E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
WEEK OF 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1
QUEST IO N #1: PER SO NA L F INA NCES – CUR R ENT CO NDIT IO N
We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
QUEST IO N #2: PER SO NA L F INA NCES – 12 MO NT H EX PECT A T IO NS
Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?
QUEST IO N #3: BUSINESS CO NDIT IO NS – 12 MO NT H EX PECT A T IO NS
Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
QUEST IO N #4: BUSINESS CO NDIT IO NS – 5 YEA R EX PECT A T IO NS
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?
QUEST IO N #5: CUR R ENT BUYING CO NDIT IO NS
About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
M O N T H LY: U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N
The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.
D A I LY: M O R N I N G C O N S U LT
The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.
M E T H O D O L O G Y
Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015
WHY WE CR EA T ED MO R NING CO NSULT ECO NO MIC INT ELLIGENCE
Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements
Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices
1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time
C O N S U M E R I N D I C E SIndex of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)
I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S
Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions
M E T H O D O L O G Y
6789
10
142740
5356596265
69
Goods-Producing Industries (Weekly ICS)Goods-Producing Industries (Monthly ICS)
Consumer and Investor Confidence
1112
13
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y TA K EAWAYS(Week of 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
• No Boost to Consumer Confidence Following U.S. - China Agreement – Consumers’ net reaction to last week’s economic news was moderately positive across most demographic groups. Despite daily consumer confidence falling on Thursday and Friday following the Wednesday signing ceremony, upbeat manufacturing and housing data drove consumer confidence higher over the weekend. Morning Consult’s weekly Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) increased to 113.9 for the week ending Jan. 19. (Slides 7 and 9)
• Farmers Grow More Skeptical – China’s commitment to purchase $32 billion of U.S. agriculture products fell flat, as agriculture confidence declined for the fourth straight week. January’s monthly reading will mark the first month-over-month decrease since the height of the trade wars in August 2019. The fall in confidence in the agriculture sector is in contrast to the rising confidence from the general population and workers in manufacturing and construction. In short, the decrease in agriculture confidence reflects industry-specific conditions. (Slides 11 and 12)
• Investors Return to Reality – Beginning in early December, the rate of year-over-year growth in the S&P 500 outpaced consumer confidence gains. While investors and consumers view the economy differently, the long-term prospects for corporate profitability depend on the strength of consumers. Investors and consumers currently share positive economic outlooks, boding well for continued growth in consumer spending and corporate profits. (Slide 13)
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
W E E K LY DA S H B OA R D(Week of 01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend
ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 113.9 ↑ 1.1 Elevated Increasing
ICE (Future Expectations) 114.5 ↑ 1.3 Stable Increasing
ICC (Current Conditions) 113.1 ↑ 0.8 Elevated Increasing
Personal Finances: Current Conditions 104.8 ↑ 1.1 Elevated Increasing
Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 130.1 ↑ 0.5 Stable Increasing
Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 113.7 ↑ 2.4 Stable Decreasing
Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 99.5 ↑ 0.9 Elevated Increasing
Current Buying Conditions 121.3 ↑ 0.5 Stable Decreasing
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years
1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends
12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins
8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods
5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.
trade war begins
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-1 8 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-1 9 Dec-19 Jan-20
Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Jan 19, 2020)
5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods
10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years
3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins
8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts
11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert
10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China
8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods
1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends
2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)
Mor
ning
Con
sult
Inde
x (O
nlin
e)
Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly
7,500/day 210,000/month
University of Michigan Monthly
600/month
Michigan Index (Phone)
Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.
