End Q3-2020 Exchequer Returns
John McCarthy
Chief Economist, Department of Finance
2nd October 2020
2 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Exchequer position: summary
3 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Exchequer position – overview
Jan-Sept, 2020 € million year-on-year change, %
Total revenue 55,428 2.1
: tax revenue 39,568 -3.0
: non-tax revenue 5,583 32.3
of which: NAMA transfer to Exchequer [ = gg neutral ] 2,000 -
: appropriations-in-aid 10,277 10.4
Total expenditure 64,800 19.4
: current 53,627 22.6
: capital 4,776 16.8
: non-voted expenditure 6,397 -0.5
Exchequer balance -9,373 -
gg = general government
= main measure of fiscal position
4 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Revenue developments
5 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Tax revenue to end-q3, 2020: 2020 vs 2019, € millions
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
excise duties
corporation tax
income taxes
VAT
other
total
2019
2020
total tax receipts = €39.6 bn
- €1.2 bn
- 3.0% year-on-year
6 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Individual tax headings, year to end-q3 2020
q1-q3 2020 change vs q1-q3 2019
outturn, €m €m per cent
Income Tax 15,429 -323 -2.1
VAT 9,868 -2,444 -19.9
Corporation Tax 7,469 1,631 27.9
Excise 3,794 -571 -13.1
Stamps 935 -31 -3.2
CGT 299 5 1.8
Motor Tax 732 -27 -3.5
Customs 185 -66 -26.4
CAT 192 8 -4.6
Unallocated 664 605 -
Total 39,568 -1,213 -3.0
Note figures are rounded
7 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Expenditure developments
8 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Voted^ current expenditure to end-q3, 2020 vs 2019, €millions
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
total
social protection
health
transport
other
2019
2020
current expenditure = €53.7 bn→ €9.9 bn
→ 22.6% year-on-year increase
additional Covid-related expenditure on social protection → €6.9 bn
→ 45.4% year-on-year
additional Covid-related expenditure on health→ €2.0 bn
→ 15.9% year-on-year
^ gross figures
9 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
total
business
education
transport
other
2019
2020
capital spending = €4.8 bn→ €0.7 bn
→ 16.8% year-on-year increasecovid-related funding to business
Voted capital expenditure to end-q2, 2020 vs 2019, €millions
^ gross figures
10 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Conclusion
11 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Summary
• End-Q3: tax revenue = €39.6 billion
- annual decrease of €1.2 billion
- VAT and Excise down €3 billion on 2019
annual increase of 1.1 per cen PANDEMIC-related
• End-Q3: gross voted expenditure = €58.4 bn.- €10.6 billion ahead on last year
- current = 22.6 per cent ahead of 2019
- capital = 16.8 per cent ahead of 2019
• Exchequer deficit of €9.4 billion at end-Q3 2020- deterioration of €9.4 billion vs. first small surplus at end-Q3 2019
- primarily driven by increases in expenditure resulting from Covid-19
• General Government deficit larger – set out in “White Paper” [ Friday 9/10/20 ]- local authority deficit
- social insurance fund deficit
- NAMA = ‘financial transaction’
- other
12 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Annex
13 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland
Unprecedented surge in household saving - data published this morning
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361
99
9Q
1
199
9Q
3
200
0Q
1
200
0Q
3
200
1Q
1
200
1Q
3
200
2Q
1
200
2Q
3
200
3Q
1
200
3Q
3
200
4Q
1
200
4Q
3
200
5Q
1
200
5Q
3
200
6Q
1
200
6Q
3
200
7Q
1
200
7Q
3
200
8Q
1
200
8Q
3
200
9Q
1
200
9Q
3
201
0Q
1
201
0Q
3
201
1Q
1
201
1Q
3
201
2Q
1
201
2Q
3
201
3Q
1
201
3Q
3
201
4Q
1
201
4Q
3
201
5Q
1
201
5Q
3
201
6Q
1
201
6Q
3
201
7Q
1
201
7Q
3
201
8Q
1
201
8Q
3
201
9Q
1
201
9Q
3
202
0Q
1
% tota
l household
dis
posable
incom
e
Household Savings Rate, savings as per cent of disposable income
Residual HH savings ratio Long Term Average
unprecedented figure