Environmental Scan for Rehabilitation Programme Plan
Demographic Trend
Population pyramids for 2004, 2010 and 2033 – Ageing trend
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
Thousands
Mid 2010
Male Female
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
Thousands
Mid 2004
FemaleMale
-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
Thousands
Mid 2033
Male Female
Elderly Population in Hong Kong
374 600 546 000
795 500 978 000
2 243 100
1 548 500
13.2%
7.0%9.3%
11.7%
26.8%
19.4%
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
1983 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
no. of elders (aged >= 65) % of total population
For the time being 1 in 8 of population are older persons while 1 in 4 will be older persons by 2033.
Impact of the ageing trend In coming decade, we have
additional 180,000 older persons (grow by 23%).
The disability types with higher prevalence among older persons such as visual impairment, hearing impairment and restriction in body movement will be on rising trend
≧ 60
≧ 60
≧ 60
≧ 60
≧ 60
≧ 60
≧ 60
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Restriction in
body movement
Seeing difficulty
Hearing difficulty
Speech difficulty
Mental illness
Autism
Overall
Total population
<15 15-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 ≧ 60
Age profile of persons with disabilities based on 2000 Disability Survey
Prevalence of disability by age (based on 2000 Disability Survey)
Preva lence of Disability by Age
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
< 15
15-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
≧ 60
Ag
e g
rou
p
P ercenat ge (%)
Percentage (%)
Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate has decreased from 1.93 per woman aged 15-49 in 1981 to 0.93 in 2004
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e,No
. of c
hildr
en p
er w
omen
age
d 15
-49
0.93
Number of birth and median age of first order live birth
76126
67731 68637
5413447892
26.2
27.8
28.7
29.3 29.4
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Number of births Median age of first order live birth
The no. of birth keeps on deceasing while the median age of mother at first order live birth keeps on increasing. In 2004, about 45% of the first children are born by mother aged 30 or above.
Medical advancement According to a HKU study, infants with Con
genital Malformation were of shorter gestation, with lower birth weight, born to mother with more advanced age.
With advancement in prenatal diagnostic technologies, increasing percentage of birth defects are diagnosed prenatally.
Physical or mental abnormality can be avoided or treated through early detection
Fetus with physical or mental abnormality
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Number of legal termination of pregnancy performed on the ground of fetus'physcial or mental abnormality
Inpatient admissions for congenital anomalies
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Medical advancement Some diseases such as Polio are also
eradicated in HK with the full vaccination Early detection of disability can trigger
early treatment Low birth rate together with medical
advancement, the cases of inborn disability is expected to drop. Yet, the impact may be offset by the increasing awareness of disabilities of various types.
Analysis of Cases Assessed (Ages 0-11 Child Assessment Services)
341
2210
167 126218 136
45
439
1583
461
790
77196
634
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MentalHandicap
SpeechImpairment
(Language &Speech
Disorders)
SpecificLearning
Disabilities
HearingImpairment
Autistic SpectumDisorders
PhysicalHandicap
VisualImpairment
2000 2004
For PH cases in 2000:
81 cerebral palsy, 50 motor coordination disorders and 5 other PI cases.
In 2004:
32 cerebral palsy, 746 Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCDs) and 12 other PH cases.
Analysis of Cases Assessed (Child Assessment Services and Student Health Service (P.1 –S.7))
352
2212
217405
218 14546
444
1584
461
812
1130
79
795
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MentalHandicap
SpeechImpairment
(Language &Speech
Disorders)
SpecificLearning
Disabilities
HearingImpairment
Autistic SpectumDisorders
PhysicalHandicap
VisualImpairment
2000 2004
Mental illness Mental illness is on a rising trend Psychological stress is linked to both
the onset and course of a mental illness
Life circumstances such as unemployment, relationship breakdown, bereavement and major physical illness or injury were linked to depression and anxiety disorders.
Number of suicide deaths and suicide death rate
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Number of suicide deaths Suicide death rate
No. of suicide deathsNumber per 100000
population
Suicide death is on a rising trend.
Unemployment rate in HK for the past two decades
0123456789
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Unemployment rate
% The unemployment rate in the past decade fluctuated on a rising trend.