12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins
01/02/20:US kills Iranian general
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)
110.3
111.5
111.1110.6
111.4
111.5
112.7
111.4
113.2
112
111.4
112.9
111.2
112.3
112.3112.2
112
112.8112.8
112.2111.4111.1
111.6
112.8
111.8
112.8112.2
111.5
113.3113.9
113
112.8113.4
114
113.9114.7
115.2
113.9115 114.5
115.1115.9
114.7
114.9
113.4112.4
112.1111.6
112.7
113.8113.5
113.3
114.3
113.4
114.6
113.9
112.2
114.1114.8
106
109
113
117
94
96
100
102
11/22/1
9
11/25/1
9
11/28/1
9
12/01/1
9
12/04/1
9
12/07/1
9
12/10/1
9
12/13/1
9
12/16/1
9
12/19/1
9
12/22/1
9
12/25/1
9
12/28/1
9
12/31/1
9
01/03/2
0
01/06/2
0
01/09/2
0
01/12/2
0
01/15/2
0
01/18/2
0
Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)
University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)
12/6/19: November jobs report beats expectations
12/13/19: US and China announce completion of “Phase One” trade deal
12/20/19: November household income gains beat expectations
01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”
01/08/20: Iran counterstrikes bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops
01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade dealM
orni
ng C
onsu
lt In
dex
(Onl
ine)
Michigan Index (Phone)
9
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
CO N S U M E R I N D I C ES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)
100
105
110
115
120
Feb-2019
Mar-2019
Apr-2019
May-2019
Jun-2019
Jul-2019
Aug-2019
Sep-2019
Oct-2019
Nov-2019
Dec-2019
Jan-2020
ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)
10
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Monthly Confidence Across Goods-Producing IndustriesM
orni
ng C
onsu
lt M
onth
ly IC
S
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
11/1/18 12/1/18 1/1/19 2/1/19 3/1/19 4/1/19 5/1/19 6/1/19 7/1/19 8/1/19 9/1/19 10/1/19 11/1/19 12/1/19 1/1/20
Adults Agriculture Construct ion Manufacturing
11
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Weekly Confidence Across Goods-Producing Industries
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
9/8/19 9/22/19 10/6/19 10/20/19 11/3/19 11/17/19 12/1/19 12/15/19 12/29/19 1/12/20
Adults Agriculture Construct ion Manufacturing
Mor
ning
Con
sult
Wee
kly
ICS
12
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Consumer and Investor Confidence
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
95
100
105
110
115
120
1/2/18
2/2/18
3/2/18
4/2/18
5/2/18
6/2/18
7/2/18
8/2/18
9/2/18
10/2/18
11/2/18
12/2/18
1/2/19
2/2/19
3/2/19
4/2/19
5/2/19
6/2/19
7/2/19
8/2/19
9/2/19
10/2/19
11/2/19
12/2/19
1/2/20
Mor
ning
Con
sult
S&P 500 (Change from Year Ago)
Morning Consult Daily ICS
S&P 500
Source: Morning Consult and FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
I N D E X O F CO N S U M E R S E N T I M E N T ( I C S ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
113.9 114.8 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
105.3104.5
106.7
109.4108.6
109.7109.7
110.5
109.5110.3
111110.7 110.7
111111.7
112.6
111.1110.3
110 110 109.9110.4
111.4111
112.3
111.7111.8 111.8
111.7
109.6
107.7
107.3107
107.7108.3
107.7
108.5108.4
108.2 108.4109.1 109.3
110.2110.8
111.3111.8
112 112.1
112.7
114114.8
112.8
113.9
105
110
115
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
0
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 115.2 ↑ 1.5 115.8 108.2
25-34 117.0 ↑ 0.1 119.5 110.4
35-44 117.1 ↑ 1.8 117.1 105.0
45-54 113.1 ↑ 0.9 114.1 103.2
