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THE FUTURE OF WORK
Meeting of the OECD Global Parliamentary Network Paris, 12 October 2016
Paolo FalcoLabour Market EconomistEmployment Analysis and Policy DivisionDirectorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
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Megatrends shaping the future of work
Changing:
What jobs will be created
How, where and by whom they are carried out
Technology
Digitalisation
GlobalisationEnvironmental change
Ageing Societies
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Are we facing mass unemployment?
Jobs with high and medium potential for automationPercentage of jobs with 70 % and between 50 % et 70 % of substitutable tasks
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
SVKCZE ITA
DEUAUT
POLNLD
ENG / NIR
Averag
eUSA
ESPNOR
DNKCAN IRL
SWEFRA
JPN
BEL (Fl) FIN EST
KOR05
101520253035404550
Automatable
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Are we facing mass unemployment?
Jobs with high and medium potential for automationPercentage of jobs with 70 % and between 50 % et 70 % of substitutable tasks
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
SVKCZE ITA
DEUAUT
POLNLD
ENG / NIR
Averag
eUSA
ESPNOR
DNKCAN IRL
SWEFRA
JPN
BEL (Fl) FIN EST
KOR05
101520253035404550
Significant change in tasks AutomatableTasks that lower risk of automation:• Presenting• Influencing• Reading books and/or professional
publications• Writing articles• Using programming language• Training others
Tasks that increase risk of automation:• Exchanging information• Selling• Using fingers or handsSource: Arntz et al (2016), Table 3.
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Polarisation in skill demands
Job polarisation in major OECD economies, 2002-14Percentage points changes in employment shares by occupation
Source: OECD estimates based on EU-LFS, Japanese Labour Force Survey, BLS Current Population Survey.
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United StatesEuropean Union Japan
7.2
-0.7
-9.5
3.0
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
5.43.4
-8.9
0.1
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
0.92.7
-4.5
1.0
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
High Medium -non
routine
Medium -routine
Low
p.p
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Greater income, efficiency and flexibility?
The platform economy is coming near you!
Less social protection and greater precarity?
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Greater risk for individuals who
manage their jobs, protection and training?
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The future of work requires a change to how we think about skills
ICT, problem-solving, socio-
emotional skills
New skill sets for new occupations and tasks
Decision-making skills
New forms of employment
Lifelong learning,
Skills recognition,
WBL, adaptability
Training policies for multiple careers
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Do workers have the skills for the new jobs?
Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
Problem-solving skills in Technology-Rich EnvironmentsPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)
Few high-skilled workers
Many workers lacking ICT skills
8
PO
L
IRL
SV
K
ES
T
KO
R
US
A
AU
T
CZE
Ave
rage
BE
L (F
l)
JPN
EN
G /
NIR
DE
U
CA
N
AU
S
DN
K
NO
R
NLD FIN
SW
E
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
(57) (57) (62) (56) (64) (58) (54) (54) (56) (56) (48) (59) (56) (55) (46) (55) (50) (52) (49) (50)
Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3
No ICT skills or only basic skills to carry out simple tasks
More advanced ICT and cognit-ive skills to evaluate problems
and solutions
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Percent of working population participating in job-related education and training during the last year by level of proficiency in literacy
Job-related training – most in need get the least
United States
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Canada Australia Estonia Japan Germany Spain Italy0
20
40
60
80
Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
9Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
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Re-thinking social protection for non-standard work arrangements
Old age, invalidity Health Accidents Unemployment FamilyAustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapanKoreaMexicoTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
No benefitOptional enrolmentDifferent rules from standard workersSame rules as the general scheme
Benefit rules for the self-employed are different from those of standard workers
Source: OECD (2016c), Report on Pension Systems for the Self-Employed in OECD and EU Countries.
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