FBS-PT3 F O R M
Faculty of Business Studies TMA Cover Sheet
Lebanon Branch
□ Second First Semester 2010 - 2011 Academic Year
2 □ 1 TMA No. T306B Course No.
I. Student Information (to be completed by the student)
Elham Saad Student Name
418 Section No. 081716 Student No.
[email protected] E-Mail
I hereby certify that the work presented in this TMA is my own and is not copied from any source.
28 / 12/ 2010 Date of Submission Elham Saad Signature
Q3 Q2 Q1 Questions Total
20 10 70 Weight Allocated Marks
Marks ١٠٠
Total E-Library Word Count Referencing Presentation Criteria
Marks
Allocated Marks
Student's Total Mark ١٠٠
I. Tutor's Comments
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Tutor’s Name …………………………………………………………
…….. / ……. / 20 Date Returned …………………………………… Signature
Page 1
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
ARAB OPEN UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS STUDIES
Lebanon Branch
T306. Managing Complexity: a systems approach
Energy Security in Lebanon
Final Project Presented by Student Name: Elham Saad
To Supervisor: Dr. Saher Al-Annan
Fall 2010
Page 2
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Table of contents
1. Overview………………………………………………... 5 2. Background…………………………………………….. 5 3. Definition of:
3.1 Tutor Report…………………………………... 6 3.2 Client Report…………………………………... 6 3.3 LOG Project…………………………………… 7
4. Tutor Report 4.1 Aim of project………………………………….. 7 4.2 The report……………………………………… 7
4.2.1 Ethicality Statement……………………....9 4.2.2 Log Frame………………………………...10 4.2.3 Stages of SSM…………………………….12 4.2.4 Conclusion……………………………….. 29
5. Client Report…………………………………………… 33 6. Log Project………………………………………………36 7. Overall Summary of Project……………………………39 8. References………………………………………………..41
Page 4
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
1. Overview Energy is the life blood of human societies and the fuel of our economies which cooks
the food we eat, heats and lights our schools and hospitals, power our industries, and keep us
warm or cool in our homes. The access to clean energy form, and its everlasting availability
and affordability is critically important for our development and the eradication of poverty.
Thus, achieving energy security is a crucial and challenging objective that humanity must
seek. As a definition, Energy security is the ability of an economy to guarantee the availability
of the of energy resource supply in a sustainable and timely manner with the energy price
being at a level that will not adversely affect the economic performance of the economy
(APERC, 2007). This definition includes an idea about the physical availability of primary
energy resources in particular coal, oil, fuel and gas combined with the affordability of that
energy sources. In short term, an economy is vulnerable if it is dependent on a narrow range of
energy sources and is unable to switch away from the energy source whose price is increasing.
In long term, an economy remains vulnerable if it is unable to improve its flexibility to
substitute between energy sources or it is unable to increase its ability to generate and
implement new forms of energy. Thus, energy security is a messy issue facing the world as a
global community. It is a serious ongoing challenge. Strong growth in energy demand, rising
oil prices, and uncertain supply in key energy exporters has led to continued concerns about
energy security. Also there are a number of concerns and fears such as: oil and other fossil fuel
depletion. Most measures of energy security such as import dependence, and energy intensity
provide only a partial picture of the true risks facing an economy.
2. Background The united nation states that energy plays a crucial role in sustainable development. Its
availability influences all fields of social, economic and political activities; it affects the state
of the environment and the climate. Setting and implementing guidelines that regulate
emissions and promotes the use of renewable energy sources among others can significantly
contribute to sustainable development and the enhancement of livelihoods (UN, 2005). As a
result, several works have been done regarding this area. In 2002, The Lebanese Center for
Page 5
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Energy Conservation was created as a project financed by Global Environment Facility and
the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) under the management of the UNDP. Besides, on
February 2007, the Greek Embassy in Lebanon approved UNDP/LCEC proposal under ‘the
energy efficiency program towards energy efficiency reconstruction’. The project
“Renewable Energy and Energy Saving Application in the Affected Regions of Lebanon, via
the Installation of Solar collectors, lamps of low consumption, testing, and measurement
facility of solar collectors with simultaneous transfer of know-how” is a joint collaboration
between Greece and Lebanon on sustainable development issues specifically related to
renewable energy and energy efficiency. Behind this, on September 15, 2008 The World Bank
group participate in seminar on the electricity sector in Lebanon where they built a consensus
on a set of priorities and action plan to save the electricity sector. However, no implementation
has been done, nor improvement in the sector has been occurred. Moreover, Association
Libanaise pour Maîtrise de l’énergie et l’environment made numerous projects about the state
of energy in Lebanon and about energy security but also implementation did not occur.
3. Definition of:
3.1 Tutor Report Tutor report: it is a document that will include T306 course material’s concepts and
approaches. It will include the chosen issue that I experienced as a mess, and how I dealt with
it to improve it using methods, methodologies, techniques and tools from the course material.
For example, I will use SSM, and I will apply it within the BECM cycle using several
diagrams to structure the content of the mess, in addition to SUDA process. Also, it will
include the aims and interest of the complexity. Moreover, this report will include
stakeholders’ analysis, where I will analyze stakeholders who have different interests and
power in the issue. Furthermore, I will use at this part a log frame which is very useful
analytical tool to engage with the mess since it will clarify the goal, purpose, outcomes and
activities of the project.
3.2 Client Report Client report: it is a brief document that summarizes the situation and propositions. It
is a document aimed at my client that justifies and sells the options for change and
Page 6
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
recommendations coming out of my study of the messy situation. At this part I will not use
T306 course material; however, it will contain the recommendations extracted from the tutor
report.
