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DispersalDispersalLandscape Ecology
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DefinitionsDefinitionsDispersal ◦Spreading of individuals away from
others
Migration◦Mass directional movements of large
numbers of species from one location to another.
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Question/CommentsQuestion/Comments
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Do all species disperse?Do all species disperse?Yes…◦Some by choice, some by chance Chance can be influenced by evolution.
E.g. dandelions sees are puffy for a “reason”.
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Dispersal Dispersal Why disperse? ◦Escape immediate environment. Relieve local congestion.
◦Discovery Dispersal 1) Exploring, picking, then settling 2) Exploring, staying.
◦Non-discovery dispersal Matter of change, e.g. seeds.
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Do animal moves Do animal moves randomly? randomly? RandomCorrelated random walkMemory – making a decision.Does it depend on patch type?
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Do animal moves Do animal moves randomly? randomly? Usually no….◦But that is as individuals, do they as
a group?
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Examples – Fire AntsExamples – Fire Ants
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European StarlingEuropean Starling
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How to model this spread? How to model this spread? What do we need to know about
a population? ◦How far they move?◦How fast the population grows?◦Suitable Habitat?
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Integrodifference EquationIntegrodifference Equation
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Types of model?Types of model?Scientific or Statistical?
Analytical or Simulation?
Static or dynamic?
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Modified diffusion Modified diffusion equationequation
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How to model this spread? How to model this spread? Diffusion equation?
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2004 Distribution2004 Distribution
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
020
4060
8010
012
0
Distance to Great Lakes
Freq
uenc
y
2400
Reservoirs in OK and KS in Verdigis River
basin
Lake Mead & Havasu
Inland Lake Distance to Great Inland Lake Distance to Great LakesLakes
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1700
Inland Lake Distance to 1993 Inland Lake Distance to 1993 DistributionDistribution
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dijjii
K
iij DWOAU
1
Number of Boats
Area
Scaling Factor
Distance & coefficient
Gravity Models – Gravity Models – primary spread primary spread from the Great Lakesfrom the Great Lakes
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Types of model?Types of model?Scientific or Statistical?
Analytical or Simulation?
Static or dynamic?
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United States Gravity ModelUnited States Gravity Model
Basic Information - ◦ Based on 210 Watersheds◦ Estimate # of boaters/watershed◦ Sum lake area/watershed
How to parameterize?◦ Boat surveys◦ Local information
Primary Question –◦ How many boaters from areas with zebra
mussels are traveling to western waters?
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From Bossenbroek et al. 2007 Conservation Biology
United States Gravity ModelUnited States Gravity Model
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From Bossenbroek et al. 2007 Conservation Biology
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2007 Distribution2007 Distribution
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Predict the spread of emerald Predict the spread of emerald ash borerash borer
Local DispersalHuman-mediated Dispersal
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Yr 3Yr 2
Modeling Dispersal Modeling Dispersal
Natural Spread
Yr 1
Lin
ear
Dis
tan
ce
Time
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Yr 3Yr
2
Modeling Dispersal
Long-distance spread
Yr 1
Lin
ear
Dis
tan
ce
Time
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Does natural dispersal account for the rapidity with which the emerald ash borer has spread, even at the county scale?
Predict the spread of emerald ash borer
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Diffusion ModelingDiffusion Modeling
€
VF = 4rD
Used a derivation of Skellam’s diffusion equation
€
∂N∂t
= f (N )+D∂ 2N
∂x2+∂ 2N
∂y2
⎡
⎣ ⎢
⎤
⎦ ⎥
2004
2005Can diffusion
explain this rate of
movement?
Toledo
Croskey 2009 - Thesis
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Estimating Diffusion Model Estimating Diffusion Model ParametersParameters VF = velocity of the invasion front◦Observed in Lucas County Ohio 16 – 40 km/year
D = diffusion coefficient◦Reported movement capabilities of EAB 0.8 – 20 km/year
r = intrinsic rate of increase◦ r values for other beetles 0.1 – 9.1
Force the model to fit observations by solving for r and D
€
VF = 4rD
Croskey 2009 - Thesis
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Diffusion Model Alone Diffusion Model Alone Cannot Explain EAB SpreadCannot Explain EAB Spread
When D is estimated (obs = 0.8 – 20 km/year) mean = 802.80 km/year
When r is estimated (obs = 0.1 – 9.0 ): mean = 76.04
Natural dispersal is not responsible for the rate at which the emerald ash borer
has spreadCroskey 2009 - Thesis
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Predict the spread of emerald Predict the spread of emerald ash borerash borer
Develop models for both: ◦Local Dispersal◦Human-mediated Dispersal
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Natural Natural (or local) (or local) Dispersal Dispersal of EAB in of EAB in OhioOhio
Prasad et al. 2010
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Predict the spread of emerald Predict the spread of emerald ash borerash borer
Local Dispersal◦Flight (~2 km/yr)◦Local human spread (~20 km/yr)
Human-mediated dispersal◦Campers moving firewood◦Hitchhikers on cars, trucks, etc. i.e. road networks.
◦Wood products industry
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Predict the spread of emerald ash Predict the spread of emerald ash borer:borer:Human-mediated dispersalHuman-mediated dispersal
dijjii
K
iij DWOAU
1
Campers with Firewood
Bossenbroek & Jerde – in review
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Natural and Human-Mediated Dispersal of EAB in Ohio
Prasad et al. 2010
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Compared model to known Compared model to known distributiondistributionExamined the model predictions to the
patterns of the human factors included. We examined 11 of the major routes from
Detroit, MI, to major cities in Ohio ◦And included one turn only onto an adjoining
highway.◦Then buffered these highways at 1, 2, and 4 km.
Results:◦52% of the known locations of EAB fell within 1
km◦64% fell within 2 km◦81% fell within 4 km
these few roads that represent only 34.7% of the total road length used in the modeling. Prasad et al. 2010.
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This result highlights the importance of the role of major highways that are in a connected road network in spreading the emerald ash borer.