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Disruptive Innovation and Energy
By Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability CUSP, Curtin University
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New understanding of innovation…
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION
• Came from Clayton Christensen at Harvard.
• Innovation came from demand, often before it was cheaper than mainstream options. But it ‘felt cheaper’…it performed for them.
• Eg 3.5 inch discs cf 5.5 inch discs…..Notebooks!
• Exponential growth and system disruption
• Mainstream finds it hard to see innovation as they are looking at supply price…so they ignore it. The ‘Kodak effect’
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Disruptive innovation and energy…
• Phase out of fossil fuels is happening without disrupting GDP
• Solar energy is happening much quicker than most utilities expected.
• Next phase will be solar/batteries/electric transport
• City transport systems are disrupting
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Decoupling GDP and fossil fuels
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American GDP vs Coal Consumption
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American GDP vs Oil Consumption
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Australian GDP vs Coal Consumption
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Australian Coal Consumption
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Australian GDP vs Oil Consumption
Australian GDP
Australian Oil Consumption
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China decouples GDP and coal
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China decouples GDP and oil
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India rapidly decoupling GDP from fossil fuels….
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Solar takes off….
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Ad
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Coal & Gas
Renewables
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Perth solar city 20% of Perth homes 490 MW in 3 years… ‘It is inevitable…’ Minister for Energy
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Next phase solar/batteries/EV’s
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A1 Tariff vs Battery plus Solar PV Cost in SWIS
Solar + battery (AUD$/kwh)
A1 Tariff (AUD$/kwh)
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The holy grail arrives
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JOSH’S HOUSE It’s carbon positive!
PV Offsets
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Tesla
Honda Zero Carbon Home
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Cities reducing oil through less car dependence
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THE USA IS DRIVING LESS
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UrbanDensity(personsperha)
UrbanDensityTrendin23Ci esintheUSA,Australia,CanadaandEurope,1960-2005
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The top 6 most walkable cities in the US have 38% higher GDP.
70% of knowledge economy workers in Boston live in
walkable areas.
Glaeser and Florida…
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USA ANZ CAN EUR ASIA
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDP
(1995USdollars)
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDPin1995(US1995dollars)
Passengercarkilometresper$ofGDPin2005(US1995dollars)
Decoupling car use and GDP
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Car use is now officially recognised in the US to be decoupling from wealth
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Decoupling most of all in the cities with rail investement, eg Washington
DC and Portland
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Shanghai 1990 and 2010
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1990’s - Flirting with the American model…
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Rapidly filled…
So what can be done?
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Shanghai Metro…12 lines, 273 stations, 420km covering 80% of metro area…
Built mostly since 2000; carries 8 million per day
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Global growth now in ELECTRIC rail …
• 82 Chinese cities building metros and high speed rail between cities Shanghai 8m passengers/day
• 51 Indian cities building metros Any city over 1m.
• Middle east cities building rail for first time
Public Transport
Private
Vehicles
B
i
c
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c
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e
s
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NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
RENEWABLES
RENEWABLES
GAS
GAS
COAL
COAL
OIL
OIL
CO2
CO2
GDP
GDP
2050 NOW
Predictions – After the Peak