Attendances of day rehabilitation service - Psychiatric day hospital
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
No
. of a
tten
da
ces
The number of attendance of rehabilitation service increased by 10% per year before 2003/04.
Note: Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS
SOPC attendances - Psychiatric
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
SOPC - Psychiatrics SOP New cases
SOPC Attendances SOP new cases
The SOPC attendances increased by 6.5% per year
Note: Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS
Inpatient admissions for mental illness
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Note: Figure for 2003 might be affected by SARS
Community Psychiatric Service
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
Community Psychiatric Nursing Services / Community PsychiatricTeams / CommunityPsychiatric Services
No. of attendances/home visits
Notes:
(1) Covered CPNS home visits only in 1997/98-1998/99. Covered CPNS homes visits and CPT activities in 1999/00-2002/03. Covered CPS activities (merging of CPNS and CPT) in 2003/04-2004/05
(2) Figure for 2003/04 might be affected by SARS
Rehabilitative Services provided to mentally ill and ex-mentally ill persons by SWD
230 230 230 230 230
770
980 980 980 1005
1307 1349 1349 13491429
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Training andactivity centrefor ex-mentallyill persons
Long stay carehome
Halfway house
Waiting lists for rehabilitative services provided to mentally ill and ex-mentally ill persons by SWD
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Waiting list forTraining andactivity centre forex-mentally illpersons
Waiting list forlong stay carehome
Waiting list forhalfway house
Note: no central waiting list for training and activity centre for ex-mentally ill persons is kept by SWD from 2005 onwards.
Waiting time for Rehabilitative Services provided to mentally ill persons by SWD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Training andactivity centrefor ex-mentallyill persons
Long stay carehome
Halfway house
months
Note: no central waiting list for training and activity centre for ex-mentally ill persons is kept by SWD from 2005 onwards.
External factors affecting the occurrence of disabilities -Occupational Injury
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Non-fatal occupational injuries Fatal occupational injuries
Decreasing trend in occupational injuries in the past few years
No. of cases under the Employees’ Compensation Ordinance resulted in permanent loss of earning capacity
0
20004000
6000
800010000
12000
14000
1600018000
20000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Number of cases under ECO resulted in permanent loss of earning capacity
A mild decreasing trend observed in the past few years.
Traffic accidents and casualties
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
Serious Fatal
Claims for Criminal and Law Enforcement Injuries
Compensation and Traffic Accident Victims Assistance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Successful claims for CLEICS excl. deaths Successful claims for TAVA excl. deaths
CLEIC claimsTAVA claims
A mild decreasing trend for CLEIC claims but a mild increasing trend for TAVA
Conclusions in respect of future disability trend
The cases of inborn disability are subject to two opposing forces of medical advancement and higher probability of congenital malformation due to first born at higher age.
Cases of intellectual disabilities will be rising. Based on the current trend, the cases of mental illness will
continue to increase in coming years. The decreasing trend of disabilities arising from
occupational injuries should continue as the growing number of employment in the service sector which are subject to less risk of industrial or occupational injuries.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
VisualImpairment
HearingImpairment
PhysicalDisability
MildIntellectualDisability
ModerateIntellectualDisability
SevereIntellectualDisability
Grand Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Enrolment of students with disabilities in special schools (1999/00-2004/05)
Note: Children with autistic disorder studying in special schools are usually affiliated with intellectual disability, hence they are grouped under the category of intellectual disability.
Enrolment of students in special schools by type of disability in 2004
2713,42%
1583,25%
815, 13%160, 3% 332, 5%
778, 12%
Visual Impairment
Hearing Impairment
Physical Disability
Mild Intellectual Disability
Moderate IntellectualDisability
Severe Intellectual Disability
Total: 6381
About 80% with intellectual disabilities
Note: Children with autistic disorder studying in special schools are usually affiliated with intellectual disability, hence they are grouped under the category of intellectual disability
Enrolment of students with visual, hearing, physical, intellectual disability or autistic disorders in ordinary schools
12921458
1735 1830
574 638827
966
18662096
2562
2796
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001 2002 2003 2004
Enrolment ofstudent (P1-P6)
Enrolment ofstudents in S1-S7
Enrolment ofstudents in P1-S7
Distribution of students in ordinary primary school by type of disability in 2004
490,27%
141, 11%
466, 35%
41, 3%
692, 51%
VisualImpairment
HearingImpairment
PhysicalDisability
IntellectualDisability
Autisticdisorders
Total: 1830
Distribution of students in ordinary secondary school by type of disability in 2004
109, 11%
320, 37%
73, 9%
436, 51%
28, 3% VisualImpairment
HearingImpairment
PhysicalDisability
IntellectualDisability
Autisticdisorders
Total: 966
Number of children referred for admission from ordinary school to special school
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 ( up to March
2005)Primary Secondary
The rate of reverting to special school is about 5 to 7 % of the enrolment in ordinary school.
