COVID-19Insights Briefing
P u b l i s h e d : 4 / 2 2 / 2 0 2 0
1
Classified - Confidential
Executive Summary by Topic Area:
Executive Summary
1
Topic Key Data, Findings and Insights
COVID-19 Spread
and Response
(15-30 day focus)
US daily diagnoses growing +~4% / day (absolute #s trending below peak, but still ~28k avg daily diagnoses)
788k national diagnoses with continued hot spots in NY & NJ, LA, MI, and MA (highest cases / M); many daily rate increases
trending down
It has been nearly 2 weeks since any new state-wide mitigation efforts were announced; however GA, TN, and SC all announce
plan to ease social distancing, starting in the next two weeks
# of U.S. daily tests continues to trend at similar levels the last two weeks, after initial increase. Many experts cite the need for
expanded testing to help ease social distancing restrictions
2 Macro
Scenarios and
Data
First round of Small Business Loan funding via CARES allocated within first 13 days – with loans going to a variety of industries, in
varying amounts, and Congress has reached a deal for second round of program funds (+$480B)
70% Americans concerned about infection from virus (-5pts vs. last week); 90% of American remain concerned about the
pandemic’s impact on the economy (flat vs. last week)
3 State of the Marketplace Foodservice: Restaurant transactions erosion has held steady for the past 3 weeks. Stated past day order frequency continues to
slowly increase.
– Within digital foodservice, traffic strong, but not attracting many new users
Total retail continues to post ~15% $ growth vs. YAG
4State of the
Customer and
Consumer
Americans avoidance of eating out has eased for the first time in a month. When they return, many MAY do so cautiously and
minimize contact with other diners.
Amongst online grocery shoppers, over 26% of these shoppers have tried a new digital format since COVID
Consumers are using all communication channels more; however, TV is increasing the most
Within media and social media mentions about TCCC, empathy and support are core themes connecting with consumers; other
brands applaud/encouraging social distance
2
Classified - Confidential
U.S. continues to show positive signs in flattening curve as number of new patients and hospitalizations trend below peaks; daily testing essentially flat
3
1 COVID-19 Spread
Sources: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ accessed on 4/21 at am EST
The COVID Tracking Project (data as of 4/21)
Click to Appendix for additional Detail
U.S. Avg Daily Increase in
Hospitalized Patients
Timeline of # Diagnoses since
100th Patient
U.S. Avg # New COVID
Patients Per Day
0K
10K
30K
20K
40K
1-
Mar
21-
Apr
2K
0K
4K
6K
25-
Mar
20-
Apr
Daily Tests (Total US)
7 day change
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0.1K
1.0K
100.0K
1,000.0K
10.0K
788
Spain
Japan
China
U.S.
UK
U.S. Avg # New COVID
Deaths Per Day
0K
1K
2K
3K
4K
21-
Apr
1-
Mar
20-
Apr
13-
Apr
129k 138k
+7%
Classified - Confidential
No new statewide mitigation efforts announced in nearly 2 weeks – however, some states make moves toward re-opening economies
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, As of 4.21.20. Media Reports
4
1 COVID-19 Response Updated 4/22
Statewide Mitigation Efforts Unchanged in Last 12 Days States Planning to Ease Social Distancing
Reopen certain businesses
Reopen certain businesses; limited restaurant
dine-in
• NYC announces all large public gatherings banned throughout month of June 2020
• On 4/21, President Trump temporarily suspends Green Cards to the U.S. for 60 days via
an executive order
• SC: Limited # of stores allowed to open on 4/20
• GA: Starting Friday, gyms, salons, bowling alleys. Theaters and
restaurant to follow within a week
• TN: Stay at home order to expire April 30
Classified - ConfidentialSource: WSJ “Contact tracing teams grow as states hope to reopen” 4-20
The COVID Tracking Project (data as of 4/20)
Contact Tracing Seen as Key to Reopening Safely In-lieu of Mass Testing or Development of
Vaccine
2 Macros: Reopening the Country
5
Daily Testing has Stagnated Recently
