Download - Financial projections_Dec.ppt
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How to make your How to make your own financial own financial projectionsprojections
TechBATechBA
December 2006December 2006
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About the AuthorAbout the Author• Education
– MBA in Babson College (Wellesley, MA) (Business School for Entrepreneurs)
– Industrial Engineering La Salle University• Labor Experience
– Mexicana de Aviación• Chief Financial Officer (Debt re-estructuring, project
evaluation, budget)– AeroMéxico
• Treasurer (Evaluate aircraft leases, manage working capital & bank loans)
– Grupo Nacobre• Strategic Planning Manager (Develop business strategies,
evaluate companies strategic position)– Consultoría Directiva
• Business Consultant (Develop & evaluate Business Plans)– SONRICS (Sabritas’ Candy & Sweet Snack Division)
• Author of PRONOSTIC - a financial projection modeling software tool (more than 16,000 copies sold)
• Contact : [email protected]
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ObjectivesObjectives
• Set the conceptual framework for using financial projections
• Define general concepts of a financial business model
• Present a real case _ MEDIDA, Inc.
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“There is no favorable wind for those who do not
know where to go”Christopher Columbus
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The Most Important The Most Important Financial ToolFinancial Tool
“A model for Financial Projections is the
most important tool for business analysis and decision making
process”
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TechBA SV Financial Projection TechBA SV Financial Projection ModelModel
TechBA has developed a financial projection model
that is helping the companies to analyze and
evaluate their business plans, determine the right track, estimate company´s value and compare action
plan options
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Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework
• Historic financial information is limited on estimating future performance of the company
• It‘s like driving a car just using the front mirror
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Common development steps Common development steps for a Company for a Company
Idea &Idea &TechnologyTechnologyDevelopmentDevelopment
Company Company EstablishmentEstablishment
Commercial Commercial & Service& ServiceDevelopmentDevelopment
GrowthGrowth
MaturityMaturity
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Common development steps Common development steps for for any company any company
Stages of a Company StartupStartup Early StageEarly Stage
TempranaTempranaGrowthGrowth
CrecimientoCrecimientoMezzanineMezzanine
Characteristics 1)Desarrollo del concepto de negocio
2)Desarrollo o selección del producto o servicio
3)Creación de prototipos y pruebas
4)Adquisición de inventario
1)Creación de procesos
2)Desarrollo organizacional
3)Desarrollo de ventas locales
4)Desarrollo de atención a clientes
1)Crecimiento de ventas
2)Incremento del capital de trabajo (Inventarios, Cartera, cuentas por pagar)
3)Expansión de la capacidad
1)Búsqueda de nuevos productos o servicios
2)Fusión o adquisición de otras empresas
3)Búsqueda de mercados internacionales
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Special path for Technology Special path for Technology CompaniesCompanies
• Some technology companies may follow an accelerated growth path.– Product or product like services– Scalable products– Masive consumption
Cellular phone
Copier
Spread sheet
IP phone
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Technology Adoption Technology Adoption ModelModel
Type of user Entusiastas Tecnológicos
Visionarios ABISMO
Pragmáticos
Conserva-dores
Escépticos
Characteristic 1)Buscan novedades para probar
2)No necesitan estar terminadas
3)El precio no es importante
4)Es un segmento muy chico
1)Buscan soluciones con potencial
2)Soluciones que tengan potencial de ser estándar
3)El precio no es importante
4)Es un segmento chico
Es crítico para una empresa brincar el abismo si desea crecer y participar en los segmentos de mercado grandes
1)Deben soluciones probadas y terminadas
2)Es importante costo / beneficio
3)Debe haber otros usuarios grandes (peers) que usen la solución
1)Debe ser una solución estándar
2)El precio debe ser bajo
3)Debe ser muy fácil de usar
4)Debe ser muy fácil de aprender
5)Es un segmento grande
1)Debe ser una oferta
2)Es un producto genérico
3)Es un segmento chico
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Special Path for Special Path for Technology Co.Technology Co.
