European Commission: DG Environment
Overview of projections data use in the
European policy-making process
TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections,
30 October 2006
Eduard Dame
Energy and Environment, DG Environment C5
European Commission: DG Environment
Impact Assessment
All substantial Commission proposals have to be accompanied by an Impact Assessment
Economic, social and environmental impacts
Alternative solutions
Projections are a basic element
For Unit C5 of DG ENV energy projections are part of their core
business.
European Commission: DG Environment
Projections data
Baseline projection (what most probably will happen) starts from a base year includes foreseen changes in activity rates includes future changes in abatement efficiencies according to current
legislation
Scenario (what could happen if……) MTFR Numerous scenarios between baseline and MFTR
Sensitivity cases Important to check robustness of results
European Commission: DG Environment
Revision of NEC-Directive
Three + one basic elements:
Emission inventory + baseline projection Objectives Optimization
Robust legal solution
European Commission: DG Environment
Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections
1. Emissions will further decline
2. But: Air quality remains threat to human health
3. Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached
4. Relevance of sources will change
5. Ships will surpass land-based EU sources
6. Energy projections will influence future emissions
European Commission: DG Environment
Objectives of Thematic Strategy
Improvements by 2020 relative to 2000
Life Years lost from particulate matter (million) 47%
Acute mortality from ozone 10%
Ecosystem forest area exceeded from acidification 74%
Ecosystem freshwaters area exceeded from acidification
39%
Ecosystem area exceeded from eutrophication 43%
Forest area exceeded by ozone 15%
European Commission: DG Environment
What has changed since CAFE?
Second round of bilateral consultations with 22 countries and 5 industrial associations
New projections of future economic activities: National energy projections from 21 Member States National agricultural projections from 17 Member States 2005 PRIMES energy projections ($50 oil price, etc.) 2005 CAPRI agricultural projections (mid-term review of CAP)
Improved information on emission inventories (esp. for PM2.5, VOC)
Current legislation includes Commission Euro 5 proposal for diesel passenger and light duty vehicles
European Commission: DG Environment
NEC baseline emission projections EU-25, National projections, relative to 2000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland
France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia
Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia
Slovenia Spain Sweden UK Bulgaria Croatia
Romania Turkey Norway Switzerland EU-25
European Commission: DG Environment
NEC and CAFE baseline emission projections , EU-25, relative to 2000 levels
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
00
20
10
20
20
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
CAFE baseline National energy projections
European Commission: DG Environment
Main reasons for differences:Different assumptions on energy development
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Coal Biomass,waste
Heavy fueloil
Diesel, lightfuel oil
Gasoline Natural gas Nuclear Otherrenewables
1000
PJ
2000 National energy projections 2020 CAFE baseline 2020
European Commission: DG Environment
Energy projections for 2020EU-25
0
20
40
60
80
1990 2000 Nationalprojections
PRIMES20060€
PRIMES200620€
PRIMES200690€
CAFE BLPRIMES 2004
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
EJ
COAL OIL GAS BIOMASS OTHER
European Commission: DG Environment
CAFE BL
National NEC projections
0 €
20 €
90 €
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
Air
po
lluta
nt
emis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
a 0
€ c
ase
SO2 NOx PM25
Assumptions on future climate policies EU-25, 2020
90 €
20 €
0 €
National NEC projections
CAFE BL
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
Air
po
lluta
nt
emis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
a 0
€ c
ase
SO2 NOx PM25
CAFE BL
National NEC projections
0 €
20 €
90 €
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
Air
po
lluta
nt
emis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
a 0
€ c
ase
SO2 NOx PM25
90 €
20 €
0 €
National NEC projections
CAFE BL
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
Air
po
lluta
nt
emis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
a 0
€ c
ase
SO2 NOx PM25
European Commission: DG Environment
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH
3 e
mis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
200
0
NH3 from CAFE Baseline animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from CAPRI model animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and national interpretation of IPPC
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH
3 e
mis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
200
0
NH3 from CAFE Baseline animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from CAPRI model animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and national interpretation of IPPC
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH
3 e
mis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
200
0
NH3 from CAFE Baseline animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from CAPRI model animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and national interpretation of IPPC
Assumptions on agricultural policies
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH
3 e
mis
sio
ns
rela
tiv
e to
200
0
NH3 from CAFE Baseline animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from CAPRI model animal numbers and strict interpretation of IPPCNH3 from national animal numbers and national interpretation of IPPC
European Commission: DG Environment
Differences between TS and NECD
Thematic Strategy2003
NEC2006
Baseline projections CAFE-baseline • Member States NECD –baseline• EU-wide baseline(s) with no, low and high carbon constraint
Final Objective Between A en B As set in Thematic Strategy,but……….!