• Seen as critical until a vaccine is
developed or mass testing is available
• More contact tracing workers will be
needed as restrictions are eased
• Countries such as Singapore and
South Korea use sophisticated,
technology driven contract tracing
tracking people who have had COVID
using people’s digital footprint
• Apple Inc. and Google have working
together to build software that would
alert people if they were in contact with
someone infected with the new
coronavirus. This is likely to face
privacy challenges in the US
146,614137,687
14-Apr 16-Apr15-Apr 19-Apr17-Apr 18-Apr 20-Apr
-6%
Increasing the amount of testing has been cited as key to
safely reopening
How Contact Tracing Works:
Classified - Confidential
Both Federal and State governments start laying out initial guidance for re-opening parts of the economy
6
1 COVID-19 Response
Sources: Whitehouse.gov/openingamerica. (Accessed 4/17/20)
Federal “Opening Up America Again” Guidelines
Staging Criteria
Must satisfy before moving to
Phased Comeback
Downward trajectory of flu-like
reported illness AND downward
trajectory of covid-like reported
cases within 14 days
SY
MP
TO
MS
PA
TIE
NT
SH
OS
PIT
AL
S
Downward trajectory of
documented cases OR
downward trajectory of positive
tests as % of total tests within 14
days
Treat all patients without crisis
care AND robust testing program
in place for at-risk healthcare
workers, including emerging
antibody tests
Phase I Phase 2 Phase 3
Must re-satisfy “Staging Criteria” again to move to next Phase
IND
IVID
UA
LS
EM
PL
OY
ER
S
• Vulnerable continue to
shelter in place
• When in public, maximize
social distance
• Avoid groups 10+
• Minimal non-essential
travel
• Vulnerable continue to
shelter in place
• When in public, maximize
social distance
• Avoid groups 50+
• Non-essential travel case
resume
• Vulnerable resume public
interactions, cautiously
• Low-risk should consider
minimizing time in public
• A/O resume normal
• Promote telework, return
in phases
• Schools closed
• Large venues (gyms,
dining) operate under
strict social distance
guidelines
• Bars remain closed
• Promote telework, where
possible
• Schools reopen
• Large venues use
moderate social
distance guidelines
• Bars open with less
capacity
• Unrestricted staffing
• Visits to sr. care
facilities resume
• Large venues use
limited social distance
guidelines
• Bars open with full
capacity
States’ Plans
• In addition to Federal
guidance, state governors
have started working
regionally to coordinate re-
opening plans
• NY Shelter-In-Place order
extended until May 15
• CA Gov Newsome outlines
indicators on when return
possible the state (including:
testing ability and ability for
healthcare system to handle
surges)
Classified - Confidential
22M Americans file for unemployment in last 4 weeks—March jobs report reveals that at least majority of losses are furloughs, not layoffs
7
2 Macro: Jobs
Incom
e P
erc
en
tile
Weekly Seasonally Adjusted Initial Unemployment
Insurance Claims
22M+ in Last 4
Weeks
1980 2000 2020
• 5.1M Americans applied for unemployment insurance benefits this week,
second week of absolute # declines
• Economists believe that that we may have seen peak #s, but warn that
additional ~25M jobs at risk, therefore a long tail could persist
Potential Silver Lining: March Jobs Report shows 80% job
losses hopefully temporary
80% 20%% March
Job Losses
LayoffsFurloughs
Online Help Ads scraping reveal industries seeing largest
growth and declines in role demand vs YAG
Google Search interest in “Jobless Claims” also seems to
have peaked
21-
Feb
26-
Mar
14-
Apr
Sources Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March U.S. Jobs Report. Conference Board COVID reporting
Google Search Trends Index, U.S. Last 90 days as of 4/17/20
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March’s drop in consumer confidence was one of the steepest yet and widely expected to continue to drop—important predictor of consumer spending
8
2 Macro: Consumer Confidence
Sources Conference Board, “Coronavirus Implications for Business” Published April 15, 2020.
