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Extracting Space Weather
Information from Research Models:
Opportunities and Challenges
Space Weather Laboratory
http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Michael Hesse
and the CCMC Team
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“A US multi-agency partnership to enable,
support, and perform the research and
development for next generation space
science and space weather models”
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CCMC
Facilitate
Community Research
Address National
Space Weather Needs
NASA, DoD and NOAA
CCMC goals
..through partnering with the international modeling community
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SWx use of research models: opportunities
• Provide information which is state-of-the art
• Provide information which is otherwise unavailable
• Despite some issues, RT services can be set up
• Provides visibility to modeling community
• Is inclusive – many models/modelers can be featured
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SWx use of research models: challenges
• Models are usually not black-boxed – often not easy to install and use
• Model results may not always be available – not “operational”
• RT services and model maintenance requires numerical expertise
• Scientific expertise is needed to interpret model results
• Flexibility required to adapt to changing information landscape
But: If a non-operational web cam shows an incoming tidal wave,
would anyone ignore that information?
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Fok RC
Fok RB
LFM
GUMICS
SWMF / GM+IM+IE
OpenGGCM
CTIP
Weimer
AbbyNormal
USU-GAIM
Corona Heliosphere
ENLIL
Heliospheric
Tomography
WSA
SWMF-IH SWMF-SC
Magnetosphere-Ionosphere
MAS
PFSS
Models hosted by CCMC C
oro
na
l M
ag
net
ogra
ms Solar/SW
Monitors
Unique breadth
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Flare monitoring product (U. Bradford, UK)
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Solar wind forecasts
Models:
WSA/ENLIL (CISM),
SWMF (CSEM)
RT ops ongoing (available on
iSWA), addition of WSA
imminent
P. MacNeice, S. Taktakishvili
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SOHO LASCO C3 RD Images
• Time of CME Arrival
• Measure of Uncertainty
• Magnitude of Impact
Enlil Cone Model
CME Arrival Prediction
WSA/ENLIL cone model: CME prediction
S. Taktakishvili, P. MacNeice
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Cone model CME forecasting
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Cone model forecasting: the next step
• Current Operational system
– Manual generation of cone model parameters from LASCO difference
images
• Automated system (paper published)*
– Fit error estimates define ‘ensemble forecast’ parameter set
Original image
(Dec 13, 2006)
Filtered image
(large-scale
features)
Binary image
(bright
features)
“CME mass” Sequence of
binary images
min{v,x0 , , }
(yi ˆ y i)2 (zi ˆ z i)
2 0i
A. Pulkkinen, S. Taktakishvili, D. Berrios
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1-10keV plasma density:
S/C charging
Updated every 4mins
~45min forecast
Magnetopause position:
S/C orientation
Updated every 4mins
~45min forecast
Model: SWMF T. Gombosi et al. (CSEM)
L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
Presently available tools
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Presently available tools
Kp forecasts
Updated ~4mins
~45min forecast
1keV-10MeV electron fluxes:
S/C charging, SEU, radiation hazards
Updated every 4mins
~45min forecast
Model: RC/RB M-C Fok (GSFC)
L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova Y. Zheng, L. Rastaetter
Algorithm: P. Newell (APL)
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Atmospheric Joule heating:
Atmospheric drag
Updated ~4mins
~45min forecast
Dst:
Input for various products
Updated ~4mins
~45min forecast
Model: SWMF T. Gombosi et al. (CSEM) L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
Presently available tools
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GIC Warning:
Electric power grid safety
Updated every 4mins
~45min forecast
Different mode for CME events
HF absorption:
Executing in real-time Model: AbbyNormal V. Eccles (USU)
Model: WSA/ENLIL, SWMF, A. Pulkkinen L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova
Presently available tools
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Available soon
Various updates, RT runs imminent J.-S. Shim, M. Kuznetsova
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S4 -Scintillation Index J. Retterer/AFRL
In implementation
J. S. Shim, M. Kuznetsova
Available soon
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Planetary SWx pages: available now
e.g., for Mars WSA/ENLIL P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter
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Innovative dissemination: iSWA
M. Maddox, D. Berrios, R. Mullinix, P. Jain iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov, >180 products
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US Air Force Weather Agency partnering
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Community V&V activities
SHINE – SW forecasting in planning J.-S. Shim, M. Kuznetsova, A. Pulkkinen, P. MacNeice
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Space weather tools: benefits
- Facilitate model evaluation through a relevant product
- Support NASA robotic mission ops (direct) and human
missions (through SRAG)
- Support bootstrapping of services at partners in government and
industry
- Showcase value of space research and modeling at NASA, NSF,
AFOSR, ONR… to interests in government as well as across
society
Admiral D. G. Farragut: Damn the torpedoes: Full speed ahead!
Vice Admiral Horatio Nelson: The measure may be thought
bold, but I am of the opinion the boldest are the safest
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Future of CCMC SWx Support
• Provide tool by which science progress at NASA, NSF, AFOSR, ONR feeds into Space Weather operations
• CCMC has unique experience in RT modeling and a trusted relation with model owners
• Space Weather Desk services supporting NASA robotic missions
– Integrating model output tailored to operator needs -> ISWA project
– Quasi-operational model results/forecasts already existing
– Unique scope and capabilities, also available to NASA’s SRAG
• Close working relations with AFWA, SMC/AFSPC, AFIT, USAFA,
AFRL, SWPC
• Partnering with EPRI, Space Environment Technologies, UStar, very
interested in more (international) collaborations