55-64 110.3 ↑ 0.3 113.5 101.0
65+ 111.6 ↑ 1.9 111.6 100.7
Demo: Gender
Male 119.8 ↑ 1.2 119.8 110.5
Female 108.5 ↑ 1.0 110.2 98.9
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 107.4 ↑ 0.4 108.6 99.1
$50K-$100K 120.6 ↑ 1.1 121.1 111.0
$100K+ 127.6 ↑ 3.0 127.6 116.0
$100K-$150K 127.6 ↑ 3.8 127.6 115.4
$150-$200K 127.0 ↑ 1.6 128.6 114.3
$200-$250K 126.4 ↑ 1.6 129.6 110.6
$250K+ 130.5 ↑ 1.1 131.8 115.7
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 113.0 ↑ 0.8 114.2 104.2
Bachelor's Degree 117.1 ↑ 1.5 117.3 106.0
Post-Grad 113.7 ↑ 2.0 113.7 102.5
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 111.3 ↑ 1.2 113.4 98.5
Hispanic 114.3 ↑ 0.7 116.1 105.0
Other 108.8 ↑ 0.5 110.7 102.4
White 114.5 ↑ 1.2 115.1 105.4
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 113.6 ↓ 1.2 116.4 99.9
Financial Activities 126.6 ↓ 1.0 127.6 112.9
Health Care 116.9 ↓ 1.3 119.4 107.1
Information 122.7 ↑ 2.4 122.7 111.2
Leisure and Hospitality 111.3 ↑ 0.6 119.9 98.3
Professional and Business Services 119.8 ↓ 0.4 120.6 107.9
Real Estate and Property 129.2 ↑ 1.1 134.1 114.2
Retail Trade 119.4 ↑ 2.6 119.4 108.1
Transportation 123.1 ↓ 0.6 127.5 112.3
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 119.9 ↓ 2.9 130.8 109.6
Construction 129.1 ↑ 3.6 131.0 118.1
Manufacturing 126.5 ↑ 1.5 127.3 117.0
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 128.3 ↑ 4.4 137.7 108.1
Other 116.5 ↑ 1.8 116.7 108.7
Public Administration 122.3 ↓ 0.2 127.5 97.1
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 125.7 ↑ 2.4 125.7 114.3
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 119.5 ↑ 2.0 120.4 110.2
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 128.1 ↑ 6.0 129.6 109.0
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 132.1 ↓ 0.5 139.0 113.9
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 151.4 ↓ 4.7 157.5 122.5
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 124.3 ↑ 3.8 124.3 114.0
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 122.4 ↑ 1.0 122.4 112.7
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 122.2 ↑ 2.2 125.1 104.5
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 121.1 ↑ 4.7 125.4 111.6
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.8 ↑ 0.6 127.4 111.8
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 125.5 ↑ 6.2 125.7 113.4
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 119.1 ↓ 3.5 123.8 110.3
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 124.6 ↓ 0.6 126.0 108.7
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 117.9 ↑ 1.6 118.2 107.4
Renters 109.5 ↑ 0.4 110.7 101.6
Other 104.9 ↑ 1.2 107.0 97.6
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 124.3 ↑ 3.6 124.3 111.8
Less than $50K 118.3 ↓ 0.1 119.7 109.3
None 108.0 ↑ 0.4 109.6 99.9
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 125.3 ↑ 3.6 125.3 112.6
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 120.3 ↑ 11.9 120.3 92.4
The Wall Street Journal 130.4 ↑ 6.4 132.1 108.6
Fox News Channel 141.4 ↓ 0.2 144.9 127.6
CNN 97.5 ↓ 1.1 105.1 90.4
MSNBC 100.4 ↑ 7.4 102.5 85.2
Twitter 119.1 ↑ 1.3 119.1 108.9
Facebook 115.6 ↑ 1.3 116.3 105.4
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 137.7 ↑ 0.4 138.5 128.2
Liberal 96.2 ↑ 1.1 97.3 87.3
Moderate 108.8 ↑ 2.0 109.2 99.2
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 140.9 ↑ 0.8 141.6 134.5
Disapprove 93.0 ↑ 0.9 94.4 84.1
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 143.5 ↑ 1.3 143.5 133.8