Incom
e P
erc
en
tile
Incom
e P
erc
en
tile
Such a steep drop often signals a significant
drop in consumer spending
Consumer Confidence relative to Other Shocks
Data through March 31, Reported Apr 15Nearly 20% of total Personal Consumption Spend
within sectors at risk due to virus:
For every 10% drop in spending in categories affected by COVID-
19, overall consumer spending drops 1.7%
Classified - Confidential
This week millions of Americans started receiving the ~$300B worth of stimulus checks that were provided via the CARES act
9
2 Macro: Stimulus Checks
Sources Conference Board, “Coronavirus Implications for Business” Published April 15, 2020.
Incom
e P
erc
en
tile
Incom
e P
erc
en
tile
Average Middle Class Monthly Expenses
Per Bureau of Labor Stats, Census, and IRS
$580
$1,488
$386
$720
$342
$925
Transportation
Health
Entertainment
Other
Food
Housing
Avg Relief
Check: $1958
2018 Median Monthly Household Income: $5,161
82% 10% 8%
Full Amount NonePartial
% of U.S. Households Receiving Stimulus Checks:
Per Congressional Research Service Estimates
Stimulus Check Payment Eligibility
• Single tax filers making less than $75K, receive $1,200
(married and making less than $150K receive $2,400)
– Additional $500 for eligible tax credits
• Prorated amount for those making between $75K and $99K
• Anyone who earned $99K+ is not eligible
(Covers 95%
avg food and
housing costs)
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10
2 Macros: Small Business CARES Loans
Second round of funding deal
reached on 4/21
• Legislation includes $480B
in additional aid
• Allocation of new funds as
follows:
$321
$75
Small
Business
Loans
$100
Hospitals
& Testing
Economic
Disaster
Assistance
Stats revealed on allocation of first round of Small Business loan recipients, as Congress
reaches deal for more funding
In the CARES Act, Congress allocated $350B for loans through the “Paycheck Protection
Pan.” By 4/14, 1.6M+ loans approved, funds used
13
13
12
12
9
9
6
5Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Professional Services
Retail Trade
Health Care
Foodservice
Wholesale Trade
% Funding by Industry
Per Capita Funding by State
Midwest
receives most
per capita
funding.
CA/NY on
lower end
% Funding By Loan Size
15 14
2417 20
9
<$150K >$150K -
$350K
>$350K -
$1M
>$1M -
$2M
>$2M -
$5M
>$5M
Source: Paycheck Protection Program Report, U.S. Small Business Association as of 12pm
EST 4/16/20. Media Reports at 8am on 4/22
Classified - Confidential
2 Macro Sentiment
Strong majority of Americans remain concerned with infection and virus’s impact on the economy, with concern about infection dropping vs. last week
Source: FiveThirtyEight.Com “How Americans View the Corona Virus” accessed on 4/21/20 at 8am
11
How worried are Americans about INFECTION?
Updated 4/21
How concerned are you that you or someone in your family will become
infected with the coronavirus
70% (-5pts vs last week) of Americans somewhat or very
concerned about infection
How worried are Americans about THE ECONOMY?
How concerned are you about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S.
economy?
~90% (flat vs. last week) of Americans concerned about
the impact on economy
First U.S.
Death
Nat’l
emergency
Millions file
unemployment
10K+ U.S.
DeathsMillions file
unemployment
First U.S.