StepsBefore Before startingstarting Startup o Startup o
InitialInitialEarly StageEarly Stage AcceleratedAccelerated
GrowthGrowthMezzanineMezzanine
1) Investiga-ción y desarrollo de producto
2)Desarrollo de prototipos
1) Investiga-ción y desarrollo de producto
2)Desarrollo de prototipos
3)Primeros clientes
4)Adecuación de producto
1)Mantener a la empresa con bajo nivel de ventas, mientras se consigue brincar el abismo
1)Crecimiento explosivo del capital de trabajo
2)Fuerte incremento de capacidad
3)Desarrollo de proveedores
4)Desarrollo de canales
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Financial Needs Financial Needs
Stages of a Company Startup o Startup o
InicialInicialEarly StageEarly Stage
TempranaTempranaGrowthGrowth
CrecimientCrecimientoo
MezzanineMezzanine
Financial Needs 1)Desarrollo del producto o servicio
2)Creación de la empresa (gastos de arranque)
3)Capital de arranque
- Equipo- Local- Adecuación4)Adquisición
de inventario
1)Operación del negocio
2)Reposición de inventario
3)Periodos de estacionalidad o intermitencia en ingresos (proyectos)
1)Financiar capital de trabajo
- Inventario- Cartera2)Incrementar
capacidad de producción
3)Abrir nuevos canales de comercialización
4)Desarrollo de la fuerza de ventas
1)Financiar nuevos proyectos
2)Compra de empresas
3)Compra de nueva tecnología
4)Apertura de canales en el extranjero
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Financial Offering in MéxicoFinancial Offering in México
Stages
Startup o Startup o InicialInicial
Early Early StageStage
TempranaTemprana
GrowthGrowth
CrecimientoCrecimientoMezzanineMezzanineType of Funding
Fondos del gobierno
Crédito CONACYT – Credito/Estimulo Fiscal (Proy.Tecnológicos)
Capital CONACYT - Fondos Mixtos y Sectoriales (Proy.Tecnológicos)
CONACYT – Ultima Milla
FONDO PYME –+ OI (1) Creación y Fortalecimiento de empresas
FONDO PYME + OI (4) Apoyo al financiamiento
BID(2) + Intermediario(BID / MIF) (3) + Intemediario(BID / IIC) (4) + Intermediario
Fondos Privados
Crédito F,F & F F,F & F Créditos bancariosArrendamientosFactoraje
Créditos bancariosArrendamientosFactoraje
Capital F,F & FEmprendedor
Angel Capital VentureCapital,Fondos privados (AMEXCAP(1))
IPOPrivate equityM&A
Fondos Mixtos
Crédito CONACYT/NAFIN ( Fondo de Garantias + Línea de crédito bancario)
Capital NAFIN ( Programa de apoyo a Emprendedores + Inversionistas angel)
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Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework
• To access this offerings the entrepreneur needs to:– Define a Business Model– Create a Business Plan– Make the Financial Projections– Build a sound business
credibility• Have a powerful Value Offer• Deliver a clear message• Gather evidence of success• Deliver successfully
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Financial ProjectionsFinancial ProjectionsDefinitionDefinition
A Financial Projection Model reflects “The Business Concept” with numbers
• Business Model• Business Plan
– Comercial– Operation
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Business ModelBusiness ModelWhat are you offering and how are you going to sell it
– Product• Market• Price
– Competence– Cost / Benefit Analysis
• Complementary offering– How to sell it
• Direct sale• Through distribution channels• Internet
– Sources of Revenue• Direct sales• Lease• Additional services• Maintenance• Upgrades
– Commercial & Operation Strategy & Process• Manufacture in Mexico• Finish product in USA• Manufacture in USA
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Business PlanBusiness Plan
• Customers Pain• Your Solution (Products / Services)• Target Markets• Main Competition• Competitive Advantages• Intelectual Property• Business Model• Commercial and Operational Process• Management• Financials (Historic & Projections)• Funds (Sought & Utilization)• Investment (Terms and Conditions)• Return on Investment
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Uses of Financial Uses of Financial ProjectionsProjections
1. Validate your Business Plan2. Evaluate business options and
projects1. New products2. New markets3. New technology
3. Control the company4. Estimate your company value5. Request loans and funding6. Seek for investors
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Main Financial ReportsMain Financial Reports
• Income Statement• Balance Sheet• Sources & Uses of
Funds• Cash Flow
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TimelineTimeline
Periodo 1 Periodo 2 Periodo 3
Fech
a 1
Fech
a 2
Fech
a 3
Fech
a 4
Estado de Resultados Estado de Resultados Estado de Resultados
Flujo de Efectivo Flujo de Efectivo Flujo de Efectivo
Balance
Balance
Balance
Balance
HistóricoPronóstico
Presupuesto
Origen y Aplicación Origen y Aplicación Origen y Aplicación
c c
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Financial Projections Financial Projections ModelModel
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
CapExCapExModuleModule
Cost &Cost &ExpensesExpensesModuleModule
IncomeIncomeStatementStatementModuleModule
Cah FlowCah FlowModuleModule
BalanceBalanceSheetSheetModuleModule
AnnualAnnualSummarySummaryModuleModule
Techba_Forecast.xls
FinancingFinancingModuleModule
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Financial Projections Financial Projections ModelModel• Real Business Case• Medida, Inc.
