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Future Trends: From Geocities to Geo-located Cities:
How the Future of the Social Web is Local
Presented by Danny Brown - March 09 2012
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In the beginning, there was darkness…
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And then Yahoo said, “Let there be light…”
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The cult of Online Communities was born
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All was not lost, though – a hero was waiting in the wings…
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All was not lost, though – a hero was waiting in the wings…
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The Geek shall inherit the earth…
2004
1 million users
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2005
5.5 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2006
12 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2007
30 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2008
100 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2009
350 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2010
500 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2011
800 million users
The Geek shall inherit the earth…
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2012
1 BILLION USERS
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The secret? The trick?
Simplicity & forced UI
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So where now?
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BIG Data
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True CommunityLeverage
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True PeerCommerce
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MOBILE IS UBIQUITOUS
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APPLE vs. ANDROID
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Both platforms continue to grow in both total
numbers and smartphone market share as RIM’s
Blackberry and Windows Phone shrink
That said, with Android and iOS’
combined smartphone share reaching
towards 85%, we start to wonder where
the saturation point will be – soon
enough, it’ll be a true duopoly.
Then both operating systems will have
no one but each other to take users
from.
4
Apple vs. Android
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• While Android’s rise to the top of the smartphone world has been nothing short of meteoric, it looks like the gravy train slowed somewhat at the tail end of 2011.
• While 62% of first-time smartphone buyers chose Android in October 2011, by December only 47% did.
3
Apple vs. Android
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• While Android’s rise to the top of the smartphone world has been nothing short of meteoric, it looks like the gravy train slowed somewhat at the tail end of 2011.
• While 62% of first-time smartphone buyers chose Android in October 2011, by December only 47% did.
• Without a doubt, it was Apple’s release of the iPhone 4S on October 14th.
3
Apple vs. Android
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Near Field Communications – Mobile payments technology will see 2012 as transition year, with the number of NFC-enabled smart-phones expected to double from 2011 levels of 90 MM
8
Mobile Is Ubiquitous
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7
Mobile Is Ubiquitous
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THE TABLET WARS
TABLET WARS
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The chasm between younger and older generations in terms of computer usage will become apparent in 2012 with the rise of tablet PCs.
10
Tablet Wars
Younger users increasingly are turning to tablets and smartphones as their primary means of computing and accessing the Internet.
This year will reveal to a large degree whether the PC can remain relevant to younger users.
“Shipments of tablets are expected to approach 250 million units in 2017”
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India's finally got its much hyped ultra-low-cost tablet, Aakash.
The government is buying the first units of the device for Rs 2250 each from a British company which is assembling the devices in India. They will initially be given to students for free in a pilot run of 100,000 units. (runs on Android) In India already, consumers have a choice of 90 tablet models from over 40 different manufacturers. IDC India estimates 160,000 tablets shipped in the country in 2011 and estimates a volume of 2,650,000 tablets in 2012.
Can India lead in tablet distribution?
10
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Market dynamics: Emerging middle class buyers are the sweet spot
Indian mobile phone manufacturers like Lava and Micromax are in the process of of launching tablets in this mass market segment, which Jaideep Mehta, VP and Manager at IDC India, believes will intensify the competition and drive volume growth.
Is a price war inevitable? Probably
The unique selling proposition of all the players is value for money. This means feature-rich tablets at affordable prices with relevant local content.
11
Mobile Commerce
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• About 100 MM tablets expected to be sold in 2012, more than doubling the 47 million sold last year.
• It took 40 years for 5% of households to own TV sets; it will take less than 3 years for 5% of homes to reach the two tablet threshold
12
Deloitte Stats
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12
The Future?
1. Mobile2. Local3. Peer commerce4. Big data
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QUESTIONS?
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THANK YOU