Download - European Foreign Policy
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European Foreign Policy
Quo Vadis, Europa?
Eugeniusz SmolarThe Polish Institute of International Affairs
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European Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy OPPORTUNITIESForeign Policy OPPORTUNITIES
!!! To further EU’s interests and
objectives To strengthen EU’s role in
the world To limit the uncertainties in international relations
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European Foreign Policy
CHALLENGECHALLENGESS !A task difficult to implementA task difficult to implement
27, 28, … sovereign Member States
Consequences of the Lisbon Treaty
Threats, problems, responsibilities
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European Foreign Policyand on top of it all…
Present economic and financial crisis !!!
Спасите наше души…
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European Foreign Policy
27, 28, … and more sovereign Member States
Large and small with:
different history and political traditions,
different foreign relations and…
different 27 geopolitics.
Can the European Union have common foreign policy?
look at the map…
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European Foreign Policy
THE OBJECTIVE:To make Europe „Whole, free and at peace”…
The consequences of enlargement6 – 7 – 12 – 15 – 27… and growing
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European Foreign Policy
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European Foreign Policy
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European Foreign Policy
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European Foreign Policy
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European Foreign Policy
Candidate Countries: • Croatia – 2013• The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Turkey (?)
In the future: other countries of Western Balkans?
WHO ELSE? Who knows???
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European Foreign Policy
The enlargement became
the most successful foreign policy tool of growing European Union.
Broadening the area of peace, stability and economic affluence
Exporting democratic values and benefits of free and open market
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European Foreign Policy
Lisbon Treaty – BIG Change ! • One amended treaty and not many treaties
• OFFICIAL DESCRIPTION OF INTENIONS: „It is designed to make the EU more democratic, efficient and transparent, and thereby able to tackle global challenges such as security, climate change and sustainable development”.
• More efficient, also in Union’s relations with the world
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European Foreign Policy
IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS• The EU became a legal entity with capability and
competences towards all external actors: o Other states or groups of states;o International organisations: United Nations,
NATO, OSCE, Council of Europe, IMF, G8 or G20, etc.
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European Foreign Policy
• Creation of the post of High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
• Catherine Ashton, High Representative, as Vice-President of the European Commission, ensures the consistency and coordination of the EU external action.
• The High Representative is assisted by the European External Action Service (EEAS) – new diplomatic service.
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European Foreign Policy THE COUNCIL
THE COMMISSION
THE PARLIAMENT
HIGH REPRESENTATIVE { THE BUDGET }
EUROPEAN EXTERNAL ACTION SERVICE
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European Foreign Policy
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? ЧТО ДЕЛАТЬ???Old and new threats known in a diplomatic
language as challenges• Instability in the Balkans• Afghanistan• Iran• Broader Middle East • Neighbourhood in the South – the Arab Spring• Neighbourhood in the East
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European Foreign Policy
BIG WORRY:
Energy security including our friend
Further economic developmentand competitiveness dependson it.
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European Foreign Policy
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• International organised crime• Cyber attacks• Piracy• Terrorism
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European Foreign Policy
TO DEAL WITH ALL THOSE „CHALLENGES” we have Member State’s
• Central and local administration• Police• Security services• Armies• Money • Diplomacies
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European Foreign Policy
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COORDINATION CAPACITIES OF THE EUNow we have the European diplomacy
WORK IN PROGRESS
1 year-old babyNatural tensions:With the interests and diplomacies of SOVEREIGN
Member Stateso Particularly of big and active Member States – Germany,
France, United Kingdom
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European Foreign Policy
The task is to: Integrate agreed policies at the EU level into:European Foreign and Security PolicyCommon Security and Defence Policy
Trade through norms and regulations, access to the biggest market in the world (some 450 million consumers)
International aid Visa-free travel and controlled immigration Measures against and soft and hard security threats
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European Foreign Policy
The task:Create EU and services institutions and assure
mechanisms of integration with: Member States’ policies, institutions and services
International bodies and organisations
There is a new relationship between domestic issues, economic development, social stability and foreign policy, f.ex. immigration. Look at Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy or France now.
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European Foreign Policy
We have to be prepared as we all learned
to expect the unexpected Wars Revolutions Terrorist attacks Energy flow stoppageand we know that…
shit happensshit happens!!25
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European Foreign Policy
Our closest friends,Our closest friends,THE AMERICANS THE AMERICANS
should better tell us should better tell us about about THEIRTHEIR plans.plans.