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Revenue ModuleRevenue ModuleRevenueRevenue
Per Main Product Line• Market
– Size– Growth rate
• Penetation (Market Share)• Volume (Units sold)• Price• Revenue• Commercial discounts• Sale commisions• Revenue Sharing programs• Net Revenue
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Revenue ModuleRevenue ModuleRevenueRevenue
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Revenue ModuleRevenue ModuleRevenueRevenue
MEDIDA Validate Volume & PricesIdentify key sources of incomeDistribute income in timeIterate
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Revenue ModuleRevenue ModuleAccounts ReceivableAccounts Receivable
• Invoices• Commercial Terms
– Days of credit
• Accounts Receivable• Collection
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Revenue ModuleRevenue Module Accounts ReceivableAccounts Receivable
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Revenue ModuleRevenue Module Accounts ReceivableAccounts Receivable
MEDIDA Estimate Working Capital
Fund usesIterate
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Revenue ModuleRevenue ModuleVariable Cost & Variable Cost & Accounts Accounts PayablePayable• Materials & other consumptions• Efficiency• Unit cost• Suppliers Invoices• Commercial Terms
– Days of credit
• Accounts Payable• Payment to suppliers
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Revenue ModuleRevenue Module Variable Cost & Variable Cost & Accounts Accounts PayablePayable
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Revenue ModuleRevenue Module Variable Cost & Variable Cost & Accounts Accounts PayablePayable
MEDIDA Identify key gross marginEstimate Working Capital
Fund sourcesIterate
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Break-even AnalysisBreak-even AnalysisVariable costsVariable costs
Los costos que varían con el volumen
• Materiales• Indirectos
– Depreciación– Rentas– Electricidad– Combustibles– Comunicaciones
• Mano de obra– Directa– Supervisión
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Break-even AnalysisBreak-even AnalysisGross Gross MarginMargin
Margen = Ingreso – Costo Variable
Contribución = Precio – Costo Var. Marginal unitario
Margen =(porcentual)
Ingreso – Costo VariableIngreso – Costo Variable
IngresoIngreso
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Break-even AnalysisBreak-even AnalysisFixed costsFixed costs
Los costos que no varían con el volumen
• Costos de Producción• Costos de Ventas,
Distribución y Promoción• Costos de Administración• Costos Financieros
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Break-even AnalysisBreak-even AnalysisCost StructureCost Structure
Volumen 100 500 1,000
Costo Total 1,100 2,100 5,600
Costo Variable 500 2,500 5,000
Costo Financiero 400 400 400Costo Fijo Indirecto 20 20 20Costo Fijo Directo 180 180 180
100 500 1,000
Costo FijoCosto Financiero
Costo Variable
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Break-even PointBreak-even Point
100 500 1,000
Costo FijoCosto Financiero
Costo Variable
Punto de Equilibrio=Costo Fijo
(Precio – Costo Variable)
$6.00
600
PEP= 600 =(6 – 5)
600
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Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis
Precio 6.00 10.00 15.00
Punto de Equilibrio(Unidades)
600 120 60
100 500 1,000
Costo Fijo
Costo Variable
Punto de Equilibrio=Costo Fijo
(Precio – Costo Variable)
$15.00 $10.00
$6.00
$5.00
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Headcount ModuleHeadcount ModuleHeadcount, Salaries & Headcount, Salaries & PayrollPayroll• Headcount
– By Department & Key position• Salaries
– Base salary– Fringe benefits– Taxes– Period terms
• Payroll– To personel– To taxes
• Incentive Plans– Bonus– Stock option
• Labor expense– Productivity– Capacity
RevenueRevenueModuleModuleLink with
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Headcount ModuleHeadcount ModuleHeadcount, Salaries & Headcount, Salaries & PayrollPayroll
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Headcount ModuleHeadcount ModuleHeadcount, Salaries & Headcount, Salaries & PayrollPayroll
MEDIDA Estimate headcount
needs (capacity + productivity vs volume)
Identify impact of incentive programs
Iterate
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CapEx Module CapEx Module (Capital (Capital Expenditures)Expenditures)Equipment, Facilities, Tools Equipment, Facilities, Tools & other& other• Operational Process
– Asset employed• Equipment• Facilities• Tools
– Utilization– Capacity– Future asset requirements
• Fixed Assets– Base asset investment– Depreciation
RevenueRevenueModuleModuleLink with
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
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CapEx ModuleCapEx ModuleEquipment, Facilities, Tools Equipment, Facilities, Tools & other& other
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CapEx ModuleCapEx ModuleEquipment, Facilities, Tools Equipment, Facilities, Tools & other& other
MEDIDA Estimate Fixed assets &
tools (capacity + efficency vs volume)
Determine future investments
Iterate
