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Effectuation at Creative CampLake Constance, 18 May 2014
Alexandra Rudl, Bernd Buck, Carsten Holtmann, Klaus Haasis, Ralf Allrutz
https://ita.ucsf.edu/entrepreneurship‐center
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What makes entrepreneursentrepreneurial?
Source: therisetothetop.com
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Effectuation – Was ist das denn?
• Herkunft Entrepreneurship‐Forschung(Prof. Saras Sarasvathy et al.)
• Interviews mit „Experten‐Unternehmern“ zu erfundener unternehmerischer Gelegenheit
• Ergebnisse:– Erkundendes Handeln– Kreation der Zukunft– Auf Basis der eigenen Mittel und Interessen– Kaum konkrete Ziele, Vorhersage oder Planung
Vier Prinzipien – ein Prozess
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Ungewissheit vs. „Sicherheit“
ZukunftZukunftAlles ist möglich
Es ist klar,was kommt
ZieleZieleVerhan‐delbar
Stehenfest
InformationenInformationenIn alleRichtungen
Sindeindeutig
VeränderungenVeränderungenPassierenständig
Kommenlangsam
KomplexitätKomplexitätüberfordert UnterKontrolle
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Navigieren unter Ungewissheit:Es geht nicht darum, wie Unternehmer sind, sondern wie sie unter Ungewissheit erfolgreich denken und handeln
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Wann ist Effectuation sinnvoll?
© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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Anwendungsgebiete
• Gründung• Innovation• Veränderungsprozesse• Coaching• „Alltägliches“
– Kochen– Altersvorsorge
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Die fehlende Toolbox?statistischlinearprognostizierbarbekanntabschätzbarPlanbarwiederholbarWissen
dynamisch
nicht prognostizierbar
unbekannt
nicht planbar
nicht abschätzbar
Source: www.blogs.telerik.com
Kausale BWL‐Tools ?
volatil
komplex
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Bird in Hand – Start with your means Affordable Loss – Focus on the downside risk
Leverage contingencies Patchwork Quilt – Form Partnerships
Die 4 Effectuation Prinzipien
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Prinzip der Mittelorientierung
Bird in Hand – Start with your means
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© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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Eure MittelWer bin ich?• Werte und Normen• Kultur • Vorlieben und
Abneigungen• Prinzipien und
Charakter
Was weiss ich?• Fähigkeiten• Erfahrungen• Fertigkeiten• Bildung (Uni, Schule,
Ausbildung)• Bücher und Zeitungen
Wen kenne ich?• Kollegen• Professionelles Netzwerk• Familie und Freunde• Kunden und Dienstleister• Vereine und Verbände• Soziale Netzwerke
http://de.fotolia.com/Content/Comp/48430981
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Prinzip des leistbaren Verlusts
Affordable Loss – Focus on the downside risk
© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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Euer möglicher Einsatz
• Zeit• Kapital• Kontakte• Selbstwert • Name / Ruf
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“So people often say to me, ‘When you built the system, you must have known that making it self‐sustainable was the only way eBay could grow to serve 40 million users a day’. Well...nope. I made the system self‐sustaining for one reason: Back when I launched eBay […], eBay wasn’t my business ‐ it was my hobby. I had to build a system that was self‐sustaining... Because I had a real job to go to every morning. I was working as a software engineer from 10 to 7, and I wanted to have a life on the weekends. So I built a system that could keep working catching complaints and capturing feedback even when Pam and I were out mountain‐biking, and the only one home was our cat.”
Pierre Omidyar, eBay Founder
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Prinzip der Umstände und Zufälle
Leverage contingencies
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© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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http://www.basicthinking.de/blog/wp‐content/uploads/2013/02/Post‐it1.png
Beispiel für das Prinzip der Umstände und Zufälle:Die Post‐It Story
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Prinzip der Vereinbarungen und Partnerschaften
Patchwork Quilt – Form Partnerships
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© Faschingbauer, Mauer (2014)
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Effectuation als Prozess