Death
Nat’l
emergency
10K+ U.S. Deaths
Classified - Confidential
COVID Pulse (via Coca-Cola Internal/ IPSOS Pulse)
There is a time lag to the data on how our marketplace and our consumers’ behaviors are changing
12
3 View of the Marketplace
0K
14-
Mar
11-
Apr
21-
Apr
788K
21-
Mar
7-
Mar
0K
28-
Mar
4-
Apr
3K 27K105K
246K
466K
# o
f U
.S. C
OV
ID
Dia
gn
os
es
CREST Transaction Performance Alerts Available up to 4/11
Mar 3: U.S.
approves
widespread
COVID testing
Mar 13:
National
Emergency
declared
Mar 15: CDC no
gathering of 50+
for 8 weeks
Mar 11: U.S.
implements
European travel
ban
Various points of insight with differing time lags
N/A
Numerator Panel Available up to 4/5 N/A(Ecommerce additional 2 week lag)
Consumer
Apr 5: U.S hits
10K virus-related
deaths
Today
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13
57
15
33
0
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3/7 3/211/4 2/1 4/11
Total Retail NARTD
Total Retail & NARTD3 State of the Marketplace
Retail spiked during the week of 3/21, with growth cooling the last three weeks of available scanner data, especially in NARTD
% $ Measured Retail Growth by Week in 2020Nielsen xAOC+CR, Total U.S.
Pre-COVID19 Mitigation Stock-UpShelter In
Place
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2/11/4 3/7 3/21 4/11
North
Midwest
West
South
And retail has behaved fairly consistently across
regions of country
% $ Measured Retail Growth by RegionNielsen Large Store
Source: Nielsen Scanner Data; Total Store xAOC+CR,CCNA Custom Database NARTD CCNA Compset, AMC
Classified - ConfidentialSources: Numerator Panel Weekly Data
4 State of the Markerplace
14
Numerator Data: w/e 4/05
HH Penetration Trips (MM) $/Trip Sales ($MM)
La
rge
Sto
re
Sm
all
Sto
reQ
SR
AO
R
esta
ura
nt
DE
TA
ILE
D T
RE
ND
-0.6%
-7.1%
-27.9%
-65.3%
-11.6%
-8.6%
-33.3%
-73.9%
+33.8%
+17.6%
-13.2%
+12.6%
+18.2%
+15.7%
-24.9%
-77.3%
Retail sales continue to grow driven through increased ticket size. Foodservice sales continue to erode.
Shopper Metrics: % Change vs. pre COVID-19 8 week average (1/6-3/1)Numerator; week ending 4/05/20 – Note: 2 week data lag to present
$17,319
88%
45%
30%
9%
392
131
6816
$44.31
$14.47
$10.13
$27.14
$1,735
$712
…
Classified - Confidential
-8%
-36%-42% -41% -43%
-7%
-34%-40% -38%
-41%-24%
-73%
-79% -77% -77%
-22%
-67%
-81% -81% -81%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
03/01/20 03/08/20 3/15/2020 03/22/20 3/29/2020 04/05/20 4/12/2020
Weekly Restaurant Transactions: Chg vs Yago
Total QSR Casual Dining Midscale
Restaurant transactions erosion has held steady for the past 3 weeks. Stated past day order frequency continues to slowly increase.
3 State of the Marketplace
43% 41%
27% 22%
30% 36%
Mar 25 Apr 14
Thought About It
Didn’t Even Consider It
Got Food From A Restaurant
Past Day Restaurant Order Consideration
Source: CREST Performance Alerts, weekly transaction data for 73 chains + NPD on Adage Source: Datassential Coronavirus Traffic Brief 4/14
15
xx
8%
23%18%
30%
21%
5%
29%
11%
29%26%
Dine in Order ahead To go Drive thru Delivery
Mar 25
Apr 14
6%12%
16%
3%9%
17%22%
5%
Breakfast Lunch Dinner Snack
Mar 25
Apr 14
Service Mode (Among Past Day Orders)
Meal Type (Among Past Day Orders)
Classified - Confidential
4 State of the Customer
16
21%67%
12%
Thoughts about Dining In When COVID Eases
Source: Datassential Coronavirus Report 14: April 15, 2020
Will Dine In Normally
Will Dine In
Cautiously
Americans avoidance of eating out has eased for the first time in a month. When they return, many will do so cautiously as they lack trust in fellow diners.
