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Update on Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Studies
Dane Goede, Bob Morrison
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Outline
• Lateral Spread– Index cases & nearest neighbors– Cluster analyses
• Production Impact • Time-to-Stability• Swine Health Monitoring Project
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LATERAL SPREAD STUDYNational Pork Board Project
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Two ApproachesIncidence in Neighboring Herds• Index cases in negative
areas identified• Questionnaire
administered to record potential sources of risk to infect neighbors
• Neighbors identified, given similar questionnaires, and monitored for infection
Cluster Analysis• 268 premises
participating• PEDv spread fast in
Oklahoma panhandle• Aerosol? Transportation?
Pests?• Spatial analysis for
pattern of movement
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Progress
• Both retrospective & prospective cohorts
• 22 case farms identified
• 19 of which verbally agreed to participate
• 14 of which have enrolled officially
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Progress
• 5 fully-completed index case & neighbor questionnaire sets
Weeks after index case became infected
% N
egat
ive
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PRODUCTION IMPACT STUDY
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Methods
• Breeding herds undergoing exposure programs
• Baseline production parameters identified– Piglets weaned per week– 26 weeks of data prior to infection– Shewhart control chart
• Time-to-Baseline Production• Loss (piglets/1000 sows)
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Production Impact
Weeks Post-Infection
% B
asel
ine
Pro
duct
ion
N = 18 herds
Avg TTBP = 5.9 wks95% CI = 4.2-7.6
Loss:1688 pigs/1000 sows95% CI = 1077-2299
3.9 wks production95% CI = 2.0-5.8
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TIME-TO-STABILITY STUDY
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Methods
• Breeding herds undergoing exposure programs
• Criteria for Stability– Free of clinical signs– 4 samples PCR negative at weekly intervals
• At least 30 litters from farrowing• 1 swab/swiffer per litter• Pools of 5 litters• Bias sample collection towards any diarrhea and/or
younger sow parity
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Time-to-Stability Progress
• 4 sites enrolled and actively testing
• 1 site has reached stability at 18 wks post-infection
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SWINE HEALTH MONITORING PROJECT & REPORT
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Swine Health Monitoring Project
• What will be the next pathogen to cross the border into the US?
• Infrastructure• VDL release agreement
– Premises ID– Linked to VDL results– Linked to GPS coordinates in National
Repository
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Swine Health Monitoring Report
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Visual History of PED Prevalence
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Most Recent: 9/13/2013
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Thank You!
• Study participants & SHMP supporters
• Dane Goede ([email protected]) to receive report
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Acknowledgments• Funding from
– National Pork Board– Swine Disease Eradication
Center– Leman China scholarship
fund
• Drs. Rossow, Rovira & Tousignant & U of M VDL
• ISU, KSU, SDSU VDLs & NAHLN
• USDA APHIS Centers of Epidemiology & Animal Health
• AASV• Bob Morrison• Peter Davies• Montse Torremorell• U of MN Graduate
Students
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QUESTIONS?