Download - Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
![Page 1: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
![Page 2: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Health and Safety
![Page 3: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Antarctic Youth Council
Charlie Wilkinson Miranda Voke Jacob Anderson Christoph Kraus Peggy Cunningham-Hales
Hanne Nielsen James Tremlett Lagi Tuimavave Ngahuia Leighton(Chair)
![Page 4: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Panel
Andrew Townend Dr Neil Gilbert Rear Admiral John Martin Lou Sanson
Tim NaishLionel Carter
![Page 5: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• A healthy (almost-)centenarian• An enduring ban on mining• A vigorous system of governance
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Andrew Townend
![Page 6: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Dr. Neil GilbertIndependent Antarctic Consultant
![Page 7: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
2010
2020Territorial claims
Regime implementation
Regime development
Sealing Convention
Mining Convention
Fishing Convention
Environmental Protocol
Antarctic Treaty
Agreed Measures ?
Liability Annex
![Page 8: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Influencing factors– Antarctic values (peak science?); climate & environmental
change; increasing human activity; belief in the system
• Choice 1 – Business as usual– Huge past success leading to “interested laissez-faire”
• Choice 2 – Enhanced commitment– Determination to invest in current system– An ATS fulfilling its global responsibilities
• Choice 3 – Future reinvented– A revised 21st century governance regime
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056 – it’s a choice thing!
![Page 9: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Rear Admiral John Martin, ONZM…
![Page 10: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
• What will be the emergent threats?
• Is our organisation consistent with our strategy?
• What is the honourable thing to do?
![Page 11: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
• Why our history with Antarctica really matters as kiwis
• Why a policy pull on science is so important to New Zealand
• Why people in nature will ultimately keep the ATS strong
Lou Sanson
![Page 12: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Lionel Carter
![Page 13: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
ice sheet loss increasing √
ice shelves retreating √
more icebergs ?
sea ice slight increase X
ocean warmer and fresher √
sea level rising √
changing winds √ currents stronger √
less alkaline √
biota affected e.g. plankton √ ?
31 Jan. 2002
23 Feb. 2002
13 April. 2002
Source: NSIDC
S. Ocean last 50yr - ongoing
![Page 14: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CampbellPlateau
DWBC
STF
?
?
?UU
O
Unclear
Observation
W
W A
WC
C
T
NZ Pole vs Equator now and ongoing
?
![Page 15: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
An example
Subantarctic NZ Ocean warming Reduced W winds Nutrients More blooms Likely Outcome Algal dominant as per
last warm period.
![Page 16: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Antarctic Treaty System and Science
Guarantees continued freedom to conduct scientific research
Promotes international scientific cooperation including the exchange of research plans and personnel, and requires that results of research be made freely available
![Page 17: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Tim Naish
![Page 18: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
NZ’s scientific tradition & reputation in Antarctica
![Page 19: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Big International Antarctic ScienceANDRILL
Ocean Drilling
Ice Coring
Census of Marine Ant. Life
Latitudinal Gradient Project
![Page 20: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Science DiplomacyMcMurdo Wind Farm
Admiral Dufek boards the Endeavour
• Science and diplomacy increasingly important to NZs broader foreign policy agenda
• China, Korea, USA, Italy
![Page 21: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Future science aligned with national and international priorities and directions
![Page 22: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Sources listed in Church et al. IPCC (2013)
DeConto & Pollard 2016
Golledge et al., 2015, Also Ritz et al., 2016, Nature1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
(m)
Climate change impacts on Antarctica and the impacts of Antarctic ice melt on global sea-level rise by 2065
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
RCP 8.5 business as usual
RCP 2.6 Paris target
• RCP 2.6 saves the Antarctic ice shelves
• More than 2°C above pre-industrial commits Antarctica to ongoing melt and sea-levels up to 10m above present.
• A critical issue for future ACTS is mitigation strategy to achieve Paris target
2065
![Page 23: Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070523/58ed7f041a28abc6318b4721/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Thank you