3.3 Log Project Log project: it is an overall summary of the project which consists of fourteen
weeks. Moreover, it is a work plan which I followed during my working on the project. Thus,
it will contain the weekly work to prepare this project using course materials concepts,
approaches, tools and techniques; in addition to external sources such as the internet and other
documents from different governmental and nongovernmental agencies. Finally, the overall
summary will include reflection in and on the overall work that I have done on this project,
and the course material that I have studied and used to accomplish this work.
4. Tutor Report 4.1 Aim of Project The aim of this project is to improve the energy sector in Lebanon and achieve
energy security within the contexts of sustainable development and conservation of natural
resources. I choose this messy situation for many reasons: first, through my research about the
status of energy sector in Lebanon, I have found that energy sector in Lebanon is quite drastic.
Also, as a consumer, I am suffering from this sector due to the lack of several sources of
energy, and due to their high prices. Moreover, I believe that energy production and
consumption in an inappropriate way have a serious negative impact on the social
development, economic growth and on environment. Therefore, I choose this mess since I
value the importance of energy to maintain life, development and growth without exploiting
environment.
4.2 The Report As a system practitioner, applying the appropriate method that fits my project led me to
think a lot in all sides of the mess that I want to deal with, but at the end I realized that I have
to choose the SSM approach. SSM almost fit this project because the situation of energy
security in Lebanon can be considered unstructured situation that has social, economical,
Page 7
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
political and environmental dimensions. Moreover, since I am dealing with a messy situation
that includes numerous and different stakeholders with different perspectives, I prefer to use
this holistic approach to cover almost all aspects of the situation including soft issues. Thus, I
used SSM because of its flexibility, and the iteration between its stages and between the real
world and the concept model of the system thinking, in addition to its demonstrative tools,
such as the rich picture, will make it possible for me to describe the situation (Bell &
Chapman, 2005). Moreover, SSM is suitable here since the problem of energy in Lebanon is
unstructured, unbounded, unclear and uncertain, and SSM is an ideal method for such ill
structured situations. Further more, I choose to investigate and explore this messy situation
using SSM approach since soft thinking does not assume that the problems are out there. SSM
would enable me to identify potentially useful system of interest for thinking about such
situation, which can then used to develop agendas to enable implementation of stakeholders
developed proposals. Besides, to develop my approach, I have to follow the systemic learning
cycle stages. The first stage of the systemic learning cycle is being systemically aware of my
project. At stage two of this learning cycle, I am going to engage with the project through the
SSM. At stage three, I am going to contextualize my approach to the project through the use
of SSM. Finally, at stage four of the learning cycle, I am going to manage the complexity of
energy through the SSM.
On the other hand, I didn’t use the HSM because it is based on engineering perspectives
which does not have a universal application to all types of problems. Moreover, it emphasizes
on scientific approach problem solving rather than intuition or experience, and its core is
mathematical which limits the problem’s solutions (Bell & Chapman, 2005). Furthermore, it
concentrates on quantitative issues and technology rather than the needs of people involved in
the situation. Also, it is inflexible in use since it is a linear problem solving technique. Besides,
I didn’t use the VSM also since it is inappropriate to be used at this messy situation, it is
unable to improve it, and it assumes the availability of the five systems in the model to be
effective.
The systemic learning cycle:
1. Being
Page 8
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
As a system practitioner, I have to be fully aware of my possibilities and constraints to
deal with this mess. I have to be aware that my perspectives are always partial and can
never be objective. I have to be aware of the possibilities and constraints that surround the
messy situation also. Moreover, I have to be ethical in dealing with this mess and act in a
way that does not limit the activities of others. I have to pay particular attention to the
main informal and unexpected actors within the context and think about how certain
personalities took decisions which affected the outcome of my study. Also I have to be
aware of involving the perspectives of all stakeholders that affect or are affected by the
situation. Being aware creates the initial starting condition for engaging with the
complexity.
4.2.1 Ethicality Statement Energy security and its progress towards sustainable development will only take place if
there is an increased and improved level of awareness among all stakeholders.
Government, national and international agencies have endorsed the force of this argument
in many occasions.
This statement is drawn out to start the ethical guiding principles and procedures which
will guide the ethical behavior of my research, survey and data collection executed for the
project. So, as a system practitioner, I will behave ethically and professionally in all the
activities involved in the project. I will be aware of the ethical implication of the activities
that I will be committed to, and I will confront the highest professional standards to
conduct this project. The rights and well being of all stakeholders will be the primary
considerations in this research study. Furthermore, I will accept and deal openly and
honestly with any experience, information, and perspective given to my project from
different stakeholders. In addition to this, I will accept and respect different opinions,
believes and thoughts, and I will be a good listener in listening to different perspectives
and opinions of all stakeholders. All stakeholders have the right to know what happens to
the information they provide through their involvement in this project. I will co-operate
with all stakeholders and different agencies in order to obtain the best possible outcome.
Also, I will provide fair and impartial recommendations for the client. Finally, I declare
that all the information content that is subject to copy rights are reserved, well identified
and acknowledged.
Page 9
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Therefore, this ethicality statement sets out the ethical aspirations and values that I aspire
to my work through this project. Thus, the statement emerges from reflection on the values
that are important with respect to me to tackle the objective of my project within multi-
membership of several stakeholders’ practice (Armson, 2005).
