Exploring the
Science of Complexity
Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and PracticeODI, London9th July 2008
Policy Processes
Identify the problem
Commission research
Analyse the results
Choose the best option
Establish the policy
Evaluation
Implement the policy
Monitoring and Evaluation
Agenda Setting
DecisionMaking
Policy Implementation
Policy Formulation
Policy Processes
Civil Society
DonorsAffected
Legislative
Ministries
Private Sector
Complexity science• A loosely bound collection of ideas,
principles and influences from– fractal geometry – cybernetics– complex adaptive systems– postmodernism– systems thinking– chaos theory
• Discovery of similar patterns, processes and relationships in a wide variety of phenomena– related to the nature and dynamics of change
• Some fantastic images
Chemical reactions…
Genetics and cells…
How the brain works…
Animal populations and social structures…
Human settlements…
Global financial markets...
The formation of cyclones...
The evolution of galaxies...
Efforts to apply ideas• Arthur, Ormerod - Economics• Stacey, Mitleton-Kelly, Snowden -
Organisations• Jervis, Urry, Cutler - Intl relations• De Mancha - History• Gilchrist - Community development• Education policy - Sanders and
McCabe• Health policy - Zimmerman• Government reform - Chapman• Strategic thinking - Saunders
In aid and development...• Uphoff, 1990s• Chambers, 1997• Sellamna, 1999 • IDRC, Outcome Mapping, 2001• Warner, 2001• Rihani, 2002• Lansing and Miller, 2003• Inclusive Aid, 2004• ECDPM, 2004-06• Eyben, 2006• Guijt, various• Davies, Network Analysis, various
Questions remain...• What do we mean when we say
“complexity science”
• How can the concepts be utilised in aid policy and practice?
• What practical methods enable the concepts to be utilised?
• What implications are there?
Today we have...• Leading thinkers in complexity
– Eve Middleton-Kelly; Ralph Stacey
• Complexity science and development– Ben Ramalingam; Robert Chambers; Chris
Mowles
• “Open space” on methods– Rick Davies; Vicky Cosstick; Sean Lowrie;
Simon Hearn and Harry Jones; Enrique Mendizabal
• “Peer assist” on applications– Plan International; Tearfund; Vietnam
Academy; IDS