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European Foreign Policy
It would also helpif we would
know his plans…
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European Foreign Policy
Or their plans…
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European Foreign Policy
RUSSIA – EU’s NEIGHBOUR AND PARTNER
Russia’s foreign and defence policy
Difficult relations with the EU, NATO and the U.S. Energy Self-evident Trade WTO membership important EU – Russia Neighbourhood NATO – Russia Neighbourhood – Enlargement? US – Russia Missile Defence, neighbourhood
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European Foreign Policy
Problematic relations with the sovereign states in our common neighbourhood
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European Foreign Policy
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WHY NATO when we discuss the EU?European membership of the EU and NATO
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European Foreign Policy
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Difficulties with formulation of:
EFSP – European Foreign and Security Policy&
CSDP – Common Security and Defence Policy
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European Foreign Policy
THE REASONS Generation change – a war in Europe???
Abstract concept after 65 years of peace
Lack of strategic thinking and political will Diverse interests and traditions of MS The EU has interests but can hardly have
common GEOPOLITICS
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European Foreign Policy
A particular challenge: TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS
NATO is the main mechanism of discussing security and negotiating possible actions;
Majority of EU members wish to strengthen EFSP & CSDP, but without weakening NATO;
Many MS do not wish to see the EU as an actor engaging in hard security.
THE EU HAVE BEEN REGARDED AS A ‘SOFT SECURITY’ ACTOR
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European Foreign Policy
What has changed lately? Clear weakness of the European defence capabilities.
o The Europeans together have bigger army than the US but can effectively use less than 1/3.
o To many relics of the Cold War strategies: armament and deployments.
o Cuts in defence spending. There are „challenges” and instabilities but no threat
of a major war in Europe. Expeditionary/defence capabilities are now needed.
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THREATS ARE NOW COMING FROM DISTAND LANDS
There are no illusions that just ”soft power”
will persuade those guys to occupy themselves with something peaceful…
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European Foreign Policy
MAKE LOVE NOT WAR
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European Foreign Policy
There were 22 EU missions abroad since the 90th: Military: Bosnia, Chad, off the Somali coast,
completed – in Macedonia and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Paramilitary: to reform the security sector in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea-Bissau, completed in the Sudanese region of Darfur.
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European Foreign Policy
EU missions abroad… Civilian: mainly policing operations, in Afghanistan,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Palestine.
EU civilian observers have also been stationed in Georgia since the war of August 2008, as well as at the Rafah border crossing in the Palestinian Gaza Strip.
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European Foreign Policy
EU Missions Objectives: To save lives (stop the civil war) To mediate in international conflicts To assure stability and help with the reconstruction Nation-building in weak states
EU International Aid – effective tool of EU foreign policy
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European Foreign Policy
THE CASE OF LIBYA
Not EU operation!French-British led with
international support
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European Foreign Policy
Britain did not want EU involvement, always investing into the future of NATO;
France did not want NATO and was persuaded
by Obama to accept it;
Germany (and Poland)
decided to go on holidays…
Common approach at its best???
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LIBYA IS NOT A GAME-CHANGER
It is a ‘coalition of the willing’ with France and the UK in the driving seat
The US really took a back-seat (a shock to many) The EU will remain a „soft power” power, like in
Tunisia, Egypt or mediating in the Israeli – Palestinian conflict
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European Foreign Policy
The participants in Libya campaign realised their
relative weakness – limited capabilities Will Europe
do something about it??? Probably YES
but not as the EU
for years to come.
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European Foreign Policy
There could be no such animal…
determined British gentlemen
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There is and… there is no European Foreign and Security Policy at the moment,but we are working on it.
We have o Experienceso Institutional structure
Political will follows the needsCRISIS ALWAYS HELPS
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European Foreign Policy
Immediate challenge: the Neighbourhood
SOUTH AND EASTHow to change THREATS into shared OPPORTUNITIES
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European Foreign Policy
From diverse interests, lack of trust and mutual recriminations to collective responsibility.
We do not pretend to be able to take responsibility for global security.
But we all have to contribute to global security and development.
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European Foreign Policy
We could build such policy with you
Russia might even join the EU
You are welcome! Thank you for your attention
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