2. Engaging
In order to engage with this messy situation, I must construct and design the system of
interest of it which it is energy with all its sources and ways that can sustain and secure
energy. Also I have to engage in double learning: learning about the domain of energy and
about the approach that I am going to use and apply which it is the SSM. Therefore, at the
being stage of the systemic learning cycle, I have to experience the project situation and
immerse myself in it with all its ambiguity.
4.2.2 Log Frame Log frame is an analytical tool used to plan, monitor and evaluate projects. It derives its
name from the logical linkages set out by planners to connect a project means with its ends
(mind tools, 1996-2010). It has a power to communicate a project’s objectives clearly and
simply on a single page. Its power comes from the ability to incorporate full range of
views of all stakeholders of a project. It is a tool for summarizing the key features of a
project design at the time of project identification. Thus, it is a powerful tool to engage
with the messy situation that I am going to improve through my project.
Energy security project log frame
Goal Assumptions
The highest level objective which my
project is expected to contribute is to
achieve energy security in Lebanon.
- Create awareness by the public about the
concept through the help of different
stakeholders and agencies, such as
government, ministry of energy and water,
the Lebanese center for energy conservation
and other local community agencies.
- Co-operation of the above agencies to
invest in programs that aim to secure energy
Page 10
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Purpose Assumptions
The transformation which is expected to be
achieved as the result of my project is the
increase of efficient energy use in
conjunction with the decrease of energy
consumption from the conventional energy
sources.
- Promote the development of efficient and
rational use of different energy sources
- Promote the usage of renewable energy at
the consumer level
Output Assumptions
The result and impact that this project
should be able to guarantee is to improve
the energy sector in Lebanon.
-Implement energy policies that aim to
promote energy efficiency and
conservation.
-Implement programs that improve energy
sector in Lebanon.
Activities Assumptions
The activities which have to be undertaken
by the project in order to produce the output
are:
- Improve supply and demand
structure.
- Develop alternative energy sources.
- Increase the efficiency of energy
usage.
- Build energy saving strategies to
attain a degree of energy security.
- provide reliable data on energy
demand patterns and distribution
- appropriate use of renewable energy
sources
- help consumers make informed
choices on energy efficiency
- encourage energy saving behavior
- long-term strategies that save and
secure energy
This log frame is an important step of engaging in this messy situation. It allows me to
immerse myself in this messy situation deeper, and understand it better through all the
dimensions that surround it. Also, it allows me to confront full range of views of all
stakeholders involved in the project.
Page 11
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
3 Contextualizing
To contextualize my approach and push it into context I have to appreciate my own
traditions of understanding and make connections with the history of particular system
method, which is here the soft system method. Through using the SSM I have to achieve
the outcomes that are agreed by those involved as worthwhile. Thus, I have also to identify
different stakeholders with their different perspectives and roles, and their different
interests to achieve more awareness and understanding to contextualize my project.
4.2.3 Stages of SSM Stage 1: Problem situation unstructured
The energy sector in Lebanon is neither reliable nor reasonably priced due to the lack of
investments and timely reforms. This sector is creating a heavy burden on public resources
and becoming an obstacle to social and economic development. Moreover, the electricity
sector became a symbol of challenges facing Lebanon in it’s derive to improve governance,
restore macroeconomic equilibrium and promote growth and employment generation. So, for
us, as consumers, energy problem is quite drastic. We are paying massive amounts of money
for energy service. This massive amount of money for energy services costs Lebanese
households an additional 25% or even more from their hard earned money which prevents
them to spend this money on food, education, health care services and on the children’s future.
An alternative way to state this messy situation from different perspective is that the energy
problem is not straightforward thought; energy problem have a direct correlation to economy
and industry. If there is not enough energy, businesses can not operate, people can not work,
which means no money is being made. Besides, a real problem also is that Lebanon has no
known fossil fuel resources, all energy needs are met with imports of petroleum products. So
energy sector is dependent on the outside, and it is vulnerable to potential energy crisis.
Stakeholders: stakeholders can be defined as all those people and institutions that have a
direct and indirect interest in the successful design, implementation and sustainability of the
project (Martin & Tate, 2001). This includes those positively and negatively affected by the
project. Stakeholders’ participation involves processes whereby all those with a stake in the
outcome of a project can actively participate in decisions on planning and managing this
Page 12
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
messy situation. They share information and knowledge, they may contribute to the project, so
as to enhance the success of the project, and hence ultimate their own interests. Analyzing
who stakeholders are, what their interests are, and what power they have is a useful tool for
providing a whole range of information about who will be affected by this mess, and who
could influence it. Also, it will provide information about which individuals, groups or
agencies are involved in formulating and implementing policy related to energy security, and
what role they will play in the process. Stakeholders’ analysis can also identify whose capacity
needs to be built in order to participate effectively.
The stakeholders involved in energy security are as follows:
Government: it has coordination, planning and implementation role. It is responsible for
implementing policies in different fields of energy sectors. They have to adopt and implement
a wide spectrum of energy efficiency measurement. They have to adopt policies and measures
in promoting energy efficiency, and they have to enhance public awareness. They have an
interest in achieving energy security to protect Lebanon from potential energy crisis. Thus,
they have high interest and high power.
Ministry of Energy and Water: it is responsible for the overall electricity sector and all
related policies. It is in charge of managing the country’s hydropower potential, as well as all
matters related to alternative energy sources. It is responsible for implementing initiatives to
reduce energy use and promote the use of renewable energy sources. It also has co-ordination,
planning and implementation role. Thus, they have high interest and high power.
