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Fairmas Hotel Report
Edition March 2016
Performance Analysis: February 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months
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Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
Occ: 71%, ADR: €98, RevPar: €69February brought a large number of events to Berlin. The Car-nival week was better than expected with good room rates. The Bautec event was held this year (it takes place every two years). It generated the expected high room rates and strong occupancy figures. The same applied for the Krebskongress (Cancer Congress). The Cisco Congress also ensured that many hotels enjoyed a good turnover. The Fruit Logistica and Berlinale film festival took place at different times this year and city centre hotels benefited from this in particular. The Fruit Logistica also generated strong room rates in the neigh-bouring districts. Many kick-off events also helped ensure a strong February performance.
Occ: -5.9%; ADR: -1.8%; RevPar: -7.6%
It does seem that the Berlin hotel industry
will be unable to repeat last year‘s strong
march. In any case, Easter and the holidays, which are
not room rate drivers, are already well booked with
price-sensitive leisure business. On Easter Saturday, a
football international match at the Olympic stadium
could lead to room rate increases. The ITB (the only
major event) generates very strong room rates. Apart
from that, two congresses, which had been very good
for last year’s numbers will be missing this time around.
Occ: -0.1%; ADR: +5.5%; RevPar: +5.4%
While the public holidays and vacations
in March will still negatively affect perfor-
mance, the scheduling of the school holiday means
more business days in April. Following the school
holidays, the month will slowly gain in momentum. The
half-marathon will lead to the first increases in room
rates. Medical conventions are continuing to generate
strong demand and will lead to healthy room rates.
Overall, general corporate demand is promising – Ber-
lin hoteliers are looking forward to April with optimism.
Occ: -4.2%; ADR:-0.1%; RevPar: -4.3%
The fundamental conditions for May are
similar to last year’s. There will only be one
full business week. The “Re:publica” was very successful
last year, even though it was short. The Diabetes
Congress is taking place over the Ascension weekend,
which is always heavily booked in Berlin. The Whitsun
(Pentecost) weekend and Corpus Christi let one expect
good leisure sector business. The German Football Cup
Final will also bring high-price business. The forecasts
are perhaps too cautious.
03 04 05
February 2016 – Berlin continues with growth
Trend
+6,3% +5,5%
+12,1%
Occ ADR RevPar
© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 8.9 % ADR: + 0.4 %
RevPar: + 9.4 %
Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 0.9 %
RevPar: - 1.5 %
Occ: + 8.7 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 14.9 %
Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: - 2.8 %
RevPar: + 1.9 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 3.4 %
RevPar: + 4.9 %
Occ: - 0.4 % ADR: + 2.3 %
RevPar: + 2.3 %
Occ: + 2.6 % ADR: - 6.5 %
RevPar: + 9.2 %
Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: + 27.4 %
RevPar: + 33.8 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 6.2 %
RevPar: + 5.6 %
Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.4 %
RevPar: + 8.9 %
Occ: + 0.8 % ADR: + 4.2 %
RevPar: + 5.1 %
Occ: + 6.3 % ADR: + 5.5 %
RevPar: + 12.1 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
February 2016 – Further growth in Dusseldorf
Occ: 65%, ADR: €98, RevPar: €64 February in Dusseldorf was generally positive, mainly due to the healthy room rate development. This year, the ME-TAV trade fair took place (it is held every two years) parallel to the EuroCIS. It provided additional revenue and was the reason for the positive ADR forecast. Increased demand in the events sector supported this development. The leap year also provided the hotel industry with an extra day of poten-tial sales.
Occ: -11.6%; ADR: +0.4%; RevPar: -11.2%
March in Dusseldorf is set for a sharp
decline (RevPar: -11%). The “Prowein” and
“Beauty” events are being held every year but the IDS
trade fair in Cologne will be absent in 2016. Last year,
this generated significant overflow business for Dussel-
dorf. In addition, this year’s school Easter holidays will
be held in March only and will so take up one more
week of the month than had been the case in 2015.
Occ: +15.9%, ADR: +44.5%, RevPar: +67.5%
On the other hand, April is expected to be
positive. Hoteliers are predicting tremend-
ous growth with RevPar up by 68 percent. It remains to
be seen as to whether this will all happen. Anyway, the
three full business weeks (this year the Easter holidays
are almost completely in March) are ensuring a high
volume of demand. The main reason is the Wire &
Tube, which takes place every two years.
