojectedfortwofutureperiods(2035‐45and2075‐85),usingthreeglobalclimatemodels.
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AnnualVegetation Carbon
Data provided by the US Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Study
Fresno Region
0 40 80 120 16020
Kilometers ´
Carbon Stored in Vegetation
0 - 2,250
2,251 - 4,500
4,501 - 6,750
6,751 - 9,000
9,001 - 11,250
11,251 - 13,500
13,501 - 15,750
15,751 - 18,000
18,001 - 20,250
20,251 - 22,500
22,501 - 24,750
24,751 - 27,000
in grams per square meter
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SUPPORTINGSTUDIES
TheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC)sponsoredalargebodyofresearchintothepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeacrossthestate.Manyofthereportsfromthiseffortwerereleasedin2009.Forconsistency,authorsofthesereportsallusedthesamesetofglobalclimatemodelsformakingtheirprojections.Thesemodelsweredifferentthanthethreeusedinthisreport,whichwerechosenbyresearchersatthePacificNWResearchStationtorepresentarangeoffutureconditions.Evenwithdifferentmodels,however,theresultsfrommanyCECreportsagreewithorcomplementtheresultsinthisreport,providinggreaterconfidenceintheresultspresentedhere.Usingthesamevegetationmodel(MC1)butdifferentclimatemodelsthanours,Shawetal.(2009)alsoprojectsadeclineinconiferousforestintheeasternportionsofFresno,Madera,andTularecounties,withexpansionofhardwoodforest.Shrublandsarealsoexpectedtoexpand,attheexpenseofgrasslands.Inaddition,theirstudyprojectedsteepdeclinesinforageproductioninthefoothillsoftheSierrasinthesamethreecounties(Figure25).Inanotherstudy,Loarieetal.(2008)modeledpotentialrangeshiftsofendemicplantspeciesthroughoutCalifornia.Themodelingexerciserevealedthatupto1/3ofallspecieswillbeextirpatediftheyareunabletomovetonewareas.Speciesdiversityisexpectedtoremainhigherathigherelevationsandalongthecoast.Kueppersetal.(2005)modeledshiftsinrangefortwospeciesofoak,blueoakandvalleyoak,throughoutthestate,usingtwodifferentclimatemodels(oneregionalandoneglobal).BothoaksexperiencedrangecontractionsintheFresnoregionby2080‐2099,accordingtothemodels,butthegeographiccomplexityoftheareamayresultinrangeexpansionaswell.
Figure25.Netchangeinforageproductionby2070‐2099,basedontwoclimatemodelsundertheA2emissionsscenario.Orangeorbrownrepresentadeclineinforageproduction,whilebluerepresentsanincreaseinforageproduction.(FigurefromShawetal.2009)
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CONNECTIVITY
Astheclimatechanges,animalsandplantsareexpectedtorespondinvariousways.Mostspecieswillneedtomovetonewareaswheretheclimateissuitable.Somespeciesareonlyabletomoveshortdistancesduetonaturallimitationssuchaslowdispersalrates,inhospitableterrain,oralackofdispersalagents.Otherspeciesmaybelimitedbydevelopment,roadplacement,orlossofhabitatinnewareas.Incontrast,weedyorinvasivespeciesareexpectedtoeasilymoveinresponsetothechangingclimateandcouldincreaseinabundanceandrange.InordertominimizethedeclineandpotentialextirpationofmanyofCalifornia’snativespecies,threeprimaryapproachestothedispersalproblem(outlinedabove)havebeenrecommended.Byfarthemostimportantapproachistomaintainandincreasehabitatconnectivityandcorridorsacrosscounties,regions,states,andeventheentirewesternU.S.Thisapproachrequiresalevelofcollaborationandcommunicationacrosslandownershipthatiscurrentlynon‐existent.AreasofFresnoCountyandthesurroundingcountieshavebeenidentifiedasespeciallyimportantforlong‐termmovementofanimalsandplantsamongnaturalareas(Figure26).Facilitateddispersal(translocation)isrecommendedforspecieswithlimitedabilitiesandopportunitiesfornaturaldispersal.Facilitateddispersalwillneedtobecarefullyconsideredandplanned,astherearemanypotentiallyundesirableconsequences.Inaddition,costandfailurerateareoftenhigh.Finally,aggressivecontrolofundesirableinvasiveandweedyspecieswillbeneededtoallowmoredesirablenativespeciestheopportunitytodisperseandbecomeestablishedinnewareas.Figure26.AreasimportantforhabitatconnectivityintheFresnoregion.Greenareasarelargelynaturalareaswhileyellowandredareasareimportantconnectorsthatwouldbemorecostlytoconserve(adaptedfromSpenceretal.2010).
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CONCLUSIONS
Thepurposeofthisreportistoprovideup‐to‐dateclimateprojectionsforFresno,Madera,Kings,andTulareCountiesatascalethatcanbeusedincommunityplanningefforts.Byprovidingtheinformationthatlocalmanagers,decision‐makersandcommunitymembersneedtomakeday‐to‐daydecisionsandlong‐termplans,wehopetospurproactiveclimatechangeadaptationplanning.Manyoftheimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyprogressingandwillcontinuetoacceleratethroughoutthenextfewdecades,regardlessoffutureemissions.Forinstance,projectionsforthetimeperiodof20352045arehighlylikelytobecomereality.Whetherwelimitclimatechangetothislevelorcontinuetoprogresstowardsthelevelprojectedfor20752085andbeyondwilldependonwhethertheU.S.andotherkeynationschoosetoloweremissionsdrasticallyandimmediately.Theprojectionsprovidedinthisreportareintendedtoformthefoundationforcity,county,andregionaladaptationplanningforclimatechange.Ourprogram,calledtheClimateWise®program,strivestobuildco‐beneficialplanningstrategiesthatarescience‐based,aredevelopedbylocalcommunitymembers,andincreasetheresilienceofbothhumanandnaturalcommunitiesinacohesivemanner.Thisprocesswilltakeplaceinaseriesofworkshopsinvolvingexpertsinthefollowingsectors:naturalecosystems(terrestrialandaquatic),built(infrastructure,culverts,etc.),human(health,emergencyresponse,etc.),economic(agriculture,business,etc.)andcultural(NativeAmericantribalcustomsandrights,immigrantcommunitiesandcustoms,etc.).TheClimateWise®programisstructuredtobegintheplanningprocessinlocalcommunities,andto“scaleup”managementstrategiestothestateandfederallevelbyidentifyingneededchangesinpolicyandgovernancestructure.Duringthelocalplanningprocess,expertsfromdifferentsectorswillidentifybarrierstosoundmanagement,allowingustoaddresstheselimitingfactorsbycollaboratingwithlawmakers.PleasecontactMarniKoopmanattheNationalCenterforConservationScienceandPolicyformoreinformationortobecomeinvolvedinthisprocess([email protected];541‐482‐4459x303).
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LITERATURECITED
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