Democrat Hillary Clinton 92.0 ↑ 1.9 92.6 81.5
Someone Else 102.2 ↑ 2.8 102.6 92.6
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
ICS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value105.0 to 110.2110.2 to 112.2112.2 to 116.3116.3 to 120.7
Districts Value Weekly Change*
52-Week High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 105.0 ↑ 1.1 107.0 97.6
New York (2) 110.0 ↓ 1.6 112.0 103.1
Philadelphia (3) 109.6 ↑ 0.3 113.0 101.2
Cleveland (4) 112.9 ↑ 1.5 112.9 103.5
Richmond (5) 117.2 ↑ 2.0 117.6 106.7
Atlanta (6) 120.7 ↑ 2.0 120.9 110.2
Chicago (7) 111.6 ↑ 0.7 113.4 102.3
St. Louis (8) 116.0 ↓ 0.3 117.8 106.0
Minneapolis (9) 110.2 ↑ 0.1 114.4 102.7
Kansas City (10) 113.0 ↑ 1.6 113.0 104.2
Dallas (11) 117.8 ↓ 0.6 119.8 108.2
San Francisco (12) 110.9 ↑ 1.4 112.0 101.3
26
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
I N D E X O F CO N S U M E R E X P EC TAT I O N S ( I C E ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
114.5 115.3 104.4(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
105
104.4
106.7
110
108.8
109.7109.8
110.5
109.4110.2
110.9
110.2 110.4
110.9112
113.3
111.3110.3
109.9
110.1
109.7
110.4
111.4111
112.8112 112 112
111.6
109.6
107106.2 106.3
107.1107.8
107.1
108.1108.1
108.2108.1
109.4 109.6
111111.2
111.7112
112.6113
113.5
114.2
115.3
113.2
114.5
105
110
115
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
0
28
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 116.9 ↑ 1.6 117.6 108.4
25-34 119.8 ↓ 0.3 122.4 112.3
35-44 119.8 ↑ 2.2 119.8 106.6
45-54 114.3 ↑ 1.2 116.0 104.3
55-64 109.3 ↑ 0.6 112.7 99.4
65+ 108.6 ↑ 2.2 108.6 97.3
Demo: Gender
Male 120.6 ↑ 1.2 120.6 110.3
Female 108.7 ↑ 1.4 110.8 98.7
29
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 109.4 ↑ 0.6 110.7 100.4
$50K-$100K 120.0 ↑ 1.4 120.3 109.2
$100K+ 124.5 ↑ 3.4 124.5 110.4
$100K-$150K 124.9 ↑ 4.0 124.9 110.3
$150-$200K 123.6 ↑ 2.6 124.7 108.1
$200-$250K 122.0 ↑ 4.3 124.8 103.4
$250K+ 125.2 ↓ 0.5 128.6 108.9
30
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 114.7 ↑ 0.9 115.9 105.3
Bachelor's Degree 115.9 ↑ 2.2 115.9 103.4
Post-Grad 110.5 ↑ 2.1 110.8 97.8
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 113.7 ↑ 2.2 115.8 98.3
Hispanic 115.8 ↑ 0.7 118.1 106.0
Other 109.0 ↑ 0.4 111.3 100.2
White 114.6 ↑ 1.3 115.2 105.1
31
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 111.4 ↓ 1.6 115.1 97.7
Financial Activities 125.8 ↓ 1.0 126.8 110.7
Health Care 116.4 ↓ 1.5 120.7 105.5
Information 122.1 ↑ 3.5 122.1 108.6
Leisure and Hospitality 110.0 ↓ 2.2 122.6 95.5
Professional and Business Services 118.5 ↓ 0.1 119.0 104.3
Real Estate and Property 130.5 ↑ 2.1 134.4 112.4
Retail Trade 121.0 ↑ 2.1 121.0 108.2
Transportation 124.5 ↓ 1.6 130.8 112.8
32
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 122.8 ↓ 3.8 135.8 108.7
Construction 131.2 ↑ 2.1 133.9 119.6
Manufacturing 127.5 ↑ 1.5 127.7 115.3
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 127.4 ↑ 4.4 134.1 106.2
Other 117.0 ↑ 1.6 117.0 107.3
Public Administration 125.0 ↑ 2.9 129.8 96.1
33
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 126.9 ↑ 2.1 126.9 114.3
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 121.2 ↑ 1.9 122.7 112.0
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 127.6 ↑ 6.2 129.0 105.7
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 131.4 ↓ 1.4 139.1 114.2
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 152.8 ↓ 6.1 158.8 121.9
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 125.3 ↑ 3.5 125.7 113.2