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Cost & Expenses ModuleCost & Expenses ModuleFixed Costs & ExpensesFixed Costs & Expenses
• Operational Process– Facilities rent– Electricity expense– Communication expense
• Commercial Process– Facilities rent– Electricity expense– Communication expense
• Administrative Process– Facilities rent– Electricity expense– Communication expense– Services (Lawyer, GL)
• Modular growthRevenueRevenueModuleModuleLink with
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
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Cost & Expenses ModuleCost & Expenses ModuleFixed Costs & ExpensesFixed Costs & Expenses
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Cost & Expenses ModuleCost & Expenses ModuleFixed Costs & ExpensesFixed Costs & Expenses
MEDIDA Estimate cost overheadDetermine capacity
growth needs (modular growth of fixed resources)
Iterate
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Financing ModuleFinancing ModuleBank loans, Leases & other Bank loans, Leases & other financing expensesfinancing expenses
• Bank Loans– Amount– Interest rate– Principal payment & amortization
program– Other fees
• Asset lease– Amount– Payment program– Purchase options
• Other financing expenses
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Financing ModuleFinancing ModuleBank loans, Leases & other financing Bank loans, Leases & other financing expensesexpenses
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Financing ModuleFinancing ModuleBank loans, Leases & other financing Bank loans, Leases & other financing expensesexpenses
MEDIDA Estimate Fiancial cost Program payments
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Results ModuleResults ModuleIncome StatementIncome Statement
• Revenue
• Operating Cost
• Selling Expenses
• Adminstrative Expense
• Financing Expense
• Taxes• Net Income
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
Link with
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
CapExCapExModuleModule
Cost &Cost &ExpensesExpensesModuleModule
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
CapExCapExModuleModule
Cost &Cost &ExpensesExpensesModuleModule
HeadcountHeadcountModuleModule
CapExCapExModuleModule
Cost &Cost &ExpensesExpensesModuleModule
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
FinancingFinancingModuleModule
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Results ModuleResults ModuleIncome StatementIncome Statement
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Results ModuleResults ModuleIncome StatementIncome Statement
MEDIDA Estimate net profitsAdjust projection to
achieve goalsCalculate ROI & other
ratesIterate
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Cash Flow ModuleCash Flow ModuleCash FlowCash Flow
• Cash Flow from
– Operations
– Investment
– Financing & Equity
• Cash needs
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
Link with
CapExCapExModuleModule
FinancingFinancingModuleModule
IncomeIncomeStatementStatementModuleModule
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Cash Flow ModuleCash Flow ModuleCash FlowCash Flow
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Cash Flow ModuleCash Flow ModuleCash FlowCash Flow
MEDIDAEstimate Cash Flow
needsEvaluate financing
alternativesEvaluate equity fundingEstimate Company ValueAdjust operations to
achieve goalsIterate
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Balance ModuleBalance ModuleBalance SheetBalance Sheet
• Assets– Current Assets
– Fixed Assets
• Liabilities– Current Liabilities
– Long Term Liabilities• Equity
– Common Stock– Prefferred Stock
– Net Income
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
Link with
CapExCapExModuleModule
FinancingFinancingModuleModule
IncomeIncomeStatementStatementModuleModule
Cash FlowCash FlowModuleModule
FinancingFinancingModuleModule
RevenueRevenueModuleModule
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Balance ModuleBalance ModuleBalance SheetBalance Sheet
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Balance ModuleBalance ModuleBalance SheetBalance Sheet
MEDIDAReport Assets,
Liabilities & Capital
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Annual ModuleAnnual ModuleSummarySummary
• Income Statement– Dollar– Percentage
• Cash Flow Statement
• Balance Sheet
Link with
IncomeIncomeStatementStatementModuleModule
Cah FlowCah FlowModuleModule
BalanceBalanceSheetSheetModuleModule
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Annual ModuleAnnual ModuleSummarySummary
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To Do´s (next steps)To Do´s (next steps)• Actions
– Define your Business Model– Develop your Business Plan– Make your Financial Proyections
• Participants– Company
• CEO• CFO
– TechBA• Business Development Consultant
• Calendar– First activity tomorrow morning– Duration - about a month - first draft– Iterate – Continuos process
• Deliverable– Business Model– Business Plan– Financial Projections
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Final Q&AFinal Q&A
??
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How to make your How to make your own financial own financial projectionsprojections
TechBATechBA
December 2006December 2006