December 2002
Section 9
Communicating the Science
Short History of Climate Change Science-Policy
Interaction
An early warning
“Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on long-term projects…based on the assumption that past climate data…are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption…”
UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference
Villach, Austria 1985
“Humanity is conducting an unintended,
uncontrolled, globally pervasive experiment
whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a global nuclear war.”
World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere:
Toronto, June 1988
UN General Assembly
early resolutions on climate change
•1988 •recognizes climate change as a common concern of mankind •request to WMO and UNEP to establish IPCC
•1989 •supports UNEP proposal to prepare for negotiations of a FCCC•decides to convene UNCED
•1990 -establishes the Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee for the FCCC
..which eventually led to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)
Ultimate Objective of the FCCC
“...to achieve...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations...at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system…”
MitigationMitigating climate change by reducinggreenhouse gas emissions
AdaptationAdapting to the changes that are inevitable,
no matter what mitigative action is taken
SciencePromoting the science needed as asound basis for decision making onmitigation and adaptation
UNFCCC identified three key areas of response
Challenges for Climate Change Science-Policy
Interaction
Climate change science is complex science
• Involves many different disciplines• Has benefited from several decades of intensive
research– Globally, several thousand papers currently published
each year, at an annual cost of ~$US 3 billion
• Like a huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces
• Requires comprehensive international effort involving experts from all disciplines involved to properly assess
International climate system research is well coordinated and very active
• Coordinated through World Climate Programme– WMO, ICSU, UNEP
– WCRP, WCIP, GCOS etc
• Implemented within national research programs
• Thousands of peer-reviewed papers published each year
• Regular national and international assessments
Traditional Process of Science Advice to Policy
Research Scientists
Policy-Public
However, scientists face important challenges in communicating complex science to others
• The nature of ‘normal’ scientific investigation and debate– based on logic rather than cognitive processes– adversarial, not focused on consensus development– debate primarily within disciplines
• Isolationism– many are “too busy” to talk to non-scientists!– inadequate interdisciplinarity, especially between physical and social
scientists
• Inadequate training in communication skills– dealing with media– addressing misinformation– understanding policy development process
Hence, in order to be policy relevant, need to move beyond ‘normal’ science
• The ‘normal’ science process fails the policy needs when the science is:
– Complex, multi-disciplinary– Uncertain– Of urgent relevance to policy issues
• Rather, need process that – Is inclusive– Undertakes comprehensive assessments of the science across disciplines, focusing on what
we know– Uses expanded peer review to also ensure input of stakeholders– Revisits the issue regularly
POST-NORMAL SCIENCE (as per SAGE report)
The IPCC process for providing science advice is a good example of ‘post-normal’ science
• Use many authors to prepare assessments on a broad range of themes
• Selection of lead author for assessment chapters based on internationally recognized expertise
• Content of each chapter based on published literature, with invited contributions from other experts
• Chapters sent to peer scientists for review, amended, then sent to peer scientists and governments for second review.
• Final content is responsibility of lead authors, and is accepted (not approved) by IPCC as expert contribution
• Consensus summary for policy makers developed and approved collaboratively by IPCC and lead authors
• 2001 WGI report alone involved 1078 experts
SCIENCE TO POLICYIPCC TAR CHAPTER 3
Expert Science
Assessment
Technical Summary
SPM
699 papers
~ 60 pages
10 pages
~3 page
Details
Synthesis
Overview
The Bottom Line
Canadians have played a prominent role in the IPCC assessments
Gov’t Academia Total Canada
Total World
WG I 28 14 42 1057
WG II 34 13 47 859
WG III 12 7 19 ~550
Total 74 34 108 2466
Canadian Involvement in IPCC Third Assessment Report
Cautious
Increasing Confidence
The IPCC has become the principle source of science advice to policy makers on climate system research
1990
1992
1995
1997
2001
First ReportFirst Report
Second ReportSecond Report
Third ReportThird Report
Are the IPCC results credible?
Joint statement by Academies of Science from 17 other countries – May 2001
“The work of the…IPCC represents the consensus of the international science community on climate change science. We recognize IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information…and endorse its method of achieving this consensus.”