34
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 123.0 0.0 123.5 112.1
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 125.4 ↑ 2.0 127.4 107.9
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 124.3 ↑ 4.4 128.5 110.6
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.8 ↓ 2.3 128.9 111.2
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 127.0 ↑ 6.5 128.8 111.6
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 117.8 ↓ 5.4 125.9 108.5
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 124.0 ↓ 0.9 127.0 106.3
35
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 117.1 ↑ 1.8 117.5 106.2
Renters 111.5 ↑ 0.5 112.7 102.7
Other 108.5 ↑ 1.5 110.6 100.2
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 120.9 ↑ 4.2 120.9 107.1
Less than $50K 119.2 ↓ 0.1 120.6 108.9
None 110.3 ↑ 0.5 112.0 101.5
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 121.8 ↑ 4.1 121.8 107.5
36
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 117.6 ↑ 14.2 117.6 86.8
The Wall Street Journal 129.7 ↑ 6.6 130.4 103.7
Fox News Channel 144.1 ↑ 1.9 146.4 130.0
CNN 94.7 ↓ 0.7 101.7 84.8
MSNBC 96.3 ↑ 8.9 98.1 79.0
Twitter 119.7 ↑ 1.9 119.7 107.7
Facebook 116.7 ↑ 1.4 117.5 105.8
37
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 140.3 ↑ 0.2 141.3 130.9
Liberal 93.7 ↑ 1.4 94.7 83.1
Moderate 109.1 ↑ 2.8 109.1 98.6
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 144.8 ↑ 0.5 145.5 139.3
Disapprove 90.6 ↑ 1.5 91.8 80.3
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 146.5 ↑ 1.6 146.5 137.3
Democrat Hillary Clinton 88.4 ↑ 2.6 88.8 76.3
Someone Else 100.0 ↑ 2.9 101.6 90.3
38
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
ICE
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value103.1 to 110.3110.3 to 112.2112.2 to 117.3117.3 to 122.4
Districts Value Weekly Change*
52-Week High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 103.1 ↑ 0.1 105.7 95.5
New York (2) 110.5 0.0 112.2 102.3
Philadelphia (3) 109.8 ↑ 0.9 112.4 100.1
Cleveland (4) 113.0 ↑ 1.9 113.0 102.9
Richmond (5) 118.3 ↑ 2.9 118.5 106.4
Atlanta (6) 122.4 ↑ 2.3 122.4 111.5
Chicago (7) 110.8 ↑ 0.1 113.6 101.3
St. Louis (8) 117.0 ↓ 0.9 118.7 106.4
Minneapolis (9) 109.3 ↓ 1.4 114.0 99.8
Kansas City (10) 114.1 ↑ 1.7 114.1 104.8
Dallas (11) 119.8 ↑ 0.2 121.8 109.7
San Francisco (12) 111.4 ↑ 1.5 112.0 100.8
39
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
I N D E X O F C U R R E N T CO N D I T I O N S ( I C C ) OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
113.1 114.0 104.5(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
105.8
104.5
106.6
108.5108.4
109.7109.7
110.4
109.8110.3
111.1111.4
111.1111.1
111.2111.6
110.8110.2
110.1109.8
110.2110.4
111.2 111111.6
111.2 111.4111.6 111.9
109.7
108.8109
108108.7
109.1
108.6
109.2
108.8108.2
108.9
108.7108.8 109.1
110.3 110.6
111.6 111.2
110.8
111.4
113.7 114
112.2113.1
102
105
108
111
114
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
0
41
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 112.7 ↑ 1.3 114.6 107.4
25-34 112.7 ↑ 0.7 115.2 107.4
35-44 113.1 ↑ 1.3 113.1 102.5
45-54 111.3 ↑ 0.4 113.1 101.5
55-64 111.9 ↓ 0.3 114.6 103.5
65+ 116.0 ↑ 1.4 116.3 105.4
Demo: Gender
Male 118.4 ↑ 1.2 118.9 110.3
Female 108.0 ↑ 0.5 109.4 99.2
42
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 104.4 ↑ 0.2 105.4 97.1
$50K-$100K 121.5 ↑ 0.8 122.3 113.0
$100K+ 132.3 ↑ 2.4 132.3 122.2
$100K-$150K 131.5 ↑ 3.6 131.5 121.1
$150-$200K 132.0 0.0 136.3 121.1