Occ: -2.2%, ADR: +27.6%, RevPar: +24.8%
May will continue to be marked by strong
growth, with RevPar up by 25%. The two
days of the DRUPA trade fair will boost room rates and
are the main reason for the increase. Otherwise, the
month is practically identical to May last year.
03 04 05
2,4%
3,8%
6,3%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 8.1 % ADR: + 2.8 %
RevPar: + 11.1 %
Occ: - 12.7 % ADR: - 38.0 %
RevPar: - 45.9 %
Occ: - 4.5 % ADR: + 4.1 %
RevPar: - 0.6 %
Occ: - 2.5 % ADR: + 2.7 %
RevPar: + 0.3 %
Occ: + 3.5 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 9.3 %
Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 6.4 %
RevPar: + 2.5 %
Occ: + 0.2 % ADR: - 21.5 %
RevPar: - 21.5 %
Occ: + 8.2 % ADR: + 31.1 %
RevPar: + 41.9 %
Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 6.8 %
RevPar: + 9.9 %
Occ: + 2.7 % ADR: + 15.2 %
RevPar: + 18.3 %
Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: - 0.7 %
RevPar: - 2.0 %
Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 6.3 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
February 2016 – Losses in Frankfurt Occ: 70%, ADR: €123, RevPar: €86 There was little positive news in Frankfurt in February. For one thing, there was one day less of exhibition business from the Paperworld/Christmasworld trade show. In addition, Car-nival was held a week earlier. In 2015, the Ambiente trade fair coincided directly with the carnival season, which is otherwi-se marked by low-price business. This means that there was not much corporate or event trade in 2016.
Occ: -4.9%; ADR: +3.0%; RevPar: -2.1%
March in Frankfurt was marked by a 2% decli-
ne in RevPar. The “Light & Building” exhibition
will again be held this year; room rates are likely to be similar
to those for the 2015 ISH trade fair. However, there are only
two business weeks that can be sold for corporate and con-
ference business because this year, the Easter holidays begin
a week earlier than in 2015. Last year, in contrast, there were
three whole business weeks.
Occ: +6.9%, ADR: +11.2%, RevPar: +18.8%
Forecasts for April in Frankfurt are of very
positive developments in all three key figures.
April is a full business month, which will ensure significant
room rate increases. Hoteliers are expecting overall strong
demand in the meetings segment. In addition, MEX and the
“Musikmesse“ music trade fair will be held in April this year. In
recent years, the IMEX trade event has been held in May.
Occ: -0.4%, ADR: +3.3%, RevPar: +2.9%
May is still set on course for growth, with a
RevPar increase of 3% expected. The IFFA exhi-
bition is again being held this year (it takes place every two
years), which is the main reason for the increase in room ra-
tes. However, it remains to be seen whether the level of room
rates can be maintained over the long holiday weekends
because May features many public holidays. In addition, the
absence of IMEX will not help during the month.
03 04 05
-3,3%
1,7%
-1,7%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 3.0 % ADR: + 3.6 %
RevPar: + 6.7 %
Occ: - 5.3 % ADR: + 4.3 %
RevPar: - 1.1 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 5.8 %
RevPar: + 5.3 %
Occ: + 3.9 % ADR: + 11.1 %
RevPar: + 15.5 %
Occ: + 0.0 % ADR: + 0.1 %
RevPar: + 0.0 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.6 %
RevPar: + 6.0 %
Occ: + 4.8 % ADR: - 0.6 %
RevPar: + 4.4 %
Occ: + 13.5 % ADR: + 31.0 %
RevPar: + 48.9 %
Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 4.5 %
RevPar: + 6.9 %
Occ: - 0.1 % ADR: + 3.0 %
RevPar: + 3.1 %
Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 3.3 %
RevPar: - 0.4 %
Occ: - 3.3 % ADR: + 1.7 %
RevPar: - 1.7 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
February 2016 – Many events in HamburgOcc: 74%, ADR: €96, RevPar: €72 The hoteliers in Hamburg expected growth in February (RevPar: up 5%) and this was indeed the case. Hoteliers have registered strong demand in the MICE segment this year. The “Hanse Golf”, the “Hamburger Motorradtage” motorbike event, the “Online Marketing Rockstars Festival 2016” and some other events also generated increased demand. Hote-liers also registered additional turnover due to the leap year (February had 29 days in 2016).
