Download - Decision Science for Marine Spatial Planning
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Steve Gaines
University of California, Santa Barbara
Decision Science for Marine Spatial Planning
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Functional Connections Play Key RoleIn Ecosystem Dynamics
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Human Uses Are no Exception
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Fisheries
Wave energy AquacultureWind energy
LNG Desalination MPAs
Coastal propertyRecreation
Shipping
How do we MakeRational Decisions?
Chris Costello, Sarah Lester, Ben Halpern, Sarah Anderson, Steve Katz, Kristin Carden, Phil Levin
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MSP is about Tradeoffs
• Multiple co-occurring activities is the norm
• Activities interact to affect ecosystem services
• Ignoring interactions creates unanticipated consequences and potential conflicts
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Analysis of Tradeoffs Must Be:
Transparent
Explicit
Flexible
Useful to managers and stakeholders
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Ecosystem Service Tradeoff Analysis
• Developed from basic economic decision theory
• Visualizes relationship between 2 or more services
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
Potentially interacting services
e.g., lingcod yield, shoreline protection, aesthetic value, aquaculture
e.g.
, urc
hin
yiel
d, to
uris
m p
rofit
s,
biod
iver
sity
, wav
e en
ergy
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Any management action yields an ecosystem services outcome
Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
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Different actions yield different ecosystem services outcomes
Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
InherentTradeoff?
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How can you distinguish between trade-offs and suboptimal decisions?
Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
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Explore all management options
Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
EcosystemServicesFrontier
Management options that maximize two services combined lie on the frontier
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
Reveals sub-optimal decisions
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
Choosing among optimal solutions depends on societal values/preferences
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Does the frontier always have this shape?
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The shape of the frontier provides important information
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
The Cost of Institutional/Legal Bottlenecks
NMFS
FWS
FERC
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
The Cost of Institutional Bottlenecks
Small Costs
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Ecosystem Service 1
Ecos
yste
m S
ervi
ce 2
The Cost of Institutional Bottlenecks
Large Costs
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Total Fish Biomass (Conservation)
Fish
ery
Prof
it
Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation
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Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation
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Total Fish Biomass (Conservation)
Fish
ery
Prof
it
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
?
Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation
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Total Fish Biomass
Fish
ery
Prof
it
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
All Harvest PoliciesOn Frontier IncludeMarine Reserves
Example: Fisheries vs. Conservation
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Applying tradeoff analysis to emerging ocean uses
Wave energy
Aquaculture
Wind energy
LNG Desalination
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Many competing technologies
• pistons and forced air• hinged, articulating• wave overtopping• Faraday principle
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Fish
ery
Pro
fit
Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value
Real Estate Value
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Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value
- What distance from shore to site wave farm?
shor
elin
e
offshore distance
shallow deep
crabs
- Estimate value of fishery per km (from 3-9km offshore)- Assume WE displaces crab fishing with no benefits
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Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value
- What distance from shore to site wave farm?
shor
elin
e
offshore distance
shallow deep
crabsview
- Estimate value of coastal real estate- WE reduces value by amount of view impacted by buoys
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Crab fishery, wave energy & coastal property value
- What distance from shore to site wave farm?
shor
elin
e
offshore distance
shallow deep
crabswavebuoys
view
- Estimate value of wave energy per km (from 3-10km)- Evaluate range of offshore distance siting options
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Maximum energy profit at 5km offshore
Crab profit decreased by wave energy
View maximally impacted by wave energy
Putting the pieces together
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Maximum energy profit at 5km offshore
Crab profit decreased by wave energy
View maximally impacted by wave energy
Peak value: 4.95 km
TOTAL
Putting the pieces together
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Adding More Reality
• Coastal Erosion
• Barriers to Movement (boats, mammals)
• Benefits to Fisheries?
• Alongshore Locations
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Benefits of an MSP Decision Framework
• Separates Real Tradeoffs from Poor Decisions
• Identifies Critical Science Needs
• Measures Costs of Ignorance & Suboptimal Governance
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