$200-$250K 132.9 ↓ 2.5 136.9 121.5
$250K+ 138.6 ↑ 3.5 138.9 124.1
43
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 110.5 ↑ 0.7 111.6 102.7
Bachelor's Degree 118.9 ↑ 0.6 119.8 108.8
Post-Grad 118.4 ↑ 1.7 118.4 108.3
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 107.6 ↓ 0.4 109.9 98.8
Hispanic 112.1 ↑ 0.7 114.1 103.6
Other 108.5 ↑ 0.7 111.1 102.1
White 114.4 ↑ 1.0 114.9 105.7
44
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 116.9 ↓ 0.6 118.5 103.1
Financial Activities 127.8 ↓ 0.9 128.8 115.2
Health Care 117.6 ↓ 0.9 118.5 109.4
Information 123.6 ↑ 0.8 124.2 113.7
Leisure and Hospitality 113.1 ↑ 4.8 117.6 102.4
Professional and Business Services 121.7 ↓ 0.9 123.6 108.6
Real Estate and Property 127.3 ↓ 0.5 133.8 115.7
Retail Trade 116.9 ↑ 3.4 118.1 106.9
Transportation 120.8 ↑ 0.9 123.2 110.3
45
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 115.5 ↓ 1.5 127.9 104.8
Construction 126.1 ↑ 5.7 127.5 115.7
Manufacturing 125.1 ↑ 1.6 127.1 118.1
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 129.8 ↑ 4.4 143.0 102.9
Other 115.8 ↑ 2.1 116.2 108.6
Public Administration 118.3 ↓ 4.7 130.8 96.5
46
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 123.9 ↑ 2.9 123.9 112.2
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 117.0 ↑ 2.1 117.1 106.7
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 128.8 ↑ 5.6 134.0 113.8
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 133.2 ↑ 0.8 145.2 113.4
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 149.3 ↓ 2.7 159.5 123.5
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 122.8 ↑ 4.2 123.9 113.1
47
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 121.6 ↑ 2.5 121.6 113.7
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 117.4 ↑ 2.5 121.7 99.2
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 116.2 ↑ 5.2 123.8 107.9
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.8 ↑ 4.8 128.2 111.9
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 123.2 ↑ 5.6 125.9 113.7
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 121.2 ↓ 0.6 125.4 113.1
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 125.6 ↓ 0.1 125.7 112.4
48
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 119.1 ↑ 1.2 119.5 109.2
Renters 106.3 ↑ 0.2 107.7 99.9
Other 99.4 ↑ 0.8 101.6 93.7
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 129.3 ↑ 2.8 129.3 117.3
Less than $50K 116.9 ↓ 0.1 118.3 110.0
None 104.6 ↑ 0.2 106.0 97.4
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 130.6 ↑ 2.7 130.6 118.6
49
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 124.5 ↑ 8.4 124.5 98.8
The Wall Street Journal 131.4 ↑ 6.2 140.3 114.5
Fox News Channel 137.4 ↓ 3.2 142.6 124.0
CNN 101.8 ↓ 1.7 110.2 96.5
MSNBC 106.5 ↑ 5.2 109.1 92.3
Twitter 118.3 ↑ 0.4 119.3 109.9
Facebook 113.9 ↑ 1.1 114.5 104.8
50
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 133.9 ↑ 0.8 134.3 124.3
Liberal 100.1 ↑ 0.6 101.3 92.8
Moderate 108.3 ↑ 0.9 109.7 100.2
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 135.1 ↑ 1.2 135.6 127.2
Disapprove 96.5 0.0 98.2 89.7
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 138.9 ↑ 0.9 139.1 128.5
Democrat Hillary Clinton 97.6 ↑ 1.0 98.6 89.0
Someone Else 105.4 ↑ 2.8 105.9 96.1
51
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
F E D D I ST R I C TS(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
ICC
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value107.9 to 110.8110.8 to 112.7112.7 to 114.8114.8 to 118.2