Occ: -2.4%; ADR: +0.5%; RevPar: -1.9%
The trend for March in Hamburg is worse
than a year ago. The shift in the Easter
holidays to the last weekend in March (in 2015, Easter
was in early April) and a (so far) poor forecast for the
“Internorga” event mean that expectations are lower
than for 2015. RevPar is set to remain about two
percent below last year’s level. Overall, there are far
fewer days of events this March.
Occ: +1.0%, ADR: +4.8%, RevPar: +5.8%
The Hamburg hotel industry expects a far
better performance in April (RevPar: +6%).
The positive development in April is primarily because
the Easter school holidays are being held in March this
year. The “Aircraft” trade show is already the subject
of great interest and the strong demand is giving rise
to optimism. Besides this, a high preliminary booking
situation can already be seen in the MICE segment
this year.
Occ: -2.3%, ADR: +0.6%, RevPar: -1.7%
So far, May is looking negative (RevPar:
-2%). This is influenced by the many public
holidays in the month (in 2016, in addition to the
1 May, Ascension Day and Whitsun, Corpus Christi
is also in May (in 2015 it fell in June) and so only
calendar week 19 remains the sole full business week
in the whole of May. The room rate increase is mainly
influenced by the demand in the transient and tourist
segments.
03 04 05
1,1%
3,8%4,8%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 2.1 % ADR: + 4.6 %
RevPar: + 6.7 %
Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 1.9 %
RevPar: - 0.1 %
Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.0 %
RevPar: + 8.5 %
Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: - 9.5 %
RevPar: - 10.6 %
Occ: - 0.9 % ADR: + 2.1 %
RevPar: + 1.3 %
Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 3.1 %
RevPar: + 0.9 %
Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 6.0 %
RevPar: + 6.2 %
Occ: + 1.9 % ADR: + 4.0 %
RevPar: + 6.0 %
Occ: - 5.1 % ADR: + 0.4 %
RevPar: - 4.9 %
Occ: - 2.6 % ADR: + 2.5 %
RevPar: - 0.1 %
Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 3.2 %
Occ: + 1.1 % ADR: + 3.8 %
RevPar: + 4.8 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
February 2016 – Cologne/Bonn drops in RevParOcc: 68%, ADR: €102, RevPar: €69Except for the few days of the ISM Cologne, demand in Feb-ruary in Cologne/Bonn left a lot to be desired. The Carnival period did promise good room rates but there were many cancellations due to the incidents on New Year‘s Eve. Occup-ancy during the Carnival season was thus relatively weak. The weather that had been forecast (storms) did the rest. The ISM confectionery trade fair ended smoothly in time for the Carnival. This means that no half week of business trade was lost, as happened last year. The “Didacta” took place from 16 to 20 January. This event rotates between Cologne, Stuttgart and Hanover.
Occ: -12.8%; ADR: -23.5%; RevPar: -33.3%
Last year, there were two strong trade fairs
in March – the IDS and Anuga. This year
there is only the Eisenwarenmesse (ironmongery fair),
for which demand is not as strong as for the other two
events, and room rates will not be anywhere near as
high. The Easter school holidays fall almost completely
within March. This will lead to difficulties in terms of de-
mand and room rates. Because of the fact that Easter
is early this year (with worse weather being expected),
the desire to travel will probably be more subdued.
Occ: -5.4%; ADR: +6.3%; RevPar: +12.3%
April is set to bring major increases in
performance. There are no public holidays
and no vacation. Things were very different last year.
This means there is likely to be much more corporate
and conference business in April. Demand is already
encouragingly strong. The FIBO event (7 to 10 April
2016), is especially important in April. It is growing
stronger from year to year. Demand for this trade
fair is already reassuringly strong and the room rate
structure promising.
Occ: -6.5%; ADR: -13.1%; RevPar: -18.7%
There is hardly any demand for May. The
large number of public holidays means
that the business weeks are completely cut to pieces.
Besides that, there are hardly significant events during
the month. Last year, the Interzum trade fair was very
significant for the performance in May. However, it will
be missing this year, just like the FESPA event. Only the
“Final4” and the “Drupa” events at the end of the month
provide a little reason to be optimistic. Nevertheless, it
is currently difficult to make any forecasts for these.
