Download - Course of Action Analysis
Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis
PurposePurpose Define course of action (COA) Define course of action (COA)
analysis and its role in the crisis analysis and its role in the crisis action planning processaction planning process
Discuss the associated task Discuss the associated task stepssteps
Identify the products resulting Identify the products resulting from COA analysisfrom COA analysis
Provide lessons learned from Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and previous exercises and operationsoperations
ReferencesReferences JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations,
App B, 10 Sep 01App B, 10 Sep 01 JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning
Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master
Training Guide, 15 Apr 97Training Guide, 15 Apr 97
Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamMultinational Planning Augmentation Team(MPAT)(MPAT)
Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process
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Mission AnalysisMission AnalysisI I
Mission AnalysisMission Analysis
CCRRIISSIISS
CCRRIISSIISS
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IISituationSituation
DevelopmentDevelopment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IIIICrisisCrisis
AssessmentAssessment
IVIVCourse of Course of
ActionActionSelectionSelection
IVIVCourse of Course of
ActionActionSelectionSelection
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning
WarningWarningOrderOrder
WarningWarningOrderOrder
PlanningPlanningOrderOrder
PlanningPlanningOrderOrder
AlertAlertOrderOrderAlertAlertOrderOrder
ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder
ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder
OPORD OPORD & &
Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base
OPORD OPORD & &
Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base
VIVIExecutionExecution
VIVIExecutionExecution
And/orAnd/orAnd/orAnd/or
IIICourse of
ActionDevelopment
IIIICourse of ActionCourse of Action
DevelopmentDevelopment IIIIII
Analysis ofAnalysis ofCourses of ActionCourses of Action
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Analysis ofAnalysis ofCourses of ActionCourses of Action
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Comparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action
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Comparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action VV
Commander’sCommander’sDecisionDecision
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Commander’sCommander’sDecisionDecisionCommander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process
Key Planning Concepts:Key Planning Concepts:– Supported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operationalSupported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operational
(MNF) focus(MNF) focus
– Orientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threatOrientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threat
– Protection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravityProtection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravity
– Phasing of operationsPhasing of operations
Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis“ Gaming the COAs ”“ Gaming the COAs ”
Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis“ Gaming the COAs ”“ Gaming the COAs ”
The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each
proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most
probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can
include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR
missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander
considered the most significant and influential aspects of the considered the most significant and influential aspects of the
situation.situation.
The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each
proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most
probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can
include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR
missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander
considered the most significant and influential aspects of the considered the most significant and influential aspects of the
situation.situation.
Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation situation
Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:
– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down
Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation situation
Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:
– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down
Analysis of COAs:Analysis of COAs: Key Points Key Points
Analysis of COAs:Analysis of COAs: Key Points Key Points
Consider crisis termination issues: think Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and threat consequences of our action, and counteractioncounteraction
Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitabilityRevalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA
Consider crisis termination issues: think Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and threat consequences of our action, and counteractioncounteraction
Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitabilityRevalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA
Analysis of COAs: Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d)Key Points (cont’d)Analysis of COAs: Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d)Key Points (cont’d)
Task StepsTask StepsTask StepsTask StepsGather theTools
Gather theTools List
AssumptionsListAssumptions
Critical Events& Decision PointsCritical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethodAnalysisMethod
RecordingMethodRecordingMethod
Analyze & AssessAnalyze & Assess
RiskAssessmentRiskAssessment
RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis
Gather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the Tools
Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most dangerous enemy or The most probable & most dangerous enemy or
threat COAsthreat COAs Combined operations area referenceCombined operations area reference Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and
probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-
Counteraction matrixCounteraction matrix Identify, list, and review existing limitationsIdentify, list, and review existing limitations
Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most dangerous enemy or The most probable & most dangerous enemy or
threat COAsthreat COAs Combined operations area referenceCombined operations area reference Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and
probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-
Counteraction matrixCounteraction matrix Identify, list, and review existing limitationsIdentify, list, and review existing limitations
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
List AssumptionsList AssumptionsList AssumptionsList Assumptions List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during
mission analysis mission analysis
Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary to Is the assumption necessary to
continue planning?continue planning?
– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the
assumption?assumption?
– Logical?Logical?
– Realistic?Realistic?
List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during
mission analysis mission analysis
Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary to Is the assumption necessary to
continue planning?continue planning?
– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the
assumption?assumption?
– Logical?Logical?
– Realistic?Realistic?
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Example: Planning AssumptionsCoalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan)
Example: Planning AssumptionsCoalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan)
Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)
Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational
TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours
Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission
No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission
Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)
Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)
Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational
TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours
Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission
No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission
Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)
List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points
List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points
Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require are essential tasks that require
detailed analysisdetailed analysis
Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander identify decisions the commander
must make to ensure timely execution andmust make to ensure timely execution and
synchronizationsynchronization
TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the available for analysis affects length of the
critical events listcritical events list
Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require are essential tasks that require
detailed analysisdetailed analysis
Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander identify decisions the commander
must make to ensure timely execution andmust make to ensure timely execution and
synchronizationsynchronization
TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the available for analysis affects length of the
critical events listcritical events list
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis
Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model
ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events
Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model
ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis
Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis
TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique
– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique
– Synchronization matrixSynchronization matrix
TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique
– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique
– Synchronization matrixSynchronization matrix
ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available
– Time availableTime available
ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available
– Time availableTime available
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results
Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results
Visualize the flow of Visualize the flow of operationsoperations
Consider CTF Consider CTF component capabilities component capabilities two echelons downtwo echelons down
““Action- Reaction/ Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Threat Consequence-Counteraction”Counteraction”
Visualize the flow of Visualize the flow of operationsoperations
Consider CTF Consider CTF component capabilities component capabilities two echelons downtwo echelons down
““Action- Reaction/ Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Threat Consequence-Counteraction”Counteraction”
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators Review assumptions, restated mission, and phases “Threat Cell”: Threat lay down (disposition) CPG leader – lead the “Friendly” actions C2 lay down and structure Forces (by component and function) Firepower - priority targets Friendly Intel action Support (C1, C4, C6, Medical, Engineering) Interagency actions Threat reaction to friendly actions For each phase or movement of forces, record the decision points,
critical information requirements, branches, sequels, risks, other key issues
Friendly counteraction to threat reaction
Conduct the Wargame: Conduct the Wargame: ChecklistChecklist
Conduct the Wargame: Conduct the Wargame: ChecklistChecklist
Course of Action Analysis
Synchronization MatrixSynchronization MatrixTIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT
PROBABLE THREAT
DECISION POINTS
CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER
OPN FIREPOWER
OPN PROTECTION
OPN INFORMATION
OPN INTEL
OPN SUPPORT
ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT
NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC
AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC
JSOTF
OTHERS
FUNCTION
JOINT
AREAS
COMPONENTS
D-DAY/H-HOUR
D + 1 D + 2
Simplified Sync MatrixSimplified Sync MatrixACTOR
CCTF
CARFOR
CNAVFOR
CAFFOR
CMARFOR
CSOTF
CPOTF
EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT
Sample Analysis WorksheetSample Analysis Worksheet
SEQ-UENCENUMBER
ACTION REACTION/THREAT/ ENEMY CONSE-QUENCES
COUNTER-ACTION
ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT
CCIR REMARKS
CRITICAL EVENT:
Large PopulationW/O Shelter increasessickness
Action/Reaction/CounteractionAction/Reaction/Counteraction
ACTION REACTION/CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION
1ST Priority isProvide MedicalSupport
Modify TPFDD/Deployment Movement Plans to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care.
Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages & Disadvantages
Advantages Disadvantages
COA 1
- Rapid delivery- Meets critical needs
Modifications 1. Assign national forces by sector2. Lead nation provides comms w/robust LNOs
- Rough integration of forces- Rough transition - Complex organization- Not flexible at all- Adequate force protection
Results of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of Analysis Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of
each friendly COAeach friendly COA
Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)
Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA
Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each
geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event
Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures
Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of
each friendly COAeach friendly COA
Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)
Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA
Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each
geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event
Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures
Course of Action Analysis
Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont) Deployment/Movement requirementsDeployment/Movement requirements
Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements
Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as
well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole
Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF
Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support
Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships
Branches and sequelsBranches and sequels
Deployment/Movement requirementsDeployment/Movement requirements
Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements
Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as
well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole
Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF
Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support
Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships
Branches and sequelsBranches and sequels
Course of Action Analysis
Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints
Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points
Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase
Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance
Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks
Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements
Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints
Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points
Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase
Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance
Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks
Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements
Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)
Course of Action Analysis
Conduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk Assessment
Identify risksIdentify risks
Assess risksAssess risks
Analyze acceptability of Analyze acceptability of riskrisk
Identify ways and means Identify ways and means of risk mitigationof risk mitigation
Identify risksIdentify risks
Assess risksAssess risks
Analyze acceptability of Analyze acceptability of riskrisk
Identify ways and means Identify ways and means of risk mitigationof risk mitigation
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
RevalidateRevalidateRevalidateRevalidate Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the
mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other
words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?
FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and
can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?
AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will Even though the COA will
accomplish the mission and we have the required accomplish the mission and we have the required
resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible
losses (military, time, political, etc.)?losses (military, time, political, etc.)?
Complete:Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-
WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?
Distinguishable:Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently Are the COAs sufficiently
different from each other?different from each other?
Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the
mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other
words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?
FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and
can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?
AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will Even though the COA will
accomplish the mission and we have the required accomplish the mission and we have the required
resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible
losses (military, time, political, etc.)?losses (military, time, political, etc.)?
Complete:Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-
WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?
Distinguishable:Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently Are the COAs sufficiently
different from each other?different from each other?
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theGather theToolsTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. Analyze the end state and transitions.Analyze the end state and transitions. Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect
at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint.constraint.
The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, and disadvantages, not to prescribe component not to prescribe component reactions.reactions.
During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare must not compare friendly COAsfriendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.the enemy’s COAs.
Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. Analyze the end state and transitions.Analyze the end state and transitions. Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect
at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint.constraint.
The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, and disadvantages, not to prescribe component not to prescribe component reactions.reactions.
During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare must not compare friendly COAsfriendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.the enemy’s COAs.
Course of Action Analysis:Course of Action Analysis:SummarySummary
Course of Action Analysis:Course of Action Analysis:SummarySummary
Evaluate each proposedEvaluate each proposed friendlyfriendly COA as though COA as though
executed against the most probable and most executed against the most probable and most
dangerous enemy or threat COAdangerous enemy or threat COA Conduct analysis in an orderly fashionConduct analysis in an orderly fashion Consider crisis termination issuesConsider crisis termination issues Think through action-consequences-reactionThink through action-consequences-reaction Analyze/wargame and record resultsAnalyze/wargame and record results RevalidateRevalidate
Evaluate each proposedEvaluate each proposed friendlyfriendly COA as though COA as though
executed against the most probable and most executed against the most probable and most
dangerous enemy or threat COAdangerous enemy or threat COA Conduct analysis in an orderly fashionConduct analysis in an orderly fashion Consider crisis termination issuesConsider crisis termination issues Think through action-consequences-reactionThink through action-consequences-reaction Analyze/wargame and record resultsAnalyze/wargame and record results RevalidateRevalidate
Course of Action Analysis
Gather theTools
List Assumptions
Critical Events& Decision Points
AnalysisMethod
RecordingMethod
Analyze& Assess
RiskAssessment
Revalidate
Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis
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Multinational Planning Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamAugmentation Team
Questions?Questions?