EDL: it has an important role in providing an important source of energy which it is
electricity. It has an interest in investing in new resources of energy and new technologies that
help to improve the electricity sector in Lebanon. Also, it has an interest in financial return of
this sector. It has high interest and high power.
The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC): it is a national energy agency that
has an interest in all matters related to energy security and renewable energy sources. It must
invest in more projects that help to increase energy efficiency, and it must adopt programs that
can made people aware of about other energy sources that can be helpful to secure energy.
Thus, it has a high interest and high power.
Private Sector: they have an interest in the availability and the affordability of different
energy sources to maintain their activities and achieve economic growth. They play an
Page 13
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
important role in improving energy sector by investing in the production of energy efficient
goods, and should specifically encourage doing so. Thus, they have high interest and low
power.
Households: they are interested in the long run availability of different sources of energy at
reasonable price. They must play an important role in saving energy as much as possible.
Also, they must be aware of the concept of energy security. Thus, they have high interest and
low power.
Social agencies: they have an interest in the social impacts of energy security on individual’s
life. They play an important role in increasing social awareness among all individuals about
the importance of energy and about the ways that help to sustain energy for future generation.
They have high interest and high power.
Local Communities: they have an interest in the safety of their environment and well being
of individuals at their community. Moreover, they have an interest in energy security to secure
their community and protect it from any potential crisis. Also, they contribute in the
development and growth of their community. Thus, they have high interest and high power.
To develop an understanding of this messy situation and of the main stakeholders involved in
it, I drew system map which are essentially structure diagrams. A system map is essentially a
snapshot that shows components of the system and environment at point in time (Lane, 2004).
Besides, to indicate what elements in this situation has some influences over another; I
developed an influence diagram from the system map that I have drawn. This influence
diagram represents the same structural feature of the situation that I have mentioned them in
the system map, and it represents the important relationships that exist among them.
Page 14
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
In order to have the whole situation spread out in front of me, I drew the following rich
picture. This rich picture allowed me to capture all things that I am sensing about the
situation. It allowed me to encapsulate the real situation by making cartoon representation
about ‘energy sector in Lebanon and how to achieve energy security’ (Lane, 2004). Through
this rich picture I covered almost all ideas of this messy situation such as connections between
different aspects of energy security and the energy sector in Lebanon, relationships between
different factors that affect energy security such as lack of investment and timely reforms in
energy sector, influences exerted on this mess such as the increasing demand of energy, and
causes and effects that causes the imbalances between supply and demand. Thus, the whole
point of rich picture is to represent all what I can about the situation. It is about representing
all features of the situation. It is a creative thinking tool that can simplify the mess we are
dealing with.
Page 17
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
To clarify the situation and express it we have to know that Lebanon lack all major traditional
sources of energy. Accordingly, 99% of its primary energy needs are imported. In the
electricity sector alone, the main electricity company EDL, imports around $500 million worth
of fuel each year to generate the electricity needed. In addition, and despite large government
investments in the power sector, demand still exceeds supply. Besides, regarding oil supply,
Lebanon is not an oil producing country but is located in proximity to oil producing countries.
The lack of local oil resources generates a heavy reliance on oil imports and results in a heavy
drain of foreign currency from an already indebted economy.
Thousand tons Oil imports (2002)
1230.1 Oil
1688.3 Diesel
132.8 Kerosene
1590.5 Fuel‐oil
110.9 Butane gas
Table1. Oil Imports to Lebanon
Actually, fuel oil is used by two major power plants in Jiyyeh and Zouk Mikael in addition to
some small generators that serve their factories and industrial facility. However, the fuel oil is
among the most polluting petroleum by products. Besides, diesel oil used in transport,
industry, heating and mainly in thousand back-up private generators complementary to the
electricity produced by EDL which continuously experiences failures and shortages. The
quality of diesel imported to Lebanon is very low. Additionally, there is no enforcement of
regular maintenance for the vehicles using diesel. This increases the emissions and pollutions
caused by those vehicles. The case is similar for generators providing the industry and the
households with electricity. Furthermore, regarding natural gas, the Lebanese market imports
liquefied petroleum gas mainly for domestic and commercial use, through a single licensed
private importer (Abi Said, 2005). Lebanon is in the process of converting its power
generating plants from oil to natural gas.
Page 19
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Figure 3.1 EDL Corporation Source: The Higher Council of Privatization
On the other hand, renewable energy plays a minor role in the energy mix in Lebanon. Its use
has been limited to hydropower whose share has been dropping with increased electricity
production and consumption depending on rainfall and thermal plants productivity. Other
forms of renewable energy are not being used on grid scale and few applications exist in
individual houses.
Therefore, there are two sources of energy: renewable and non-renewable sorts of energy.
Non-renewable sources of energy are energy sources that are extracted from the earth as
liquid, gases and solids that can not be replenished in short period of time. Fossil fuels are non
renewable sources of hydrocarbons; primarily coal, fuel oil, and natural gas that are exploited
to generate over 85% of global energy demand (Herzog & Golomb, 2004). The global
consumption of these conventional sources has made them prone to depletion. On the other
hand, burning of fossil fuel leads to the emissions of noxious gases which are harmful to
people and environment. The shift to renewable sources of energy will ensure the production
of energy in a sustainable manner. As a result, energy security has become a serious concern
with the growing energy and electricity demand.
To propose the structure of this argument, I drew a spray diagram since spray diagrams rely on
being logical connection between the elements and relatively the core idea and the details at
Page 20
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
the periphery. I used this diagram since it tends to be useful at this face for it makes sense in a
relatively straightforward discovering and understanding of the structure of the situation.