03 04 05
-2,7%
1,4%
-1,3%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 28.8 %
RevPar: + 37.4 %
Occ: - 3.0 % ADR: + 7.5 %
RevPar: + 4.2 %
Occ: - 0.3 % ADR: + 3.7 %
RevPar: + 3.4 %
Occ: - 3.7 % ADR: - 6.8 %
RevPar: - 10.4 %
Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.8 %
RevPar: + 6.4 %
Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 4.7 %
RevPar: + 7.5 %
Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 6.7 %
RevPar: + 13.9 %
Occ: + 10.7 % ADR: + 11.3 %
RevPar: + 23.3 %
Occ: + 4.3 % ADR: + 10.2 %
RevPar: + 15.0 %
Occ: + 8.5 % ADR: + 30.3 %
RevPar: + 41.3 %
Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 4.4 %
RevPar: + 2.5 %
Occ: - 2.7 % ADR: + 1.4 %
RevPar: - 1.3 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
Hotel Performance & Trends
03|16
Report
Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG
February 2016 – Munich significantly below last yearOcc: 68%, ADR: €112, RevPar: €76February was very weak this year, without any major trade fairs or events. February 2015 was particularly affected by the ISPO trade fair, which was held place in January this year. Following the incidents in Paris, the increased fear of terrorism was also apparent in Germany. There were many cancellations, both in the corporate and the leisure sectors. The weather, which was hardly wintry, also cut the number of trips and short-stays on the way to the ski slopes. The in-creased competition on the Munich hotel market due to a number of new openings is not making life easier for hoteli-ers, either.
Occ: +1.7%; ADR: +13.0%; RevPar: +14.9%
On the other hand, March will be a strong
month. The EAU Congress and the FAF
fair trade, which takes place alternately in Cologne
and Munich every three years, will have a very positive
impact on occupancy and ADR. Besides this, there is
a football international and one Champions League
match. March 2015 had to make do without any events
at all. In addition, the Easter weekend falls in March.
Although this will not lead to high room rates, it will still
be positive for occupancy.
Occ: +13.7%; ADR: +75.8%; RevPar: +99.8%
April will bring dramatic gains. The public
holidays and the majority of the school
holidays are in March. There will consequently be more
business weeks for healthy corporate trade. However,
the “Bauma” will be the main reason for the huge
(almost 76%) increases. This event only takes place
every three years and is the world‘s largest trade fair
for construction machinery. It has a great impact on
Munich’s hotel industry.
Occ: -2.8%; ADR: +2.8%; RevPar: -0.1%
With its many public holidays, May is still
difficult to predict. However, major events
like the Analytica, the ECE Convention and two days of
IFAT at the end of the month are reasons to be hopeful.
The two weeks of Whitsun school holidays fall entirely
in May this year. The early Whitsun means that leisure-
sector trade will come very quickly and it will depend
on the weather above all. As a result, forecasts are still
very cautious.
03 04 05
-6,1% -5,8%
-11,4%
Occ ADR RevPar
Trend© Fairmas 2016
Occ: + 4.0 % ADR: + 1.7 %
RevPar: + 5.7 %
Occ: - 3.2 % ADR: - 4.1 %
RevPar: - 7.2 %
Occ: + 0.9 % ADR: + 6.9 %
RevPar: + 7.8 %
Occ: - 2.1 % ADR: - 1.1 %
RevPar: - 3.1 %
Occ: - 1.0 % ADR: - 6.8 %
RevPar: - 7.9 %
Occ: - 6.4 % ADR: - 8.6 %
RevPar: - 14.3 %
Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: + 4.0 %
RevPar: + 2.9 %
Occ: + 4.6 % ADR: + 1.8 %
RevPar: + 6.5 %
Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 7.9 %
RevPar: + 8.0 %
Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: + 4.5 %
RevPar: + 3.0 %
Occ: - 5.2 % ADR: + 1.9 %
RevPar: - 1.3 %
Occ: - 6.1 % ADR: - 5.8 %
RevPar: - 11.4 %
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16
The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland
Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.
As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.
The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]
Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management Solutions Dot WG GmbH EMayl: [email protected]
Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
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© Fairmas 2016