Scenarios A, B, C and MFTR A certain number, including C, MFTR, ship emissions, CCS, further Community measures and emission reduction outside EU-27.
Optimization RAINS RAINS/GAINS
European Commission: DG Environment
Conclusions Conference 29/9 Emission Inventories and Projections
Inventories and projections of RAINS match well with national projections. National and EU wide projections are close to similar, and differences – if any – are often explained.
There is a strong need for coherent emission projections for greenhouse gases and air pollutants up to 2020 and beyond. Inventories and projections should therefore be checked by relevant ministries and institutions in a Member State before submission.
Revision and streamlining of reporting and monitoring requirements of all atmospheric pollutants (NEC and greenhouse gases) should result in an integrated decision, preferably in 2008. Amendment of the Monitoring Mechanism Decision (280/2004/EC) seems to be an appropriate way forward.
The quality of the emission data is important. Several projects aim to improve the quality of the data, especially for PM2.5. End 2007/beginning 2008 a revised EMEP/Corinair Guidebook will be available for use.
European Commission: DG Environment
Conclusions Conference 29/9 National Emissions Ceilings 2010/2020
Ceilings 2010 Member States need to prepare their NEC National Programmes well and have to
send their programmes to the Commission before the end of 2006. The Commission - as the guardian of the Treaty - needs to ensure that the
programmes are submitted and that the content is consistent with requirements of the NEC-Directive
If a Member State does not meet one of more NEC ceilings in 2010 due to a lack of action, it should not be rewarded when setting new emissions ceilings for 2020.
Ceilings 2020 4. The emission ceilings for 2020 have to fulfill the objectives of the Thematic Strategy.
European Commission: DG Environment
Conclusions Conference 29/9 Interaction GHG and air pollution
Physical and economic interaction between the control of air pollution emissions and GHG mitigation exist; the GAINS model offers a tool for an integrated analysis.
Costs of air pollution policies would decrease (significantly) due to climate policies. Cost of greenhouse gas policies would decrease when a specific health target is met. In a joint optimisation a 15% reduction of CO2 would deliver the highest cost savings, which are immediate and ‘real money’.
The integration between climate change and air quality policies will certainly intensify in the future. Scientists and policymakers should accelerate this process, e.g. by intensifying information exchange and by developing policies that affect both policy area's.
European Commission: DG Environment
Political dimension
Reporting emissions
Scientific purposes Compliance Consistency
Reporting projections
Member States could show tendency to overestimate in the policy making phase ; strategic behavior?
Member States show tendency to be optimistic during implementation phase Consistency
European Commission: DG Environment
General conclusions
Output of one model is input for others: EC4MAC’s under LIFE+, project aims to tune the most important models, so that the input of one can easily used for another: RAINS/GAINS, CAPRI, PRIMES, Tremove, City-delta, GEM-3
There is no such thing as a perfect baseline projections. After finalizing, any baseline projection is subject to a relative fast rate of decay.
Baseline emissions are critically depending on assumptions on the implementation of other EU policies.
Setting baseline emissions has definitely a political dimension.