Districts Value Weekly Change*
52-Week High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 107.9 ↑ 2.6 109.5 100.9
New York (2) 109.2 ↓ 3.9 113.1 104.1
Philadelphia (3) 109.2 ↓ 0.5 113.9 101.9
Cleveland (4) 112.7 ↑ 0.9 113.3 104.3
Richmond (5) 115.5 ↑ 0.6 116.4 107.3
Atlanta (6) 118.2 ↑ 1.6 118.6 108.2
Chicago (7) 112.8 ↑ 1.6 113.1 103.8
St. Louis (8) 114.6 ↑ 0.5 116.5 103.8
Minneapolis (9) 111.5 ↑ 2.4 114.9 104.3
Kansas City (10) 111.2 ↑ 1.5 112.0 102.6
Dallas (11) 114.9 ↓ 1.7 116.8 106.0
San Francisco (12) 110.3 ↑ 1.3 112.1 102.1
52
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
P E RS O N A L F I N A N C ES : C U R R E N T CO N D I T I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
104.8 105.4 97.6(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
98.9
97.6
98.9
100.2100
101.5
101.1
102.3
101.6 102
102.7
103.7
102.7103 103
103.3
102.7102.6
101.9 101.8102.5
102.6103.3
102.6
103.4
103103.2
103.7104.2
101.6
100.9
101.4
100
101.2
101.3
100.5
101.3100.8
100 100.699.8 99.7
99.8
101.3 100.6
102.1
101.2
101
101.8
104.9
105.4
103.7
104.8
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
107.5
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
054
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 107.9 ↑ 2.3 111.7 102.5
25-34 107.3 ↑ 1.3 109.5 101.6
35-44 104.8 ↑ 0.9 105.7 97.3
45-54 102.2 ↑ 0.2 104.3 93.9
55-64 102.1 0.0 103.5 94.1
65+ 105.3 ↑ 2.0 105.4 93.3
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 93.7 ↑ 0.5 94.3 88.0
$50K-$100K 115.7 ↑ 1.4 115.8 108.1
$100K+ 129.1 ↑ 1.0 129.1 120.7
$100K-$150K 127.2 ↑ 2.1 127.2 119.2
$150-$200K 130.1 ↓ 0.8 132.3 118.9
$200-$250K 134.4 ↓ 4.2 138.6 118.8
$250K+ 136.5 ↑ 0.3 139.6 123.1
55
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
P E RS O N A L F I N A N C ES : 1 2 M O N T H E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
130.1 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
127.4
126.5
127.2
128.9
127.7
128
127.8
128127.7
128.9
129.3
129.2
128.3
129.1
130.2130.5
128.8128.7
127.9128.6
127.9
126.9
128.4
128.2
129.9
128.8 128.8
128.5 128.6
127.8126.8
126.1
125.8 125.6
125.8
125.6
126.6
126.2
126.7
126.3
127.8127.4
128.4 128.7
129
127.9
128.8
129.5 129.5
129.4
130.8
129.6
130.1
125.0
127.5
130.0
132.5
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
057
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 143.1 ↑ 1.0 144.6 136.3
25-34 145.1 ↓ 2.2 149.3 143.3
35-44 140.8 ↑ 0.6 141.0 134.1
45-54 130.0 ↓ 0.3 131.6 124.0
55-64 118.8 ↑ 1.0 121.9 113.2
65+ 110.5 ↑ 2.6 110.5 102.3
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 126.4 0.0 127.9 122.5
$50K-$100K 134.7 ↑ 1.6 134.7 127.8
$100K+ 136.3 ↓ 0.1 138.1 129.9
$100K-$150K 136.1 ↑ 0.3 138.1 130.0
$150-$200K 137.9 ↑ 0.9 142.0 128.9
$200-$250K 137.6 ↑ 3.2 142.0 127.3
$250K+ 132.1 ↓ 8.8 141.2 126.6
58
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
B U S I N ES S CO N D I T I O N S : 1 2 M O N T H E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
113.7 114.5 98.8(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
98.998.8
102.3
106.7
105.5
106.9
107.1
108.4
107108
109
107.8
108.7109.2
110.2
112.5
109.6
107.4107.5
107.1 107
109.1
109.9109.4
110.5110.7 110.9
111.3
109.8
106.8
103.1
101.9102.4
103.7104.8
104.1
105.2105.2
104.8105.4
106.5107.5
108.9 109.3
110.2 110.9111.3
112113.1
114114.5
111.3
113.7
100
105
110
115
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
060
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 111.8 ↑ 2.4 113.3 101.1
25-34 113.9 ↑ 2.1 116.0 101.8