US NRC Committee also advised the Whitehouse that the IPCC assessments are very credible
• Full IPCC TAR WGI report is “an admirable summary of research activities in climate science”
• The full report is adequately summarized in the Technical Summary
• The SPM puts stronger emphasis on concerns, less emphasis on uncertainties than full report– all changes were made with consent of
convening lead authors
– most changes had little impact on contents
Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague,
November 2000
“The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. The question is not whether climate will change..but rather how much.. how fast, and where”
Canadian science advice on climate change is undertaken within this international context
Policy-Public
De-jargoned Science Advice
Research scientists
AssessmentAssessment
IPCC National
Communications
In many respects, this is consistent with the principles for the Effective Use of S&T Advice in Canadian Government Decision Making (SAGE)
Principle I: Early issue identificationMaintain strong links with broad science community
Principle II: InclusivenessCapture input from diverse scientific schools of thought and opinion
Principle III: Sound science and science adviceQuality, integrity, objectivityImproved communications
Principle IV: Uncertainty and riskCommunicate uncertainty explicitly and effectivelyEmploy risk management approaches
Principle V: Transparency and opennessPublic access to findings and policy
Principle VI: ReviewEvaluate policies against new science
However, both scientists and policy makers must understand and consider the complex feedbacks between the climate system and society
Socio-Economic Development Paths
•Carbon dioxide•Methane•Nitrous oxide•Aerosols
•Main drivers are population,
energy,economic growth, technology and land use
•Temperature rise•Sea level rise•Precipitation change
•Floods and droughts•Biodiversity•Animal and plant health
Climate SystemHuman &
Natural Systems
Enhanced greenhouse
effect
Non-climate change stresses
Interacti
ons
Air pollu
tion Environmental
impacts
Atmospheric Concentrations
Anthropogenic emissions
Climate change impacts
Feedbacks
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS are useful tools for describing these feedbacks and linkages, and for exploring policy options
• The models seek to simulate the many feedbacks between social behaviour and climate system response in a dynamic, coupled system
• Inputs: Socio, technical and economic data; policies; initial conditions and criteria for avoiding danger due to climate change
• Outputs: climate change, sea level rise, impacts
One useful learning application with an IAM is the SAFE LANDING ANALYSIS
• Select designated danger thresholds for analysis (e.g., dT; dT/dt;dSLR)
• Use maximum rate of emission reductions as another input threshold (%/yr)
• Use model in backcasting mode to identify range of safe emissions in near term that avoid exceeding thresholds in future decades
Example: Limits dT<2C; dT/decade<0.15C;SLR<30 cm; Emission reduction rate<2%/yr
Safe corridor Safe corridor for 1for 1stst decade decade
Globalemissionpath
Safe corridor for Safe corridor for 22ndnd decade decade
Another application is the INTERACTIVE SCENARIO SCANNER (ISS)
• A tool for involving policy makers in developing policy scenarios
• Based on outputs from Integrated Assessment Models
• Allows user to apply alternative assumptions about socio-economic variables, climate sensitivities, and danger thresholds
• A ‘willed future’ approach using Kaya formula factors
Which are:• KAYA formula for fossil fuel emissions:
CO2 Emissions = Population
x GDP per capita (wealth)
x energy/GDP (energy efficiency)
x Carbon/energy (energy type)
•Land use and change for biological emissions
Population growth (%/yr) 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
- 1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Change energy intensity (%/yr)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Income growth (%/yr) 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Change CO2/GJ (%/yr) 1.0
0.5
0.0
- 0.5
-1.0
-1.52000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Illustrative willed-future for ISS simulation
Example for Annex I countries
…and resulting implications for risk of danger (using same thresholds as previously used)
CO2 Concentration
Danger
Caution
OK
dT
dT/decade SLR
Some concluding thoughts:
• The evidence for a changing climate is clear• Humans are likely the primary cause for recent
changes • The climate will get MUCH, MUCH warmer• Impacts will provide benefits and adverse effects• We can reduce the risks by mitigation• We MUST learn to adapt as well as mitigate• Good data is critical to the climate change debate
“To survive in the world we
have transformed, we must learn to think in a new way. As never before, the future of each depends on the good of
all.”
100 Nobel LaureatesOslo, December 2001
Some Relevant EC and NRCan websites
• Environment Canada - climate change (general) – www.ec.gc.ca/climate
• NRCan - climate change (general)– http://climatechange.nrcan.gc.ca/
• Science Assessment– www.msc.ec.gc.ca/saib/
• Adaptation– http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca
• Climate Modelling– www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/
• Climate Trends & Attribution– www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/
• Canada Country Study– www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/