Very Concerned about COVID-19 & Avoidance of Eating Out
20% 27% 47% 53% 62% 62% 63% 64% 64% 68% 59%
41%
49%
60% 61% 61% 59%
67% 65%61%
64%60%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Mar 10 Mar 14 Mar 18 Mar 22 Mar 25 Mar 29 Apr 1 Apr 3 Apr 7 Apr 10 Apr 15
Avoid Eating Out Very Concerned about COVID-19
40%
26%
22%
18%
17%
16%
15%
12%
11%
47%
62%
61%
49%
55%
55%
55%
43%
45%
12%
13%
17%
33%
28%
28%
30%
46%
44%
Our own dining companions (friends andfamily)
Traditional grocery stores/supermarkets
Supercenters (Walmart, Target)
Cafeterias (schools, offices, hospitals)
Counter service/Fast food restaurants
Sit-down restaurants
Convenience stores
Fellow diners in a restaurant
Fellow shoppers in a grocery store
Trust COMPLETELY Trust SOMEWHAT DO NOT Trust
May Never Go Back To
Dining In
Level Of Trust To Take Precautions To Keep You Safe
Classified - Confidential
4 State of the Customer
17Source: Datassential Coronavirus: Report 13 Published April 16, 2020 (fielded Apr 10th – 13th)
Consumers indicate prioritizing safety over budget after distancing is eased with restaurant cited as a possible savings source; if budgets improves, FSRs benefit
Stated Spending Behaviors IF BUDGETS IMPROVE
38%
23%
22%
19%
18%
17%
15%
15%
15%
14%
12%
Get restaurant food less often
Find and use more coupons
Choose less expensive restaurants
Choose less expensive menu items
Order from the ‘value’ / ‘dollar’ menu more
Order delivery less often
Order carry-out instead of dining in
Order more shared/big bundle items
Just have water with my meal
Skip appetizers, side dishes, or desserts
Skip having alcoholic beverages with my meal
Stated Behaviors To Save Money After Social Distancing Is Eased
76%
72%
69%
66%
56%
56%
55%
52%
40%
38%
A restaurant’s cleanliness & food safety will matter …
Keep a stash of essential groceries, just in case
Avoid crowded places: Even if the govt. says it’s safe
Still avoid self-serve food (buffets, salad bars, etc).
Save a budget in mind before going to the grocery…
Save money by buying groceries in bulk more
Have a budget in mind before going to eat at a…
Stick with what I know & NOT try new rests. or…
Maintain my current usage of takeout and delivery
Switch to cheaper brands of food from the grocery…
Stated Behaviors After Social Distancing Is Eased
29%22%19%17%16%16%16%15%14%14%14%13%12%11%
Meals from
limited-
service
restaurants
Non-
alcoholic
beverages
with my meal
Going out for
drinks
Snacks or
smoothies
away from
home
Eating at
places where
tipping is
expected
Alcoholic
beverages
with my meal
Appetizers
and desserts
with my meal
Convenience
/pre-made
foods
Coffee away
from home
Upscale/prem
ium brands
from the
grocery store
Snacks from
the grocery
store
Fresh
prepared
foods from
the grocery
store
Health
focused foods
Meals from
full-service
restaurants
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18
4 State of the Consumer/Customer
Usage for digital foodservice/3rd Party Delivery is strong post COVID-19, but small increases in new users
Coca-Cola THIRST Survey, COVID-19 Shopping/Dining Behaviors 04/03/20 - 04/08/20
Coca-Cola NextGen Bev360 Flex Survey March 30-April 5, 2020
16%
16%
14%
18%
18%
14%
17%
14%
13%
49%
53%
59%
More Same Less Not Using
Restaurant
Web/App
PICKUP
Restaurant
Web/App
DELIVERY
3rd Party
DELIVERY
NET More
% USING MORE, SAME, LESS OF DIGITAL FOODSERVICE
DUE TO COVID-19 OUTBREAK
+1% 80
%
+2% 76
%
-1% 78%
% TO
CONTINUE USE