35-44 115.0 ↑ 3.3 115.0 96.5
45-54 113.3 ↑ 3.2 114.4 98.7
55-64 111.7 ↑ 1.6 115.2 96.1
65+ 115.8 ↑ 2.1 115.8 98.8
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 108.4 ↑ 1.8 110.1 95.2
$50K-$100K 119.1 ↑ 1.9 119.2 103.5
$100K+ 125.1 ↑ 5.9 125.1 104.3
$100K-$150K 125.9 ↑ 7.2 125.9 103.7
$150-$200K 122.6 ↑ 3.5 126.0 101.2
$200-$250K 121.3 ↑ 4.2 124.0 94.7
$250K+ 129.0 ↑ 3.4 130.7 102.3
61
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
B U S I N ES S CO N D I T I O N S : 5 Y EA R E X P EC TAT I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
99.5 100.6 88.0(12/30/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
88.8
88
90.6
94.4
93.294.1
94.395.1
93.4
93.894.4
93.7 94.194.5
95.8
96.9
95.6
94.894.4
94.5
94.3
95.2
96
95.3
97.9
96.7
96.4 96.396.3
94.1
91
90.6 90.8
91.992.7
91.792.4
92.993.1
92.6
93.893.9
95.695.6
95.997.2
97.797.4
97.9
99.2
100.6
98.6
99.5
90
95
100
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
063
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 95.9 ↑ 1.6 97.4 87.2
25-34 100.5 ↓ 0.7 102.5 89.4
35-44 103.5 ↑ 2.7 103.5 87.0
45-54 99.7 ↑ 0.7 102.1 87.6
55-64 97.3 ↓ 0.7 101.0 86.2
65+ 99.5 ↑ 1.9 100.0 89.7
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 93.3 ↑ 0.1 95.2 82.9
$50K-$100K 106.2 ↑ 0.8 106.9 94.3
$100K+ 112.0 ↑ 4.2 112.0 96.2
$100K-$150K 112.7 ↑ 4.4 112.7 96.4
$150-$200K 110.4 ↑ 3.4 110.7 92.1
$200-$250K 107.3 ↑ 5.5 114.1 84.6
$250K+ 114.4 ↑ 3.8 116.3 95.5
64
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
C U R R E N T B U Y I N G CO N D I T I O N S OV E R T I M E(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
121.3 122.5 111.5(12/23/2019) (01/21/2019)(As of 01/19/2020)
112.7
111.5
114.2
116.7 116.7
118118.4118.5
117.9118.6
119.4119.2
119.5
119.3
119.5 120
118.8
117.8
118.3
117.8 118118.3
119.2119.3
119.9
119.4
119.5
119.5119.5
117.8
116.8
116.6116 116.1
116.9116.7
117.1 116.7
116.4117.1
117.5117.9
118.4
119.3
120.7121 121.2
120.6
121
122.5 122.5
120.8
121.3
110
115
120
125
02/01/1
9
03/01/1
9
04/01/1
9
05/01/1
9
06/01/1
9
07/01/1
9
08/01/1
9
09/01/1
9
10/01/1
9
11/01/1
9
12/01/1
9
01/01/2
066
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C S(01/13/2020 - 01/19/2020)
CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 117.4 ↑ 0.2 118.6 109.9
25-34 118.2 ↑ 0.2 121.0 110.3
35-44 121.4 ↑ 1.7 121.4 107.7
45-54 120.4 ↑ 0.6 121.9 109.1
55-64 121.7 ↓ 0.5 125.8 112.9
65+ 126.7 ↑ 0.8 127.1 117.4
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 115.0 ↓ 0.2 116.6 106.1
$50K-$100K 127.3 ↑ 0.1 128.9 117.8
$100K+ 135.5 ↑ 3.9 136.2 123.2
$100K-$150K 135.8 ↑ 5.0 135.8 121.7
$150-$200K 134.0 ↑ 0.9 141.1 123.2
$200-$250K 131.4 ↓ 0.9 137.8 120.1
$250K+ 140.8 ↑ 6.6 140.8 121.7
67
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Sampling Method
Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.
Survey Questions
Survey respondents answer the same five questions:
We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?
Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?
Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
Data Processing
The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.
Relative Score and Index Calculations
The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.
Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend
Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.
METHODOLOGY
69
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
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