Download - DER Sub-Group DISASTER & EMERGENCY RESPONSE DER Sub-Group Meeting FLOODS – 2004 Situation Overview
DER Sub-Group
DISASTER & EMERGENCY RESPONSE
DER Sub-Group Meeting
FLOODS – 2004
Situation Overview
DER Sub-Group
A developing emergency
• Main wave of monsoon flooding, started 8 July.• Followed earlier floods in Haor Areas in April that
destroyed 80% of Boro crop.• Jamuna (Brahmaputra Basin in spate at same
time as Surma/Meghna Rivers.• Highest floods for many years (98/88) –
overtopping many embankments, etc. • Long duration (3 weeks) & rising more than once.• Draining from North, & slowly receding in Centre.• But now the standing water is STAGNATING…
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
CURRENT RIVER FLOOD SITUATION
CURRENT RIVER FLOOD SITUATION
DER Sub-Group
Current Flood Situation
• Water has receded in North revealing losses – but farmers face severe seed shortage.
• Water still high in Northeast.
• Rate of drainage depends on upstream situation in India & sea state in the Bay.
• Floods in Centre are expected to continue to recede slowly.
• Could take 2 weeks for total recession.
DER Sub-Group
5 DAY FORECAST5 DAY FORECAST
DER Sub-Group
Weather Forecasts
• This week should be mostly dry, with thunderstorms on Thu-Sat & next Wed.
• More rain expected through to 12 Aug:– 50-65 mm rain across Bangladesh, 02-12 Aug– 65-85 mm rain in Northwest, 07-12 Aug– 35-80 mm rain in Ganges & Brahmaputra Basins
• What happens in these wider catchment areas over Aug is critical.
• One or more further flood peaks are possible before end-Aug.
DER Sub-Group
Worst Case Scenario:
Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood.
Worst Case Scenario:
Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood.
DER Sub-Group
What does it all mean ?
VULNERABILILTY ANALYSISVULNERABILILTY ANALYSIS
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
DER Sub-Group
Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04)
Affected Districts 39 Affected families 6,511,988
Affected Upazila 260 Affected pop. 32,899,082
Affected Unions 2,341 Reported deaths 586
Affected area (km2) 28,572 Livestock deaths 20,638
Shelters Opened 5,037 People sheltered 1,570,640
DER Sub-Group
Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04)
Crop damage (full) 1,424,483 Crop damage (partial)
1,200,384
Houses destroyed 155,142 Houses damaged 3,140,673
Destroyed roads (km)
12,462 Damaged roads 41,223
Destroyed schools/religious
1,225 Damaged schools/religious
23,188
Damaged bridges/culverts
5,313