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Economic Overview of the Harrogate District
February 2015
Informing the district’s Economy Action Plan 2015-2020
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The Harrogate district economy in numbers…
• Estimated 13,500 businesses
• 8,370 VAT registered enterprises
• 9,680 business units
• 95,000 jobs in total = 68,000 full time equivalent (FTE)
• £3.85 billion gross value added (GVA) in 2015
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Residents of the Harrogate district…• 158,000 resident population
• The population of the district is projected to increase by 10,498 over 2012–2037, a 6.6% increase.
• In 2014, 34,500 (22%) of the district’s residents are over 65 years of age.
• Populations of main town settlements: Harrogate: 73,000, Ripon: 16,000, Knaresborough: 15,000, Boroughbridge: 3,200, Pateley Bridge: 2,700
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Population Pyramid (2012)(Source: ONS)
0- 4 5- 9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
Age Class
0- 4 5- 9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
Age Class
Harrogate District England
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Population Pyramid (2037)(Source: ONS)
Harrogate District England
0- 4 5- 9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
Age Class
0- 4 5- 9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
Age Class
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The Harrogate District as a Visitor Destination
• A vibrant tourism offer and growing international profile following a successful Grand Départ!
• 5.4 million visitors a year (4.7 million day trippers).
• Visitors spend circa £300 million and support 7,500 jobs.
• 500 accommodation providers with over 15,000 bed spaces.
• Over 135 restaurants.
• A world class conference centre that attracted 230,000 people in 2013/14.
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• An Entrepreneurial District – the highest business start-up rate in the region…
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Business Start-Up Rate (per 10,000 head of population) (2008 – 2014)
(Source: Banksearch Consultancy)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Harrogate District Leeds City Region
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• High employment rate – lowest Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant rate on record…
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Job Seekers Allowance Claimants (% working age population) (January 2015)
(Source: Department for Work and Pensions)
Yorks
hire an
d Humber
Scarb
orough
Great B
ritain
Selby
Ryedale
North Yo
rkshire
Craven
Hamblet
on
Richmondsh
ire
Harroga
te Dist
rict
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0% 2.8%2.4%
2.0%
1.5%1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9%
0.5% 0.5%
Chart Title
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• Surplus of Jobs – 19,500 people travel into the Harrogate district on a workday from neighbouring local authorities, whilst 18,600 leave the district. Only Leeds sees more people arriving from the Harrogate district on a workday.
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Travel to Work Flows (2011)(Source: ONS Census)
Ryedale
HambletonRichmondshire
Craven
BradfordLeeds
Selby
York
Scarborough
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• Resident earnings - higher than average.
• Workplace earnings - lower than average.
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Average Full-Time Gross Weekly Pay: By Residence and Workplace (2014)
(Source: ONS)
Residence Workplace Residence Workplace Residence WorkplaceHarrogate District Yorkshire & Humber Great Britain
£400.00
£420.00
£440.00
£460.00
£480.00
£500.00
£520.00
£540.00
£486.20
£447.60
£479.00 £479.10
£520.80 £520.20
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• A high proportion of part-time jobs – driven by a large number of jobs in the service sector – particularly food, accommodation, retail and residential care.
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Full/Part Time Jobs (2013)(Source: ONS)
Harrogate Yorkshire and The Humber UK0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
58.5%66.5% 67.2%
41.5%33.5% 32.8%
Full-time Part-time
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• Economic Character: in terms of GVA and/or FTE, the following sectors are prominent in the district when compared to the Leeds City Region, Yorkshire and Humber and UK averages:
• Wholesale, • Professional Services, • Retail, • Accommodation & Food Services,• Media activities, • Agriculture, • Residential Care.
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FTE (Jobs) and GVA (£) by Sector (2015)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)
UtilitiesCivil Engineering
Construction of BuildingsReal Estate
Other Private ServicesComputing & Information ServicesSpecialised Construction Activities
Public Administration & DefenceRecreation
Agriculture, Forestry & FishingFinance
Administrative & Supportive Service ActivitiesLand Transport, Storage & PostResidential Care & Social Work
Health Media ActivitiesManufacturing
Professional ServicesEducation
RetailWholesale
Accomodation, Catering and Recreation
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
GVA (£100,000s)
FTE
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• High cost of living – high and rising house prices and a costly private rental market…
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Average House Price (April-June 2013)(Source: BBC)
Harrogate District North Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber£0
£50,000
£100,000
£150,000
£200,000
£250,000
£300,000
£259,010
£212,589
£157,594
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• A geographical imbalance in GVA – Harrogate town accounts for nearly two thirds (59%) of GVA but has less than half (46%) of the resident population
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Share of GVA (£) in the Harrogate District (2014)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)
£2.2 billion 59%
£1.5 billion 41%
Harrogate Town The rest of the district
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• Size of Business Units - smaller than average offices and industrial units…
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125145165185205225245265285305325
Harrogate District North Yorkshire England
Average Floorspace: Industrial Units (Sq Metres) (2000-2012)
(Source: Valuation Office Agency)
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Harrogate District North Yorkshire England
Average Floorspace: Office Units (Sq Metres) (2000-2012)
(Source: Valuation Office Agency)
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Percentage of Harrogate Business Units that are ‘Medium’ or ‘Large’ (2013)
(Source: ONS - Inter Departmental Business Register)
Wak
efield
Leed
s
Bradford
Leed
s City
Region
Yorks
hire &
HumberYo
rk
Barnsle
y
Kirklee
s
Engla
nd
Calderd
aleSe
lby
Harroga
te
Craven
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%5.3%
4.9%4.4%
4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6%3.4% 3.2%
2.7% 2.5%1.9%
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• The district’s economy is forecasted to grow by £325 million in GVA (8.4%) and create approximately 2,150 full-time equivalent jobs from 2015 to 2020.
• However, growth in GVA has been forecast at a slower pace than the wider Leeds City Region (11.2%), Yorkshire and Humber (10.8%) and the UK (12.6%). The district’s annual GVA is expected to reach its pre-recession peak in 2019 (compared with 2015 across the LCR).
• Wholesale, finance, professional services and media activities will deliver the most growth GVA.
• Accommodation, food services, media activities and wholesale will deliver the most growth in FTE Jobs.
Forecasts for 2015-2020
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GVA (£) Versus FTE (Jobs) (2015-2020)(Source: Regional Econometric Model)
Wholesale
Accomodation, C
atering &
Recreation
Media Activities
Finance
Specialise
d Constructi
on Activities
Computing & In
formation Service
sRetail
Professi
onal Service
s
Constructi
on of Build
ings
Administrative &
Supportive Service
Activities
Civil Engineerin
g
Real Esta
te £-
£10,000,000.00
£20,000,000.00
£30,000,000.00
£40,000,000.00
£50,000,000.00
£60,000,000.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
GVAFTE