Page 21
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Stage 3: Relevant system and root definition
Relevant system:
A well balanced energy system that comprise various power generation technologies with
suitable capacities to improve energy sector in Lebanon and achieve energy security; so that to
provide solid economic growth, maintain high level economic performance and save energy.
The root definition of this system must seek and achieve efficiency, effectiveness and efficacy
to be successful. Thus, it must exploit experts, resources and knowledge in the ideal way
(efficiency). Also, efforts and transactions in all phases of work to implement this system must
be planned and aimed at long run, and the resources must be used in the right way
(effectiveness). Finally to achieve system efficacy, evaluation of how the processes and
practices at this system are going under the real conditions must be done.
Root definition
It is a system that must be handled by all the stakeholders involved in this messy situation.
This system can be done only through the cooperation of all stakeholders. The government
and the ministry of energy and water must coordinate, plan, and implement sustainable energy
policies and strategies that consider energy conservation and energy efficiency so that to
improve energy sector. Besides, local communities and social agencies must invest in
programs that promote the development of rational and efficient use of energy. Also, they
must promote the use of renewable energy instead of non-renewable energy at consumer level.
Moreover, these agencies in cooperation with government must create awareness among
consumers about the importance of energy and how they can save energy in order to improve
supply and demand structure. Thus, they must encourage energy saving behavior. In addition
to this, consumers like households and private sector must use energy in an efficient way, and
they must try to save energy as much as possible. Thus, they must shift to use alternative
sources of energy like renewable energy sources.
CATWOE
C: Customers: energy consumers and buyers such as households and private companies, and
energy suppliers.
A: Actors: government, Ministry of Energy and Water, social agencies, local communities,
private sector, EDL, energy suppliers and buyers.
Page 23
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
T: transformation process: improve energy sector in Lebanon by implementing different
strategies, policies and programs, and by using different sources of energy in a proper and
right way.
W: the world view here is that energy with its different sources is important to life, and it
affects social, political and economic development. So, we have to use it in the most efficient
and effective way to sustain and secure it.
O: Owners: government, Ministry of Energy and Water, EDL, local communities and social
agencies.
E: environmental constraints: there are social, political, technological, and economic
constraints facing energy sector in Lebanon. There is a lack of awareness among public about
this sector and how to achieve efficiency and save energy. Besides, there is a lack of financial
resources at government level to invest in alternative resources and to implement policies,
strategies and programs to improve energy sector and secure energy in the long run. Moreover,
there is a lack of renewable energy technologies.
Stage 4: Conceptual model
Conceptual model is an activity model; it is a model of the activities or processes which
logically must go on if a system is to be one described in the root definition. Thus, a well
balanced energy system that improve energy sector in Lebanon and create energy security can
be achieved by improving supply and demand structure and developing alternative energy
sources which are renewable energy sources such as tides and waves, solar thermal energy,
wind energy, hydropower, and biomass. Also, it can be achieved through increasing the
efficiency of energy use, building energy saving strategies to attain a degree of sustainability,
encourage energy saving behavior, and adopt renewable energy technologies.
Therefore, in an attempt to trace the logical consequences of picking the relevant system, the
following conceptual model was prepared representing an expansion of root definition.
Page 24
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
4. Managing
After contextualizing my approach, I can reach to the final stage of the systemic learning cycle
which is managing the complexity and its content to realize what has to be done to improve
this messy situation.
Stage 5: Comparison of the conceptual model with the rich picture
At this stage, I am going to compare the conceptual system thinking world with the real world.
Activity in
conceptual model
Present in real
world situation?
Comments Is it feasible and
desirable to include
on agenda and carry
it forward?
Improve supply and
demand structure
Part of the activity is
already done in the
real world, but with
no coordination
On the supply side,
there are an ongoing
activities include the
retrofitting of
existing power plant,
investment in power
generation plants and
the enhancement of
the distribution
network and
equipment.
On the demand side,
the ministry of
energy and water has
initiated energy
saving projects to
reduce electricity
Yes, it is an
important activity
that can improve
energy sector in
Lebanon
Page 26
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
expenses in public
building.
Develop alternative
energy sources which
are renewable energy
sources such as tides
and waves, solar
thermal energy, wind
energy, hydropower,
and biomass.
Several renewable
energy options exist
for Lebanon;
however, there is a
lack of vision and
political will by the
government to
develop these
renewable sources of
energy.
Renewable energy is
scarcely mentioned in
existing Lebanese
energy laws, and
there is no
established
administrative
structure in place to
develop energy
sector.
Yes, it is a crucial
and very substantial
step to achieve
energy security.
Increase the
efficiency of energy
usage
Few activities have
been initiated in the
real world to address
energy efficiency
challenge
Energy efficiency can
be promoted through
capacity building,
information and
awareness among all
stakeholders.
Yes, it is feasible and
desirable.
Build energy saving
strategies to attain a
degree of
sustainability
No, this activity is
not present in the real
world. There is a lack
of such strategies.
Government and
other stakeholders
must cooperate to
build such strategies.
Yes, it is important to
attain sustainability at
energy sector.
Encourage energy
saving behavior
Some activities at this
level are done.
Social agencies and
local community
agencies are playing
this role. However,
government must
coordinate with these
agencies to provide
incentives for those
individuals that are
Yes, it is an easy
activity, and can
contribute to the
overall objective of
energy security
Page 27
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
saving energy.
Adopt renewable
energy technologies
This activity is not
present in the real
world.
The main barrier to
the adoption of
renewable energy
technologies is the
lack of investment,
the lack of financial
resources, and the
lack of expertise
No, since it faces
many barriers. Major
obstacle is that there
is a lack of financial
resources to buy
these technologies.