POST COVID-19
4%
23%
26%
15%
12%
12%
11%
Dined-in at the
restaurant
Ordered takeout
from a restaurant
Ordered at restaurant’s
drive thru
Placed restaurant delivery
order by phone
Pickup order using a
restaurant's own website or
mobile app
Delivery order using a
restaurant's own website or
mobile app
3rd Party Delivery order such
as Uber Eats, DoorDash, or
Grubhub
% DID ACTIVITY IN PAST WEEK BEFORE 04/08/2020
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19
34%29% 28%
Ship To
HomeCurbside
Pickup
Local
Delivery
% USED ONLINE GROCERY & NEW USERS
IN PAST MONTH BEFORE 04/03/2020
Coca-Cola THIRST Survey - COVID-19 Shopping/Dining Behaviors 04/03/20 - 04/08/20
Coca-Cola iShop Tracker March 2020
Urban
Under 40
150134135
129131124
Used In Past Month
Urban dwellers and those under age 40 significantly more likely
to have used online grocery
17%
15%
15%
20%
16%
14%
11%
11%
10%
52%
58%
61%Ship To Home
Curbside Pickup
Local Delivery
More Same Less Not using
+5%
+4%
+6%
NET More
% USING MORE, SAME, LESS OF ONLINE GROCERY
DUE TO COVID-19 OUTBREAK
86%
Ship To
Home
Curbside
Pickup
Local Delivery
81%83%
% INTENT TO USE ONLINE GROCERY AFTER COVID-19
USERS OF ONLINE GROCERY EXPECT TO CONTINUE USAGE, IF
NOT INCREASE USAGE, ONCE THE PANDEMIC IS OVER
TOTAL WILL USE
WILL USE MORE 32% 35%33%
Amongst online grocery shoppers, over ¼ of them have tried a new digital method for shopping since COVID-19
Ship To
Home
Curbside
PickupLocal
DeliveryINDEX TO TOTAL
4 State of the Consumer/Customer
PAST 48 HOUR ONLINE GROCERY TRIPS AFTER MARCH 11th
INCREASED +2.9pt to 12.9% OF SHOPPERS VS. 1st HALF OF MARCH
% SHOPPERS USING EACH METHOD
FOR ONLINE GROCERY FOR THE
FIRST TIME
26% used a new online
method for groceries
since COVID-19
Kantar Consulting Survey
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4 State of Customer
Retailer choice is driven by item availability and safety measures – and shoppers are trying new stores to meet those needs
Shifting Shopping BehaviorsSources: C+R Research Consumer Panel Shopping Behaviors, 4/9 | mfour Geo-validated
exit interviews 4/5-4/11 (n=1,200)
Trying New Stores32% switched stores to find missing items from
their list
Want Safety50% are looking for safety measures when they
shop
Go Alone62% are going to stores alone
Look Online45% considered online buys, but went to the
store
Like Specialties65% had the best luck finding items at a specialty
grocery store
Social DistancingMany are attempting to shop stores at less peak
times and try to limit time spent in store
1
2
3
4
5
6
Increasing Number of Retailers Shop
Source: Kantar Commerce Snapshot Wave 1, April 3-7
Retailer Expectations
Source: Kantar Commerce Snapshot Wave 1, April 3-7
Average number of retailers shopped…What’s the new in-store normal?What should retailers prioritize during COVID-19?
Which retailers are doing a better job than other
retailers?
20
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Retail and Foodservice chains responses to COVID-19
Subway is enhancing cleaning
procedures; sourcing masks and
face shields for employees.
Source: NRN 4/17
4State of the Customer: Retail and
FSOP Response
21
SAFETY + PREVENTION PROMOTIONS +EXECUTION
Shake Shack will return $10M
Paycheck Protection loan,
stating “We are lucky enough
to now have access to capital
that others do not.”
Source: NRN, 4/20
Stop & Shop donates 5,00
meals a day to Medical first
responders in New York and
Boston.
