Download - E.SUN Academic Award presentation (Jan 2016)
Galit Shmueli 徐茉莉Tsing Hua Distinguished Professor
AnalyticsHumanityInnovation
E. Sun Bank Academic Award
The End of Competitive Advantage Rita McGrath (Columbia U)
Taipei 15/12/2015
“Banking must re-invent itself” 玉山金控總經理/黃男州
“Statistics must re-invent itself"
Research in Data Analytics‘Entrepreneurial’
statistical & data mining modeling (for today’s problems)
Interdisciplinary modeling
Statistical StrategyTo Explain or To Predict?Information QualityRegression with Big Data
ONE-WAY MIRRORS IN ONLINE DATING A Randomized Field Experiment
Management Science, forthcoming
A TREE-BASED APPROACH FOR ADDRESSING SELF-SELECTION IN IMPACT STUDIES WITH BIG DATA
MIS Quarterly, forthcoming
A Tree-Based Approach for Addressing Self-selection in Impact Studies with Big Data
Inbal Yahav Galit Shmueli Deepa ManiBar Ilan University National Tsing Hua U Indian School of Business Israel Taiwan India
Self Selection: The Challenge• Large impact studies
of an intervention• Individuals/firms
choose which group to join
How to identify and adjust for self-selection?
Current Methods: Challenges with Big Data1. Matching leads to severe data loss
2. Suffer from “data dredging”
3. Do not identify variables that drive the selection
4. Assume constant intervention effect
5. Sequential nature is computationally costly
6. Requires user to specify form of selection model
Our Tree-Based Approach: Use a data mining algorithm in a novel way!
Flexible non-parametric selection model
Automated detection of unbalanced variables
Easy to interpret, transparent, visual
Applicable to binary, polytomous, continuous intervention
Useful in Big Data context
Identify heterogeneous effects
Example: Impact of training on financial gains
Experiment: USA govt program randomly assigned eligible candidates to training program• Goal: increase future earnings• Results (LaLonde, 1986) :
Groups statistically equal in terms of demographic & pre-train earnings
Average Training Effect = $1794 (p<0.004)
Tree reveals… High-School Matters!
LaLonde’s naïve approach (experiment)
Tree approachHS dropout
(n=348)HS degree
(n=97)Not trained (n=260) $4554 $4,495 $4,855Trained (n=185) $6349 $5,649 $8,047
Training effect
$1794(p=0.004)
$1,154(p=0.063)
$3,192(p=0.015)
Overall: $1598 (p=0.017)
no yes
High school degree
ONE WAY MIRRORS IN ONLINE DATINGA Randomized Field Experiment
Ravi Bapna, University of MinnesotaJui Ramaprasad, Mcgill UniversityGalit Shmueli, National Tsing Hua
UniversityAkhmed Umyarov, University of
Minnesota
Online Dating
46
of the single population in the US uses online dating to find a partner (Gelles 2011)
%
14/20Online Dating Website
15/20Non-anonymous Browsing (Default)
Profile Visit
Recent visitor:
16/20Anonymous Browsing
Profile Visit
Recent visitor:
NONE
17/20Research Question (in simple words)
How does anonymous browsing affect user behavior?
… and matching?
Formal Research Question
what is the relative causal effect of social inhibitions on search preferences vs. social inhibitions of contact initiation in dating markets?
given known gender asymmetries, how does this effect differ for men vs. women?
19/20
Randomized Field Experiment on Large Online Dating Website
50,000 users receive gift of anonymous browsing
20/20Results
Users treated with anonymity
become disinhibited view more profiles, view more same-sex and interracial mates
get less matcheslose ability to leave a weak signal - especially harmful for women!
Role of anonymity and importance of WEAK SIGNAL
in online platforms