Stage 6: Debating with Stakeholders Involved in the Situation
The purpose of this stage is to conduct a structured discussion with the actors about the ideas
that are starting to emerge from the analysis. First, I put to the stakeholders some ideas about
the possible changes in the problem situation and I tried to identify those ideas which are
agreed to be both systemically desirable and feasible. I constructed a dialogue with all
stakeholders to make an agreement about the solutions that are feasible and desirable, and that
can be implemented to improve this messy situation. This dialogue included all stakeholders
and it was open so that all stakeholders had had a chance to voice their opinion. Moreover, I
provided all stakeholders with the information needed to make decision and implement
outcomes. I focused on increasing understanding and relations among stakeholders through the
use of effective communication that enables all participants to move forward with
implementation plans. Therefore, as a result of this dialogue among stakeholders, we reached
to the following agreed changes to be implemented:
• Improve supply and demand structure through working on both sides equally.
• Develop renewable energy sources as an alternative to the conventional sources of
energy
• Increase energy efficiency by promoting capacity building, information and
awareness among all stakeholders.
Page 28
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
• Build energy saving strategies to attain a degree of sustainability through the
cooperation of different stakeholders
• Encourage energy saving behavior by providing incentives for individuals who save
energy.
• Encourage education in the field of renewable energy on all levels.
• Establish a credit system for renewable energy which provides low interest loans for
those interested in renewable energy installations.
Actually, these agreed changes are very important and essential in improving energy
sector in Lebanon and achieving energy security. However, these changes need a lot of
money to invest in their implementation; also, they may take a long period of time to be
implemented.
Stage 7: Implementation
At this stage we are going to implement the agreed changes that I mentioned in the
previous stage. Although the implementation takes a long period of time and needs a lot
of money, the implementation of the agreed changes will improve the messy situation
that we are facing. When we accomplish these changes, we will achieve efficiency,
effectiveness and efficacy at energy sector, and we will achieve energy security and
sustainability.
4.2.4 Conclusion In conclusion, I would like to reiterate the main point of this messy situation. Lebanon
is on brink of major catastrophic status of its energy sector. Lebanon energy sector has
proven to be a total failure and no real measures have ever been taken. Lebanon needs to
build a comprehensive energy efficiency and renewable energy policy. Also, capacity
building and awareness is needed. Thus, achieving energy security is crucial and
challenging objective that different stakeholders must seek. Therefore, major changes in
energy sector should take place, and the whole energy system should be rethought, re-
planned, and re-implement with energy security in mind. This process is not easy or
short, but let us remembers that the journey of 1000 miles starts with a step. Besides, I
reached to these results by using approaches and methods from T306 course material
Page 29
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
which made the mess more clear and understandable. I analyse this mess fully using a
structured approach which it is SSM in the context of BECM systemic learning cycle.
Being and engaging stages of the systemic learning cycle were dominated by inquiry
analysis concepts and ideas. At these stages I observed how system thinking could help in
changing my perceptions about such a messy situation, and consequently understanding it
better from different angles and in broader context. Besides, at contextualizing and
managing stages of the systemic learning cycle, I moved from system thinking to system
practices by deciding and implementing actions; thus I moved from theory to practice.
Finally, through working in this messy situation I learned o develop energy strategy that
is about the process of making changes and about the changes themselves.
To represent the factors affecting this project I am going to draw multiple cause diagram.
This type of diagram helps me to understand the causes and the effects of this messy
situation. Moreover to gain further understanding of the connectivity in a situation, I
converted the multiple cause diagram into a sign graph by indicating if the cause has
negative effect or positive effect by adding respective signs.
Page 30
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
To: Government
Ministry of Energy and Water
Beirut, Lebanon
December 2010
I am glad to share with you the outcomes of the analysis that I carried out on “Energy
Security in Lebanon”.
Before moving straightforward to the analysis results and recommendations, I would
like to confirm that other projects and attempts carried and being carried out by various
parties are indeed of huge benefits. However, many gaps remain exist, and those were the
focus of my analysis.
The state of energy sector in Lebanon is deplorably bad and wretched. Power cuts are a
daily hassle for everyone in Lebanon. Despite a new and much needed energy plans and
the finalization of electricity, gas and oil laws, Lebanon still does not have a satisfactory
framework to solve this staggering problem. Moreover, the challenges to sector reforms
are extensive. Lebanon still lacks a truly comprehensive vision for its energy sector.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency laws looking toward the future and outlining the
appropriate support schemes are also lacking. Even the few legislative measures adopted
over the past decade aiming to reform the electricity sector are encountering serious
delays in implementation. The industry is still awaiting the announced creation of an
electricity regulator and market restructuring to separate electricity production,
transportation, and distribution. The planned reforms of Electricitie du liban (EDL) has
been postponed indefinitely.
Besides, private sector confidence in Lebanon’s energy sector is weak. The lack of
legislative and regulatory certainty remains an impediment to major investment projects.
Access to energy or the lack of thereof, has become a major obstacle to doing business
for 61 percent of Lebanese companies, according to the latest World Bank’s study. More
importantly, Lebanon has not been targeted by the initiatives aiming to develop
renewable energy capacities in particular solar and wind across the Mediterranean region.
This could have strategic implications for the country’s participation in regional energy
integration over the long term.
