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Dangerously Fast How our mind jumps to conclusions2016-01-15
Kris Lohmann, Olaf Kummer
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System 1 and System 2
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System 1
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System 1
Immediate
Effortless
Simple
Confident
Associative
Gullible
Lazy
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System 2
Kingdom: AnimaliaPhylum: ChordataClass: MammaliaSubclass: TheriaInfraclass: EutheriaOrder: ArtiodactylaFamily: BovidaeSubfamily:BovinaeGenus: BosSpecies: Taurus
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System 2
Formal
Deductive
Complex
Slow
Tiring
Lazy
Kingdom: AnimaliaPhylum: ChordataClass: MammaliaSubclass: TheriaInfraclass: EutheriaOrder: ArtiodactylaFamily: BovidaeSubfamily:BovinaeGenus: BosSpecies: Taurus
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Falacies
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Exercise 1
Estimation
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Anchoring
Answer Luxembourg 550000,
France 67000000 Nobody knows.
Numbers influence even if unrelated even if aware of the influence
The mind likes to reuse.
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Exercise 2
Likelihood
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Conjunction Falacy
Estimate plausbility instead of likelihood
More details more plausible less likely
The minds likes associations, stories, plausibility.
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Exercise 3
Prognosis
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Substitution
The question:Will Facebook make profit by offering the messenger as separate solution?
Substitute questions: Do I like Facebook? Do I use messengers? ...
The mind likes simplicity.
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Exercise 4
Choice
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Endowment
Losses loom higher than gains. Unflexible Risk averse Fearful Status quo is kept
The mind dislikes losses.
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Endowment
Homo economicus: It is possible to assign a fixed value to a day of vacation. Meeting this value, the indifference point, selling and buying does not need additional incentives.
A vaction day should have the same value in Euros regardless of whether it is given or taken.
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Exercise 5
Big problems
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Availability Bias
Answer: ebola: about 30000 infections dengue fever: about 300000000
infections
WYSIATI: What you see it all there is.
Ease of retrieving an example
Emotional effect
The mind likes availability, drama.
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Exercise 6
Looking back
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Unlikely Events
Answer: There is no recordin modern times of any person being killed by a meteorite.
Small probabilities are almost impossible to get right.
The mind likes known unknowns.
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Exercise 7
Looking forward
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Unlikely Events
Nobody knows. Did you?
Keep in mind that big asteroids hitearth every few thousand years, possibly near a shore, killing thousands or millions.
The mind does not like large numbers either.
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Exercise 8
Looking at yourself
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Overconfidence
The median person drives betterthan 50% of the people.
Fallacy applies to simple tasks.
The mind likes itself.
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Exercise 9
Looking at others
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3h-T3KQNxU
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WYSIATI
What you see is all there is.
Information that has not been retrieved from memory might as well not exist.
System 1 excels at constructing the best story with the information currently activated, but does not regard information that it currently does not have.
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Miscellanea
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Other Effects
Regret
Hindsight
Base rates
Ego depletion
Halo effect
Ignoring regression to the mean
Two selves
Overestimate of validity
To name but a few.
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The Book
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Daniel Kahneman:Thinking, Fast and Slow
Penguin Books512 pages
ISBN-10: 0141033576ISBN-13: 978-0141033570
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It‘scoffee
machine time.
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