Estimating Public Intangibles in Real Time

F. Bacchini (Istat), RomeR. Iannaccone, (Istat), Rome

Society for Economic Measurement Annual ConferenceThessaloniki (Greece), July 6th- 8th, 2016

This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for

research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 612774

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Outline

• Timeliness problem and data available (nominal investment)

• Information set and methodology for real time estimation

• Estimation for Italy

• Robustness check

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Information set for intagibles: di�erent across assets . . .

Introduction of SNA 2008 ESA 2010, R&D is now classi�ed asinvestment

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. . . and across countries

USA: Intangible Investment as

Source TCBE SPINTAN 4 / 15

What we have: use table 2012 (for some asset)

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What we have: information set after 2012 -1

Total intermediate consumption for industry

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What we have: information set after 2012 - 2

Annual account for institutional sector

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What we have: information set after 2012 - 3

Turnover in services quarterly data

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Methodology - step 1

Estimation for industry

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Methodology - step 1

Estimation for asset - total industry

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Methodology - step 2

estimation product using STS+NA (hours worked in training)

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Methodology - step 3

average from step 1-2

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Robustness check

Estimation vs. real data - Italy

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Final results

Italy intangibles estimation 2010-2015

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Further steps

• Complete real time estimation for European countries includingalso assets as R&D

• extend a rolling robustness check (for example now 2011-2012) toimprove estimation performance

• extend the approach to market sector

• create a short-term index for intangibles

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