Page 33
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
The need for additional investment in Lebanon’s failing energy sector is significant. To
effectively attract such necessary volumes of investment, the government needs to make
restoring investor confidence an immediate priority. It needs first to define a
comprehensive energy strategy for Lebanon supplied by a national consensus; second, to
design a clear set of rules and regulations governing energy sector, and third, to set laws
for the development of renewable energy potential and energy efficiency measures. The
government failure to proceed with energy sector reform will result in more money being
poured into the unregulated sector. It will also divert foreign investment away from
Lebanon toward other countries in the region that are more forward looking in their
energy and economic planning.
After discussing the main causes and effects of this messy situation, I suggest for you the
following solutions to overcome the stated failures, improve energy sector in Lebanon,
and achieve energy security. Straightforward, the solutions and recommendations that
you should accomplish are as follows:
• Develop a national energy strategy, which includes ambitious renewable energy
targets. The energy strategy should take into consideration long term energy
security.
• Develop a sustainable transport strategy which encourages non-motorized modes
and public transport as well as alternative renewable fuels.
• Establish “the energy organizational committee” as identified in law 462.
• Increase and facilitate cooperation and communication between the different
public authorities and industries related to energy.
• Establish and regularly update a national energy database including information
on renewable energy and energy efficiency potential.
• Increase national, regional, and international networking and information
exchange on energy issues to enhance local expertise and knowledge.
• Establish a credit system for renewable energy which provides low interest loans
for those interested in renewable energy installations.
• Encourage energy efficiency technologies as a first step in reducing electricity bill
altogether.
Page 34
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
• Remove taxes and customs charges on all renewable energy items such as solar
thermal collectors, PV panels, wind turbines etc….
• Provide financial incentives for renewable energy users on houses in the form of
added construction space permits, this approved to be very effective.
• Remove government subsidies on electricity and fuel in all its forms which would
encourage the population to adopt energy saving strategies.
There are many changes needed to be done in order to improve energy sector in
Lebanon and achieve energy security. This is not an easy process, however, the whole
energy sector must be restructured in order to achieve sustainable energy.
Best regards, Elham Saad.
6. LOG Project
Page 35
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
Project Name: Energy Security in Lebanon
Starting Date: 27 September
Target End Date: 30 December
Week Date Task Action List
Week 1
27 September-3 October
Before starting our lectures for this semester, I reviewed
the project log frame that I already made in TMA02 of
T306 (A) to refresh my memory about the ideas that I
initiated to prepare myself for the potential T306 final
project that I am going to make.
Week 2
4 October-10 October
At week 2, my tutor assures that last TMA for T306 will
involve working on a project but the assignment was not
uploaded yet on the LMS. However, he recommended
that we have to read our project guide. At this stage I read
the project guide, and I started in developing my ideas
about how I can organize my project.
Week 3
11 October-17 October
At this week a new concept was introduced to us that it is
sustainable development and how we can engage with it.
At this stage, I started to think about the project as a
topic, and I thought of what details I might include. Thus,
I found that sustainable development is very useful
concept and it may help me to improve the mess that I
choose in TMA 02. Thus, I decided to engage with this
mess in the context of sustainable development. However
all of this was just an intrinsic brainstorming.
Week 4
18 October- 24 October
At week 4, we studied about beliefs, values and
circumstances, and while I was studying them I found
them very useful to discover the aim of choosing this
mess and not other mess. Thus, I started to develop my
Page 36
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
ideas and I tried to discover my hidden values and beliefs
about this mess that I am going to tackle. At this week I
started writing the first draft.
Week 5
25 October-31 October
I started to collect more information from different
resources in order to understand this mess better, and see
different perspectives and views about this messy
situation.
Week 6
1 November-7 November
TMA03 was uploaded on LMS, and I started to work on
it. Its final part which weight 20 % of the grade was about
drafting an outline for the project. At this part, I started to
organize my ideas as what details I might include, which
method I want to adopt during my analysis, what tools
and information are available to me, and how I can
manage this information and project. Then, I developed
an outline proposal for the project.
Week 7
8 November-14
November
At this week, I accomplished my TMA03 and I submitted
it. I found that outlining the proposal for the project was
very beneficiary step, since preparing the outline proposal
is a prerequisite step to preparing the project. This has
relieved me from being confused about the topic, and has
put my foot on the first step toward working actively on
my project.
Week 8
15 November- 21
November
At this week, I started to discuss the problematic situation
with the stakeholders that have an interest in this mess in
order to know their views, perspectives and opinions. At
this stage, I started to explore my experience and others’
experiences, and I started to investigate how similar
complex issues were handled by others. Moreover, I
planned to visit different agencies to collect more
information, and of course I continued my research using
the internet and the e-library which are huge virtual
Page 37
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
libraries.
Week 9
22 November-28
November
At this week, we studied about the reflective systems
practitioners, and this made me become aware of how to
reflect on my practice while I am doing my project. Also,
I learned about reflection before action which was very
helpful for me to do in my T306 final project.
Week 10
29 November- 5
December
TMA 04 “final project” was uploaded on the LMS. In this
week, the tutor explained what is needed and he guided us
about what to do and what we have to avoid. Also, at this
week, I read the instructions given very well and I started
to organize my ideas, approaches and the draft that I
started in it in the way required in the instructions.
Moreover, I spent a lot of time preparing a project
planning document and outlining how the project will be
organized and planned. I also started gathering the virgin
data from the internet and from T306 course material, and
I started to read them thoroughly.
Week 11
6 December- 12
December
At this week, I started filtering the data collected from the
internet. I highlighted relevant and important information
that can support my analysis, and I prepared a summary
of all important information. I prepared a draft, with
heading and sub-heading, as well as references from all
relevant information. Then, I reviewed the drafts that I
prepared and I waited for my tutor’s feedback on the
outline proposal of the project.
