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CounteringViolentExtremism:HowCanBehaviorAnalysisHelp?
SarahCasellaJones,Ph.D.,BCBA-D,LBATheChicagoSchoolforProfessionalPsychology– Washington,D.C.Campus
VirginiaAssociationforBehaviorAnalysisConference2017Richmond,VA
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DataScienceProcess
RawData
Collected
DataareProcessed
CleanDataset
DataProduct
ExploratoryData
Analysis
Models&Algorithms
CommunicateVisualizeReport
MakeDecision
RealWorldEvents
Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?
-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords
HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports
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DataScienceProcess
RawData
Collected
DataareProcessed
CleanDataset
DataProduct
ExploratoryData
Analysis
Models&Algorithms
CommunicateVisualizeReport
MakeDecision
RealWorldEvents
Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?
-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords
HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports
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“Aspecificsignatureofacrimethatisoftenprevalentastheoffender(s)progressinthecriminalprocess”(Douglas&Munn,1992)
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“UniformedCrimeReport:Crimescategorizedonthebasisoftheirseriousness,frequencyofoccurrence,pervasivenessinallgeographicareasofthecountry,andlikelihoodofbeingreported tolawenforcement.”
Burglary
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Participants
•Cross-trainedswornofficers•OperationsDivision•3mainshifts:•Day:0700-1900•Night:1900-0700•Power:1500-0300
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DataScienceProcess
RawData
Collected
DataareProcessed
CleanDataset
DataProduct
ExploratoryData
Analysis
Models&Algorithms
CommunicateVisualizeReport
MakeDecision
RealWorldEvents
Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?
-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords
HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports
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Measures• Primary:• MOFormCompletion
• Quality:• CompletenessofMOsection• DiscrepancybetweennarrativeandMOsection
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DataScienceProcess
RawData
Collected
DataareProcessed
CleanDataset
DataProduct
ExploratoryData
Analysis
Models&Algorithms
CommunicateVisualizeReport
MakeDecision
RealWorldEvents
Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?
-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords
HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports
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TaskClarification&PSOGroupFeedback
PSOGroupFeedback+Sgt.GroupFeedbackonReportRejection
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DataScienceProcess
RawData
Collected
DataareProcessed
CleanDataset
DataProduct
ExploratoryData
Analysis
Models&Algorithms
CommunicateVisualizeReport
MakeDecision
RealWorldEvents
Whatdataneedstoberecorded/collected?
-email-webpages-surveys-medicalrecords
HumanobservationsBiologyFinanceInternetMedicineSports
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0123456789
101112131415
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Num
ber o
f Occ
urre
nces
Day Occurred
Copper Thefts-04/20/2011-12-06/2011Common Day
0123456789
101112131415
000-300 300-600 600-900 900-1200 1200-1500 1500-1800 1800-2100 2100-000
Num
ber o
f Occ
urre
nces
Hour Occurred
Copper Thefts-04/20/2011-12-06/2011Common Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
000-300 600-900 1200-1500 1800-2100
Num
ber o
f Occ
urre
nces
HourOccurred
Copper: Common Days & Times
Monday-Times
Tuesday-Times
Wednesday-Times
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Collect&AnalyzeData
Date Timeline Event DifferenceBetweenEventsLocation Country Type Deaths Injuries6/1/09 1 LittleRockRecrutingShoting 0 LittleRock,AR USA Shooting 1 111/9/09 2 Ft.HoodAttack 161 Killeen,TX USA Shooting 13 334/15/13 3 BostonMarathonBombings 1253 Boston,MA USA Bombing 3 1839/16/13 4 NavyYardShooting 154 Washington,DC USA Shooting 13 810/23/14 5 NYSubwayAttack-Hatchet 402 NYCity,NY USA HandWeapon 0 511/13/15 6 SeriesofComplexAttacks 386 Paris,France France Complex 137 36812/2/15 7 SanBernardinoCoupleAttacks 19 SanBernandino,CA USA Shooting 14 221/7/16 8 ParisPolicestationattack 36 Paris,France France HandWeapon 1 03/25/16 9 BelgiumAirport&Metroattaks 78 Belgium Belgium Bombing 35 3406/12/16 10 PulseNightclubShooting 79 Orlando,FL USA Shooting 49 536/28/16 11 AtaturkAirportAttack 16 Ataturk,Turkey Turkey Complex 45 2307/14/16 12 Truckdrivenintocrowd 16 Nice,France France Vehicle 86 43411/28/16 13 OhioStateAttack 137 Columbus,OH USA Vehicle 0 1112/19/16 14 BerlinChristmasMarketAttack 21 Berlin,Germany German Vehicle 12 56
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0
2
4
6
8
10
Shooting Bombing HandWeapon Complex Vehicle
Num
bero
fEvents
AttackType
CategoriesofEventTypes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Num
bero
fDaysB
etweenEven
ts
Events
DifferenceinDays
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BehaviorallyInfusedDataScience
• Defensive:• HelpanalystswithpossiblebehavioralindicatorsforIndicators&Warnings/ModusOperanditoanevent
• Whatdidtheenvironmentlooklike?(Characteristicsrelatedtoevent)
• Havesimilaritiesbeenseeninthepast?(Behavioral?)• Whendiditoccur?(Timeseriesanalysis)• Wherediditoccur?(Spatialanalysis)
• Offensive:• Countermeasures:
• Anythingthateffectivelynegatesorreducesanadversary’sabilitytoexploitourvulnerabilities.
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