Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II
August 22, 2012
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Agenda
• Introduction • Review of Demographics and Feasibility Study - Phase I • Scope of Work for Demographics and Feasibility Study - Phase II • Review of Technology Upgrades • Review of updated Demographics and Enrollment information • Review of building utilization analysis • Review of estimated costs for building repairs and maintenance at BWE, MES &
MMS and modifications at Hosack and McKnight • Recommendations for building use and next steps • Questions and Comments
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Work Accomplished to Date – Phase I
• Reviewed existing conditions at BWE, MES and MMS to identify repairs and provided estimated costs
• Developed projected enrollments for next 10 years • Developed options for building utilization • Recommended a Second Phase study to review and refine options
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase II
• Review estimates developed during Phase I • Develop cost estimates for District wide technology upgrades • Investigate options for building utilization • Develop estimates for enclosure of classrooms at Hosack and the
build out of 4 classrooms at McKnight • Review and expand demographics information presented in Phase I • Review impact of projected housing development in the District on
future enrollment • Retained Thomas & Williamson in December 2011
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Mr. Jon Thomas
Thomas & Williamson
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics Analysis
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Demographic Trends Impacting the North Allegheny School District By Chris Briem
Review of Updated Demographics
• Retained Mr. Chris Briem of Univ. of Pittsburgh to review the following demographics information; – Migration Patterns and Trends – Age of population – Project population – Review of new housing and turnover of existing housing
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Outline
• Review of Phase I Demographics Information • Regional and County Population Trends • Population Migration Impacting NASD • Building and Construction • Elementary School Projections
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Annual Net Migration into the Pittsburgh MSA
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Estimated Population Age 25-64 Allegheny County, 2000-2011
640,000
650,000
660,000
670,000
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Southwest Planning Commission Projected Population Growth Allegheny County, 2010 - 2040
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
SPC Projected Population Growth 2010-2040 Allegheny County School Districts
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
CarlyntonSto-Rox
Keystone OaksAllegheny Valley
Penn HillsMcKeesport Area
Wilkinsburg BoroughSteel Valley
Elizabeth ForwardWoodland Hills
RiverviewPittsburgh
Baldwin-WhitehallNorthgate
East AlleghenyNorth Hills
Duquesne CityHighlands
Brentwood BoroughCornell
Bethel ParkUpper Saint ClairSouth Allegheny
Shaler AreaWest Mifflin Area
GatewayMt LebanonClairton City
South ParkPlum Borough
Fort CherryWest Jefferson Hills
Quaker ValleyHampton Township
North AlleghenyChartiers Valley
Moon AreaFox Chapel Area
Deer LakesAvonworth
West AlleghenyMontour
South Fayette TownshipPine-Richland
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Significantly slower rate than 1980 -1990 But greatly outpacing Allegheny County
Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35019
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
11
McCandless
Marshall
Franklin Park
Bradford Woods
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
SPC Population Projections by Municipality
Municipality 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Bradford Woods
1,222 1,242 1,273 1,307 1,354 1,414 1,475
Franklin Park 12,446 13,123 13,887 14,755 15,735 16,795 17,943
McCandless 25,831 25,659 25,732 26,036 26,722 27,466 28,279
Marshall 6,763 7,232 7,755 8,344 8,993 9,693 10,442
District 46262 47,256 48,647 50,442 52,804 55,368 58,139
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Proportion of Public School Enrollment North Allegheny School District
33.5%
74.5%
82.4%
89.1% 91.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nursery school,preschool
Kindergarten Grade 1 to grade 4 Grade 5 to grade 8 Grade 9 to grade 12
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Distribution by Single Year of Age for Children moving into North Hills Communities
9.4% 8.9%
6.3% 6.5%
5.4%
6.6%
4.6% 5.0% 4.8%
4.4%
5.9%
4.7% 4.9% 5.3%
5.0%
5.8% 6.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Conclusions
• Past trends are not particularly good predictor of the future. • NA communities have grown and been consistently stable - while
Allegheny County experienced decline. • Population growth in NA has slowed to just 2.3% from 2000 to 2010 • “Aging-in-place” and slower building have depressed enrollment trends • Short term population gains in NA will be minimal • Significant changes in Pittsburgh region and Allegheny County population
trends. • Long term population gains will follow Allegheny County • Marshall will account for 40% of growth, Franklin Park: 60%, Bradford
Woods: no change and McCandless will decline 4% over the next decade. • North Allegheny SD municipalities remain among the most stable in the
county.
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Enrollment Projections
• Reviewed the Phase 1 enrollment projections • Prepared updated projections with last year’s data • Used the same method – with the following exceptions:
Phase 1 Enrollment Projections:
- Ten-year averages - Birth counts are factored up 12% - One set of retention rates used for all schools - Analyzes Grade K to Grade 1 retention
Phase 2 Enrollment Projections:
- Five-year averages - Birth counts are not factored - Analyzes Birth to Grade 1 retention - 7 unique sets of retention rates used for
elementary – 3 for middle schools
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
1.0694
1.0390
0.9750
1.0256
0.9875 0.9833 1.0147 0.9892 0.9875
+ + + + = 5
0.9925
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Cohort Survival Analysis - How it Works
71 x 0.9925
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Cohort Survival Analysis - Correlating Enrollment to Births
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Cohort Survival Analysis
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
BradfordWoodsFranklin Park
MarshallTwp.McCandlessTwp
District-wide Births per Year
Cohort Survival Analysis
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Enrollment Projections – Middle School Grades
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Enrollment Projections – Middle School Grades
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Enrollment Projections – High School Grades
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Enrollment Projections – District Totals
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Housing Developments
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Why are we looking for options?
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Why are we looking for options?
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options What options were considered?
• Option #1 – Base Option: Consistent Sections per Grade Level (“rounds”) Using PDE Unit Capacities
• Option #1 – Alternate: Consistent Sections per Grade Level (“rounds”) Using NA Unit Capacities
• Option #2 – Base Option: Peebles Closed, PDE Unit Capacities
• Option #2 – Alternate: Peebles Closed, NA Unit Capacities
• Option #3 – Base Option: K-2, 3-5, Princeton Plan, PDE Unit Capacities
• Option #3 – Alternate: K-2, 3-5, Princeton Plan, NA Unit Capacities
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Background
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Option 1 - Existing Configuration
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Option 2 - Closure of Peebles - Recommended
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Princeton Plan
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Building Utilization Options Option #3 – Princeton Plan
Alternate _______
Recommendation
• Option 2 – Closure of Peebles – Adequate Capacity – Lower Operating Costs – Building
• Wood Construction • Less Developable Site • Access • Southern McCandless and 1 mile from Hosack
Recommendation
• Why maintain Bradford Woods Elementary? – Maintenance and repair costs are significantly lower
that the original estimates. – Located adjacent to the growth area of the District. – Modern construction – steel framing
• Why maintain Hosack Elementary? – Modern construction – steel framing – Developable site – Good site access – Minimal cost to enclose open classrooms - $134,800
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Building Maintenance & Repairs
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
North Allegheny School District - Demographics and Feasibility Study Phase 2
Demographics
Enrollment Projections
Building Utilization
Maintenance & Repairs
Technology Upgrades
Proposed School Closure Timeline
• Set the date for the Public Hearing in mid-December 2012
• Advertise for Public Hearing in early January 2013
• Hold Public Hearing 15 days after advertisement – Late January 2013
• Formal Board Action for School Closure – Late April 2013
• Closure effective 2013/2014 School Year
Questions and Comments