Employment by industry sectors for the whole economy in 2004
7%
8%
32%
15%
26%
1%
11%
Manufacturing
Construction sites
Wholesale, retail and import/exporttrades, restaurants and hotels
Transport, storage andcommunications
Financing, insurance, real estimateand business services
Community, social and personalservices
Others
The training programmes are adjusted to suit the market demand for commercial and services workers
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2004
Basic Catering Service
Computer and NetworkInstallationGeneral Service Work
Industrial Art-Jewellery
Industrial Art - Leather work
Interior decoration
Machine Sewing
Office Assistant Practice
Office Computing & Practice
Office reception practice
Packaging service
Printing
Basic technical studies
Silkscreen and colour printing
Massage service
Logistics service
Commercial & retailingservices
No. of trainees
Some old programmes were replaced by new ones.
Employment status of graduates of 2000-2002
216 213 222
3837 41
77 7
4047 55
24 36 41
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002
Not seekingemployment
Pursuing full-timestudy
Waiting to report forduty
Seeking employment
Employed
Ave. monthly salary: $3,315
Ave. monthly salary: $2,766
Ave. monthly salary: $2,392
Selective Placements by Disability Group
648 646 663 540652
5890
5787
72
271319
262208
203
229 357
356352
293
350 356477
391426
451 580 757864 745
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Mentallyhandicapped
Ex-mentally ill
Chronically ill
Physicallyhandicapped
Visually impaired
Hearing impaired
Selective Placements by Occupational Group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Production workers, transport equipmentoperators and labourers (e.g. Driver, Packer,Store Worker, etc.)
Agricultural, animal husbandry, forestryworkers and fishermen (e.g. AnimalHusbandman, Farm Worker, Gardener, etc.)
Service workers (e.g. Cleaner, Cook, SecurityGuard, etc.)
Sales workers (e.g. Sales Representative,Salesperson, Shop Assistant, etc.)
Clerical and related workers (e.g. Clerk,Office Assistant, Recepionist, etc.)
Administrative and managerial workers (e.g.Manager, Management Executive, MarketingOfficer, etc.)
Professional, technical and related workers(e.g. Accountant, System Analyst, Designer,etc.)
Selective placements by salary range
518704
11001301 1197
318280
406322
334
392475
426362
363
303
374
307 229 272
206
186
149 102 107
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
$9,000 or above
$8,000 - $8,999
$7,000 - $7,999
$6,000 - $6,999
$5,000 - $5,999
$4,000 - $4,999
$3,000 - $3,999
Under $3,000*
Provision of supported employment provided by SWD
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mar 2001 Mar 2002 Mar 2003 Mar 2004 Mar 2005
Integratedvocationalrehabilitativeservice centres
Supportedemployment
Shelteredworkshop
Total demand for supported employment services provided by SWD
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Mar 2001 Mar 2002 Mar 2003 Mar 2004 Mar 2005
Watiting list forsupported employment
Watiting list forsheltered workshop
Integrated vocationalrehabilitative servicecentres
Supported employment
Sheltered workshop
Average waiting time for sheltered workshop and supported employment (months)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05
Watitingtime forshelteredworkshop
Watitingtime forsupportedemployment
Financial support to PWDs - CSSA/DA
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Higher Disability Allowance (0-59) Normal Disability Allowance (0-59)CSSA (Disabled) All
Some 68,000 PWDs (aged below 60) receive financi
al support through CSSA or DA in mid 2004.
CSSA (Permanent Disability category)
NDA
HDA
All
Comment and discussion