Week 12
13 December- 19
December
I received the feedback from my tutor on the outline
proposal, and it was positive. This gave me a big push to
further explore the topic of the project. I formulated the
context of the system of interest and I prepared related
diagrams. I also started to identify different stakeholders
and their key roles and interest in the mess. I prepared a
Page 38
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
brief summary of the situation being investigated. I
started building an idea on the approach that I intended to
adopt for the project, and I compared the three methods in
order to clarify why I am going to use the SSM and not
the other two methods.
Week 13
20 December- 26
December
I spent all this week finalizing my project. I implement
the SSM, I completed the tutor report and the client report
and I am working to finish this log project. Also, I
scanned all the diagrams that were hand drawn. At the
end of this week, I finished the project.
Week 14
27 December- 2 January
I read the project carefully before submitting it, and I
changed some sentences that I found ill-structured. After
that, I re-read it another time, and then I submitted it and I
ma satisfied and proud of it since I put a lot of effort to
accomplish it.
7. Overall Summary of Project The challenge of energy security is without question one of the most significant
struggles faced by the energy sector in Lebanon. Through working on this mess, and
analyzing it, I learned new insight about working systemically which it is to learn and
reflect by reading information and actively engage with it. This improved my ability
to reflect and think about how I think. Thus, during the preparation of my project, as a
system practitioner, I was going through what I called reflective practice. Reflective
practice is a group of activities that allowed me to move towards achieving the goals
of becoming more aware and of improving my practice (Armson, 2005). Reflective
practice was adopted when I was working with awareness of questioning the issues in
projects that I am preparing, and questioning my practice itself. Through the whole
process of preparing the project, I was learning many new concepts, and I was doing
self-evaluation, checking and enhancing my self knowledge. These elements of
critical reflection are also those which gave me access to epistemological awareness.
Page 39
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
To clarify more, before I started working on this mess, I started planning for it by
collecting information about it, thinking about how to organize my work and the
method that I am going to use, designing my work process and setting a time scale
schedule to be able to meet the deadline without delay. I was doing intrinsic
brainstorming. By doing this, I was going through the phase of reflection before
action. This phase helped me to reduce errors and organize my work more and focus
on my goals. Afterwards, I started doing the actual work on the project, and I started
analyzing the mess using SSM. As I was working on my project, I was reflecting in
my practice by asking several questions all the time about what I am doing. This
reflection in action helps me as I complete a task. It is the process that allowed me to
reshape what I am working on, while I am working on it. It is that on going
experimentation that helped me find viable solutions (Schon, 1987). After I
accomplished my work, I reviewed all the work done and reflected on it, evaluated it,
and decided whether my work and practice have helped me to improve the situation
or not. Doing all this was basically reflecting on my own actions. Actually, after
working on this project I feel that I am more connected to the issue of energy security
in Lebanon and I feel even more responsible. I feel like I own this problematic
situation. Moreover, through working on this project my ability to manage messy
situations has increased. I feel more confident in handling problems through the
experience that I gained as a system practitioner. After all, I would like to note that it
was really different to get involved systemically in the situation than to have an outer
and general look at it. Finally, after accomplishing all these results from my project, I
wish that the stakeholders involved in this mess can implement the changes that I
recommended in order to improve the energy sector in Lebanon and achieve energy
security.
8. References
Page 40
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
• Abi Said, C. (2005), Electric Energy and Energy Policy in
Lebanon, Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development
(GNESD), Beirut.
• Armson, R. (2005), T306 Managing Complexity: A Systems
Approach, block 5, The Systemic Practitioner: Being Reflective,
Becoming Aware, The Open University.
• Bell, S., Chapman, J. (2005), T306 Managing Complexity: A
System Approach, block 2, Managing and Learning with
Information Systems, The Open University.
• Herzog, H. and Golomb, D. (2004), Carbon Capture and Storage
from Fossil Fuel use, Encyclopedia of Energy, (ed.) In Elsevier
Science, by Cleveland, C.J., vol.1, article number: 00422, pp. 1-
11.
• Lane, A. (2004), T552, System Thinking and Practice:
Diagramming, The Open University.
• Martin, P. and Tate, K. (2001), Getting Started in Project
Management, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
• Schon, D.A. (1987), Teaching Artistry through Reflection-in-
action, In Educating the Reflective Practitioner, CA: Jossey-Bass
publishers, San Francisco.
• UN. (2005), Promotion of New and Renewable Sources of Energy
including the Culmination of the World Solar Program 1996-2005,
UN, General Assembly, New York.
• Asia Pacific Energy Resource Centre: APERC (2007),
http://www.aperc.org/ (Accessed 5 November 2010).
Page 41
T306B_Final Project_Fall_2010_081716_Elham_Saad_S418
• Electricite Du Liban (2004), http://edl.gov.lb/ (Accessed 5
November 2010).
• Mind Tools (1996-2010), http://www.mindtools.com/ (Accessed
13 December 2010).
• United Nation Development Programme: UNDP (2010),
http://undp.org.lb/ (Accessed 5 November 2010).
• The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation: LCEC (2002),
http://lcecp.org.lb/ (Accessed 12 December 2010).
• The Ministry of Finance (2001-2004), http://www.finance.gov.lb/
(Accessed 5 November 2010).
• The Ministry of Energy and Water: MEW (2004),
http://www.energyandwater.gov.lb/ (Accessed 12 December
2010).
Page 42