Download - Draft Tv Commercials
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Draft TV Commercials
Question 1
What do we know?
budget is fixed
budget must be spent on drafts or on airingquality of commercials is uncertain
What can we assume?
any number of drafts can be commissioned
the quality of different drafts is independent (in probability)
What could the results look like?
graph of profit as a function of number of drafts
graph of retained impressions as a function of number of drafts
optimal number of drafts
marginal value of one draft more or less
What informationcan be brought to bear?
distribution of retained impressions for other commercialsWhat can we ask the client?
how variable is the quality of draft commercials?
how accurately can a trial audience determine the ultimate quality of a
commercial (retained impressions)?
does variability in commercial quality vary by product category?
Similarsituations or problems?
sampling from populations with variability
optimal stopping problems
Question 2
Problem statements: In what ways could?
we maximize retained impressions
we maximize profit
we identify a robust strategy.
Question 3
Decisions
number of draft commercials
Objectives
total retained impressions
retained impressions per dollar spent
profit
Constraints
budget
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Question 4
Question 5
Ways to simplify
ignore details of advertising campaign (e.g., media split, frequency of
airings, and so on)
Question 6
Modules
quality of ad chosen from multiple drafts
retained impressions
Question 7
Key relationships
actual and perceived ad quality differ by a random error
Question 8
Parameters
variance of commercial quality
error in perceptions of commercial quality
percentage difference between next day recall and retained impressions
Distribution of
Ad Quality
Retained Impressions/
Dollar
Number of
Drafts
Budget
Cost/Draft Ad
Retained
Impressions