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Banking Barometer Europe
March 2012
Survey results: Belgium
Page 2 Ernst & Young Bankenbarometer
About the study
► Telephone survey conducted by an independent market research institute
(Valid Research, Bielefeld) in January 2012
► Survey of 500 banks across Europe, including 50 from Belgium
► "Ernst & Young Bank Barometer" will be published every six months
Page 3 Ernst & Young Bankenbarometer
About the study
Type of bank
Major banks 25%
Private bank/regional bank 31%
Foreign bank 14%
Public credit institution 6%
Cooperative bank 8%
Federal state bank, development bank 0%
Specialist bank 16%
Make-up of the survey sample
Total assets
EUR 40 billion + 2%
EUR 21 – 40 billion 10%
EUR 11 - 20 billion 14%
EUR 2 - 10 billion 23%
Less than EUR 2 billion 51%
Respondents
CFO 60%
Management board member 8%
COO 6%
CRO 2%
Head Office / Strategy 8%
Other department heads 16%
Business Outlook
Page 5 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks more confident than other European banks are.
„ How do you rate the current general performance of your bank?‖
Belgium
Europe
1 5
56
38
0 6
48
46 Very good
Fairly good
Fairly poor
Very poor
%age respondents answering
Page 6 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Dutch and Polish banks are the most content
„ How do you rate the current general performance of your bank?―
%age respondents answering
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
5
6
6
8
8
10
48
40
60
70
74
56
48
48
42
67
58
52
58
36
26
24
38
46
46
48
23
30
Poland
Netherlands
UK
France
Italy
Europe
Nordics
Belgium
Spain
Germany
Austria
very poor fairly poor fairly good very good
Page 7 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian bankers are less optimistic about the future
„ How do you expect your bank’s position to change in the next six months?"
2
2
4
6
6
8
10
10
10
10
16
26
48
64
76
76
68
67
70
74
53
69
68
50
32
18
18
24
23
20
16
35
15
6
Poland
Netherlands
Italy
Nordics
UK
Europe
Belgium
France
Spain
Germany
Austria
weaken slightly weaken significantly strengthen slightly strengthen significantly %age respondents answering
Page 8 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks are particularly optimistic about Deposits.
Good Fairly good Fairly poor Poor
„How do you rate the outlook for your bank in the following segments?"
Transaction banking
Retail Banking
Corporate & Investment
Securities Trading
Private Wealth Management
Deposits
39
41
41
35
33
27
44
47
49
50
51
43
13
9
9
13
13
22
4
3
1
2
3
8
Europe
31
51
42
30
27
25
46
41
47
52
57
47
17
8
11
18
14
22
6
3
6
Belgium
%age respondents answering
Page 9 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks expect very strong deposit growth, but declining corporate loans
„How do you expect demand for the following products to change over the next six months?―
Credit cards
Deposits
Corporate loans
Private loans
Private mortgages
Europe
Rise Fall
-16
-18
-25
-26
-20
37
52
23
34
28
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
-23
-17
-22
-15
-22
36
43
41
38
33
Credit cards
Deposits
Corporate loans
Private loans
Private mortgages
Page 10 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Basel III is the biggest priority for Belgian banks
„ How high do you expect the focus of your bank to be on the following activities during the
next six months (1 very important, 10 not very important)?―
13
13
21
22
18
35
18
25
27
41
49
49
58
57
8
8
12
16
22
22
22
24
26
31
35
41
45
60
Off shoring
Reducing number of products
New remuneration system
Establishing new business segments
Disposing assets
Developing/introducing new products
New foreign markets
Restructuring business operations
IFRS
Streamlining processes
Minimizing non-essential expenditure
Cutting Costs
Risk management
Preparing for Basel III
Belgium
Europe
Percentages with score 1 to 3
Page 11 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Employment
Page 12 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks expect slight headcount growth
„In the next six months do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?―
0
18
58
24
0
Strong increase
slight increase
Unchanged
slight decrease
Strong decrease
2
15
58
22
3
Europe
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 13 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
France and UK face the strongest headcount growth
„In the next six months do you expect the headcount of your bank to change?―
12
14
20
23
24
25
26
27
31
36
38
65
54
72
61
58
63
58
55
50
52
56
23
32
8
16
18
13
16
18
19
12
6
Germany
Spain
Italy
Poland
Switzerland
Austria
Nordics
Netherlands
United Kingdom
France
increase unchanged shrink
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 14 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
-27
-22
-16
-26
-22
-17
-11
-27
-15
-24
13
27
26
36
31
38
37
18
24
28
Belgian banks likely to see strong gain in Sales and Retail employees.
„In which departments is headcount changing?―
Europe
Rising Shrinking %age repsondents answering
Technology
Product / Business line
Retail
Sales
IT
Marketing
Operations
Finance / tax
-25
-25
-15
-29
-18
-20
-16
-16
-17
-14
6
8
13
14
20
20
22
24
32
40
Belgium
HR
Other
Page 15 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Economic Environment & Financial Markets
Page 16 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
2
26
37
33
2
Financial markets: Belgian banks’ outlook in line with the rest of Europe
„How do you expect the performance of the financial markets to change over the next six
months?―
Europe
0
26
43
31
0
Improve significantly
Improve slightly
Unchanged
Worsen slightly
Worsen significantly
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 17 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
49
24
44
27
19
24
16
33
18
22
16
28
30
31
31
36
41
43
44
54
Worsen Strengthen
Financial markets: Belgian bank expectations are marginally positive.