Source: Supermarket News, 4/8
Chinese driverless car firm (Pony.ai)
has teamed up with eCommerce site
Yamibuy to launch delivery service in
Irvine CA and can deliver 500-700
packages a day.
Source: CNBC 4/17
On Premise businesses reinvent during
COVID-19: hospitals and schools
transform to meet evolving needs of
consumers.
Source: Food Management 4/16
Source: Food Management 4/14
Kroger adds to the growing list of
retailers piloting and rolling out
coronavirus testing centers. Kroger
teamed with Microsoft on a digital
registration process:
krogerhealth.com/covidtesting
Source: Progressivee Grocer, 4/13
Source: Business Insider, 4/14
Hy-Vee is partnering with
DSW Designer Shoe
Warehouse to offer shoes and
accessories online and in-
stores.
Source: Supermarket News 4/15
Automated burger concept,
Creator, creates a to-go window
that allows for a completely
contactless experience.
Source: NRN 4/16
Amazon is developing COVID-19
test to be able to test all
employees.
Source: CNN Business, 4/16
Source: Letter to shareowners
LABOR + COMMUNITY
New Content 4/21
Classified - Confidential
Consumers in most all regions are trying to eat more healthily.
Although almost half of Americans claim they, too, are doing
so, they are most likely to cite they have increased their
snacking.
I try to eat
healthier
I snack more
throughout the day
I treat myself more
than before
I’m trying new
recipesIn comparison to last month, respondents cite their eating habits at
home have changed in the following way (top response in each market
– not including keeping habits the same)
Kantar Barometer COVID-19 Survey 2nd Wave
Worldwide, consumers are trying to eat healthier. Additionally, in the US, consumers are more likely to snack (and eat more at home)
4 State of the Consumer
Source: IRI Surveys fielded 4/3-4/5 among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing
Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
U.S Consumers:
% of Meals At Home
22
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State of the Consumer4
Consumers are using all communication channels more; however, TV is increasing the most
FrequencyUsage
23
Classified - Confidential
• Campbell Soup Co. on Sunday night began airing a 30-
second video showcasing people at home making the most
of their social distancing.
• McDonald's chose to share some consumers' real-time,
social-distancing moments with their meals. The campaign
is designed to remind people that they are "Still the Same."
4 State of the Consumer
Brands are utilizing their voices to reward social distancing efforts
Source: TCCC Social Center Daily Reporting (updated 4/21/2020)24
• Busch beer is offering a year of free beer to 250 couples
who have had to postpone their weddings during COVID-19.
• Procter & Gamble Co.'s Old Spice brand is bringing Terry
Crews back in their new public service announcements,
which encourage customers to wash their hands and stay
inside.
• Classified - Confidential
Appendix
• Supplemental COVID-19 Spread and Response Info
25
• Classified - Confidential
US rate of daily diagnoses growth continues to decline, but is still a high absolute number (28k); daily testing increased
Sources: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ accessed on 4/21 at 8am EST
26
# Confirmed Diagnoses by Day since 100th Diagnosis Day over Day Rate of U.S. Diagnosis GrowthData as of 4/21@ 8am
Lo
garith
mic
Sca
le
1 COVID-19 Spread
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
0.1K
1.0K
1,000.0K
10.0K
100.0K
Days since 100th Diagnosis
ChinaU.S. SpainItaly United Kingdom Japan36 36
2213
84
11-
Mar
24
21-
Apr
5
Daily Tests (Total US)
7 day decrease
Updated 4/21
129,114k137,687k
20-
Apr
13-
Apr
+7%
Click to Return to Summary
787K
• Classified - Confidential
Both the average daily number of new patients and virus-related deaths in the U.S. increased recently
Source: OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus-data accessed on Apr 21, 2020 at 8 am.
