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Content
Overview
US Dollar
Euro
GBP
JPY
Economic Indicators
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Research Team
Fundamental Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst
[email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135
Anish Vyas - Research Analyst
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104
Overview:
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Highlights
US Unemployment Claims declined to 341,000 for w/e on 8th Feb.
European Flash GDP declined to 0.6 percent in Q4 of 2012.
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 6.62 percent in Jan.
German Prelim GDP declined by 0.6 percent in last quarter of 2012.
Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of less profit
arnings from the Australian and Japanese corporate companies.
US Unemployment Claims declined by 27,000 to 341,000 for the week
nding on 8th
February as against a rise of 368,000 in prior week.
ndia's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined to 6.62 percent in January
rom earlier rise of 7.18 percent in December. Food Price Index was up
y 11.88 percent in last month as against a rise of 11.16 percent in
December. Fuel Price Index rose by 7.06 percent in January as
ompared to previous rise of 9.38 percent a month ago. Manufacturing
nflation was at 4.81 percent in January with respect to 5.04 percent in
December.
US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday on account
f rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to
ncrease in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that,
nfavorable economic data from the Euro region also supported an
pside in the DX.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of US
nemployment claims data coming on a positive note. It touched an
ntra-day high of 80.71 and closed at 80.54 on Thursday.
Dollar/INR
he Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterday’s
rading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak
omestic market sentiments along with strength in the DX.
Additionally, dollar demand from oil companies also exerted downside
ressure on the currency.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of
ountry’s wholesale price index data coming on a favorable note. It
ouched an intra-day low of 54.02 and closed at 53.98 against dollar on
hursday.
or the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.20,538.70
rores ($3,854.53 million) as on 14th
February 2013. Year to date basis,
et capital inflows stood at Rs.42,597.70 crores ($7,913.90 million) till
4th
February 2013.
Outlook
rom the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate
n the back of dollar demand from oil companies coupled with weak
lobal market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency
will be capped as a result of weakness in the DX.
Market Highlights (% change) as on February 14, 2
LastPrev.
dayWoW MoM
NIFTY 5897.0 -0.6 -0.7 -2.4
SENSEX 19497.2 -0.6 -0.4 -2.3
DJIA 13973.39 -0.1 0.2 2.8
S&P 1521.4 0.1 0.8 3.4
FTSE 16545.0 -1.0 0.9 -6.2
KOSPI 1979.6 0.2 2.5 0.3
BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 0.2 -5.3
NIKKEI 11307.3 0.5 -0.1 5.6
Nymex Crude
(Jan’13) - $/bbl
97.31 0.3 1.5 1.9
Comex Gold (Jan’13)
- $/oz
1634.70 -0.6 -1.9 -3.1
Comex Silver(Jan’13)
$/oz
3034.30 -1.7 -3.4 -4.9
LME Copper (3
month) -$/tonne
8237.50 0.0 0.3 5.0
CRB Index
(Industrial)
- - - -
G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -
Yield
102.13 0.2 0.4 0.1
Source:
US Dollar (% change) as on February 14, 2
LastPrev.
dayWoW MoM
Dollar Index 80.54 0.5 0.4 1.0
US $ / INR (Spot) 53.98 -0.3 -1.4 0.7
US $ / INR Feb’13
Futures (NSE)
54.03 0.10 1.16 -1.06
US $ / INR Feb’13
Futures (MCX-SX)
54.03 0.11 1.15 -1.06
Source:
Technical Chart – USD/INR
Source: T
Technical Outlook valid for February 15, 20
Trend Support Resis
US Dollar/INR Feb’13
(NSE/MCX-SX)Up 53.85/53.70 54.10/
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Euro (% change) as on February 14, 2013
Last Prev. day WoW MoM
Euro /$ (Spot) 1.336 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1
Euro / INR (Spot) 71.96 0.6 -0.5 0.4
Euro / INR Feb ’13
Futures (NSE)
71.96 -1.05 -0.70 -1.34
Euro / INR Feb’13
Futures (MCX-SX)
72.0 -1.06 -0.70 -1.33
Source: Re
Technical Chart – Euro
Source: Tele
GBP (% change) as on February 14, 201
Last Prev. day WoW MoM
$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5493 -0.31 -1.4 -3.1
GBP / INR (Spot) 83.528 -0.08 0.31 -5.27
GBP / INR Feb’13
Futures
(NSE)
83.74 -0.24 -0.24 -4.72
GBP / INR Feb
’13 Futures
(MCX-SX)
83.75 -0.22 -0.23 -4.71
Source: Re
Technical Chart – Sterling Pound
Source: Tele
uro/INR
he Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday on the back of French
relim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in Q4 of
012 as against a rise of 0.1 percent in Q3 of 2012. German Prelim GDP
eclined by 0.6 percent in last quarter of 2012 from rise of 0.2 percent in
3 of 2012.
ench Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.2 percent in Q4 of 2012
s compared to earlier fall of 0.3 percent a quarter ago. Italian Prelim
DP fell by 0.9 percent in Q4 of 2012 with respect to drop of 0.2 percent
prior quarter. European Flash GDP declined to 0.6 percent in the last
uarter of 2012 from earlier plunge of 0.1 percent in Q3 of 2012.
dditionally, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market
entiments also acted as a negative factor for the currency. The Euro
ouched an intra-day low of 1.3313 and closed at 1.336 against dollar on
hursday.
utlook
today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of European
nd Italian trade balance expected to come on a positive note. Apart
om that, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the
urrency.
echnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013
Trend Support Resistance
ro/INR Feb’13
SE/MCX-SX)Down 71.60/71.40 72.40/72.90
BP/INR
he Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues
om rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments.
dditionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the
urrency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5472 and
osed at 1.5493 against dollar on Thursday.
utlook
We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in today’sade on the back of retail sales data expected to come on a favorable
ote along with decline in the DX. However, weak global market
entiments will cap sharp gains in the currency.
echnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013
Trend Support Resistance
BP/INR Feb ’13
SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 83.55/83.30 83.90/84.10
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JPY (% change) as on February 14, 201
Last Prev day WoW MoM
JPY / $ (Spot) 92.85 -0.6 -0.8 3.3
JPY / INR (Spot) 0.5802 0.54 2.24 -4.85 -8
JPY 100 / INR Feb’13
Futures (NSE)
58.07 0.64 1.94 -5.11 -8
JPY 100 / INR Feb’13
Futures (MCX-SX)
58.06 0.61 1.92 -5.12 -8
Source:
Technical Chart – JPY
Source: Te
Y/INR
e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading
ssion on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments
ich led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
wever, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of country’s
P data coming on unfavorable note. The Yen touched an intra-day high92.65 and closed at 92.85 against dollar on Thursday.
tlook
r the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk
ersion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in
mand for the low yielding currency.
chnical Outlook valid for February 15, 2013
Trend Support Resistance
/INR Feb ’13E/MCX-SX)
Sideways 57.60/57.30 58.20/58.50
Economic Indicators to be released on February 15, 2013
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
Bank Holiday China All Day - - - -
Retail Sales m/m UK 3:00pm - 0.5% -0.1% High
Empire State Manufacturing Index US 7:00pm - -2.1 -7.8 Medium
TIC Long-Term Purchases US 7:30pm - 34.3B 52.3B Medium
Capacity Utilization Rate US 7:45pm - 78.9% 78.8% Medium
Industrial Production m/m US 7:45pm - 0.2% 0.3% Medium
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US 8:25pm - 74.8 71.3 High
Mortgage Delinquencies US 15t
– 19t
- - 7.40% Medium
G20 Meetings All Day 1 - - - High