Net balance
statistic“
32
26
10
17
16
12
4
-14
4
-33
France
Spain
Nordics
Italy
UK
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Germany
Poland
„How do you expect the performance of the financial markets to change over the next six months?―
Percentage respondents answering
Page 18 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
-8
-9
-8
-12
-10
-7
-10
-11
-10
-10
-10
-8
-9
-9
35
32
28
31
29
29
22
26
38
37
26
37
38
46
Belgian banks face sharper insolvency risk.
„Looking across sectors, how do you rate the risk of default―
Retail
Chemicals and Pharma
Shipping
SME
Technology Media Telecom
Mechanical engineering
Utilities
Infrastructure
Corporate real estate
Transport
Services
Automotive
Commodities
Construction
Europe
strengthen weaken
-7
-8
-8
-9
-2
-4
-11
-2
-4
-9
-5
0
-11
-4
31
33
35
36
36
37
39
40
41
43
49
50
50
51
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 19 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
-35
-39
-24
-30
-32
-34
-27
-27
-27
-32
-26
-34
-41
-39
10
13
8
11
8
12
10
13
12
11
11
10
12
13
Lending policies are likely to become more restrictive
„ How do you expect the corporate lending policies of banks in your country to change in the
next six months across each of the following sectors?―
Construction
Corporate Real Estate
Services
Retail
Commodities
Infrastructure
Technology, Media, Telecom
Automotive
Transport
Chemicals & Pharma
SME
Shipping
Mechanical engineering
Utilities
Europe
Less restrictive More restrictive
-22
-23
-24
-24
-27
-29
-30
-33
-33
-34
-37
-37
-39
-40
9
12
9
17
4
18
9
11
9
9
17
7
9
12
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 20 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian bank have a pessimistic view of the economy.
„ What's your outlook for the business environment over the next six months?
30
43
27
Europe
40
36
24
Belgium
improve
worsen
unchanged
Percentage respondents answering
Page 21 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks somewhat pessimistic about the economy
„ What's your outlook for the business environment over the next six months?‖
Percentage respondents answering
16
23
29
30
30
32
32
33
37
42
52
60
65
48
24
33
36
34
39
39
32
24
25
12
23
46
37
32
34
26
24
26
24
UK
Poland
Netherlands
Spain
Germany
Italy
France
Europe
Belgium
Nordics
Austria
negative neutral positive
Page 22 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
European debt crisis
Page 23 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
38
42
Sovereign debt defaults will have negative impact on the banking sector
„ Do you think that any defaults by sovereign debtors will have a negative impact on the banking
sector as a whole?―
Europe
20
Yes, substantial
No
Yes, minor
28
42
30
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 24 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
28
29
30
32
33
42
44
55
56
64
54
42
42
38
41
48
34
31
24
28
18
29
28
30
26
10
22
14
20
8
France
Nordics
Netherlands
UK
Poland
Italy
Germany
Spain
Austria
yes, substantial Yes, minor No
Belgium
Belgian banks have marginal concern about the sovereign debt crisis. „ Do you think that any defaults by sovereign debtors will have a negative impact on the
banking sector as a whole?―
Net balance
statistic“
56
36
41
22
32
7
2
2
0
10
In percentages
Page 25 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Multiple sovereign defaults would have fatal effects on lending ability Belgian banks
„ What affect would multiple sovereign defaults have on your business model / service
provisions?―
In percentages; multiple answers possible
64
13
19
9
4
4
61
20
27
17
7
8
Reduce ability to lend
Seek state funding
Apply to central banks to maintain liquidity
Force the closure of certain areas of business
Temporarily suspend deposit withdrawals
Force you to sell parts of your business
Belgium
Europe
Page 26 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Regulation and Consolidation
Page 27 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
25
4
12
18
20
21
24
30
35
42
44
43
56
44
41
35
54
47
36
44
39
38
32
40
44
41
45
25
29
34
21
19
18
Europe
UK
France
Italy
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Nordics
Poland
Austria
Major rationing Some pricing impact and change in market focus Little impact
Belgium
Regulation will lead to reduced lending
Will capital and liquidity constraints as a result of stress tests or new regulation result in a
reduction in credit provision to the real economy?
Percentage respondents answering
Page 28 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Belgian banks expect Basel III will cost clients more, but should stabilise the system
„How will the implementation of Basel III affect…?―
Bank Profitability
Attractiveness of local market
Credit costs (for clients)
Lending volumes, provision of credit
Risk appetite of banks
Stability of the financial system
Europe
67
52
24
25
18
19
27
37
62
30
30
37
6
11
14
45
52
44
Strengthen No impact Weaken
68
60
21
37
22
34
28
31
62
14
32
22
4
9
17
49
46
44
Belgium
Percentage respondents answering
Page 29 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
Banking consolidation in Belgium is more likely medium – long term.
„Do you expect there to be significant consolidation in your local market? ―
37
50
13
Belgium
Yes, in the short term (within the next 12
months)
Yes, in the medium to long term
No
39
43
18
Europe
Percentage respondents answering
Page 30 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
4
6
10
12
14
14
14
21
31
74
62
37
42
43
37
39
72
46
51
26
34
57
48
45
49
47
14
33
18
Germany
Italy
Poland
UK
France
Netherlands
Austria
Nordics
Spain
Yes, in the short term (within the next 12 months) Yes, in the medium to long term No
Belgium
Short term consolidation in Belgium not likely
„Do you expect there to be significant consolidation in your local market? ―
Percentage respondents answering
Page 31 Ernst & Young Banking Barometer
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Direct: +32 2 774 95 01 |
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Direct: +32 2 774 92 66 |
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Direct: +32 2 774 90 07 | Mobile: +32 475 98 33 10
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