Newsweek. COVID becomes number one case death per day in the U.S. Apr 9, 2020
27
1 COVID-19 Spread
Daily New Confirmed Patients: Rolling 3day Avg
0K
20K
5K
10K
15K
25K
30K
35K
1-
Mar
21-
Apr
ItalyU.S. Spain UKGermany China
Daily New COVID Related Deaths: Rolling 3day Avg
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1-
Mar
21-
Apr
U.S. Italy Spain UKGermany China
Mar 3: U.S.
approves
widespread
COVID testing
Mar 13:
National
Emergency
declared
Mar 15: CDC no
gathering of 50+
for 8 weeks
Mar 11: U.S.
implements
European
travel ban
COVID still as deadly as Cancer (~1,650 U.S. deaths per day) and
heart disease (~1,800 deaths per day)
Updated 4/21
Apr 5: 10K U.S.
Deaths
Click to Return to Summary
Apr 14: NYC
Revises death toll
• Classified - Confidential
IL LA
GA
TX
78%
DE
WA
MD
COIN AZ
WI
VT
AL
SC IDRI
UT IA AR
AK
SD
OR
NE
ME
WY
12,709
9,918
5,546
NJ
LA
NY
CT
MA
CARI
DC IA
OHMI
MT
OR
MD
DE
PA IL
SD
GA IN UT
CO
WA
WI
MS
VT
NV
FL
MN
AK
ME
TN
WY
AZ
VA
AL
NH
MO
SCID
NM
ND
NE
KS
OK
TX
KY
NC
AR
WV HI
COVID-19 Diagnoses / 1M People by State
COVID-19 % of Total US Diagnoses by State (as of 4/20/20)
12 states have above average COVID-19 diagnoses per 1M people; ~46% of total diagnoses are in NY+NJ
40
0
60
100
20
80
90%
67%
NY
FL
KY
NJ
KS
NVMI
MA
PR
CA
PA
CT
OH
TN
VA
NC
46%
WV
MO
MS
OK
DC
MN
NM
NH
NDHI
MT
55%
100%
US Avg:
1,906
1 COVID-19 Spread
28Source: The COVID Tracking Project (data as of 4/20)
• US Avg up to 1,906 (from 1,600 on 4/17)
• NY/NJ still with highest rates
• Similar shape to curve; NY/NJ with 46% of cases (vs. 47% on 4/13)
• Top 5 remains unchanged from prior week
Updated 4/21
Click to Return to Summary
• Classified - Confidential
11.7k
7.7%
0.4%N
J
KSMI
CT
WI
OK
NV
LA
NY
MN
OR
WA
PR
KY IN VT
OH
MA
MO
CO IL
ME
CA
WV
GA
MD
MS
AZ
DE
PA
DC
VA
NH
AL
NMR
I
UTHI
FL
SC
AK ID NC
TX
ND
WY
MT
AR
TN
NE
SDIA
COVID-19 Deaths / COVID-19 Diagnoses by State (Death Rate)
US Avg:
4.8%
Death rates by state are more distributed; RI is now number one in testing rate; Other tests rates vary widely
IL AZ
OH
AK
SD
WA
MARI
NY
TX
GA
DC
KY
UT
LA
FL
VT
WV
NJ
ND
CT
OR
ME
NM
MT
MS HI
INDE
TN
CA
MO
WY
PA
MD
NCMI
NH
NV ID AL
OK
AR
WI
35.0k
MN
NEIA
CO
SC
VA
KS
19.1k
7.9k
COVID-19 Tests / M by State (Test Rate)
US Avg:
13.2k
• Overall US avg continues to climb; up another 0.2pts (from 4.6% on 4/16)
• US Average continues to approach global average (6.0%)
• Overall US avg rate up 18% (from 11.2k on 4/16)
• RI has taken over as the number one spot. Other High test rates still concentrated
in “Hot spots” (e.g., NY, LA)
• Total US Tests at 4,003K (~600k abs increase vs. 4/16)
Sources: The COVID Tracking Project (data as of 4/20)
1 COVID-19 Deaths / Testing
29
Updated 4/21
Click to Return to Summary