Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Africa Asia and the PacificEurope Latin America and the CaribbeanNorth America West Asia
Nearly two-thirds of world population growth is in AsiaNearly 50 million peoples are being added to Asia every year
Asia & Pacific
Population
Population Growth by Sub-region
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
250000019
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
Thou
sand
Central Asia
North East Asia
South Asia
South East Asia
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision
Projected population in Asia: 4.88 billion by 2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1975 2000 2030
Asia will have an urban population of 2.6 billion by 2030
24%
54%(2.6
billion)
AsiaGrowing
urban proportion
Urbanization
Urb
an
Po
pula
t ion
(Mill
ions
)
37%(1.4
billion)
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision
GDP Growth Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
World U.S.A. Europe Asia
3.13.1
2.3
6.0
2003-2015
The global economy is expected to grow at 3.1% during the 2002-2015 Asian economy is projected to be growing at 6% during the same period
Source: Global Economic Prospects 2003, World Bank
Emerging Middle Class
Middle class (million) based on the number of people who can buy
automobiles
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Asia:2003 China:2003 China:2006
60s and 70s: if a Chinese person wanted to buy a bicycle, he had to save for a few years Now: for some middle class families, it would only take 2 to 3 years to save and buy a car
Growing Service Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960 1998
Share of service sector in
global economy
38%
60%
Projections
Urban vs. Rural: Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption
Developed(Germany)(Kw/capita)
Developing(India)
Kw/capita
Average 5 0.6
Urban 6 2
Rural 3 0.3
Emissions from mobile source
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2020
EuropeUSA & CanadaAsia
(mil
lio
n m
etr
ic t
on
s p
er
ye
ar)
SO2 emissions2
Mobile sources are the major emitters of NOx,CO,
particulates, and HC, and in addition contribute to SOx,
lead and CO2.
Mobile sources contribution in Shanghai1
CO HC NOxCurrent 75% 93% 44%2010 94% 98% 75%
Source: 1. SEI (2003); 2. www.wri.org
80 million tons
110 million tons
Health impacts of air pollution
Scale of health impacts
Indoor air pollution
Urban air pollution
Regional air pollution
Health Costs of Air Pollution
Asia1
• An estimated 487,000 premature deaths occur each year due to outdoor air pollution.
China2
• Environmental and health costs of air pollution in China is about 7 % of GDP [budget deficit in 2003 = 3.3% of GDP]5
• Estimates shows that these costs could rise to 13% of China’s GDP by 2020
Bangkok• Health cost of air pollution • $640 million• $800 million by 2020
0
50
100
150
200
Mumbai Metro Manila Jakarta KathmanduValley
US
$ m
illi
on
s (
p.a
.)
Mortality
Morbidity
Economic Implications of Health Impacts4
Source: 1. WHO(2002); 2. State of the World 2003, World Watch Institute; 4. URBAIR project; 5. UN, 2004; 6: NIES, www.nies.go.jp
Exposed to diesel exhaust6
Exposed to clean air6
Bangkok
Costs of Air Pollution
“An estimated 487,000 premature deaths in Asia occur each year due to outdoor air pollution”1
“ A total of 3,547 persons were killed in international terrorist attacks in 2001”2
Air pollution is becoming a major health threat in Asian cities
1. WHO (2002);2. USDoS(2002)
Impact: water quantity
Decreasing water table
Increasing temperature
Increasing supply to citie
s
Decreasing supply to agriculture
105 million tons grain short fall
(largest in the record)
2003
Need to produce
105 m tons (2003 short fall)
15 m tons (to feed 74 m people who will be added in 2004)
2004
• 3 of the 4 warmest years on record came during the last 4 years
• 2004 projected to be the 5th consecutive year in which the harvest falls short of consumption
Impact: water quality
Urban centers contribute more than 25% of the sewage in India
• 63% of population in Asia without access to clean water
• Infant mortality rates are 10 to 20 times higher in cities without adequate water and sanitation
Import of Petroleum: burden on national budget
Gasoline consumption trends in Shanghai, China3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oil use
Total Asian Oil Consumption by 2010(Barrel / Day)1
Need to be imported from outside the region [18 – 24 million b/d]
India spends over $3.5 billion on crude petroleum
import annually2.
Source: 1. Harvard International Review (2003); 2. ESCAP Statistical Year Book 2002; 3. M.P. Walsh, US AEP 2000
Emissions from residential areas
Average home emit more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the average car1
Source: 1. Volt Viewtech (www.energyloans.org)
9,979 Kg of CO2 /year
4,535 Kg of CO2 / year
Prevention: Turning the environmental degradation curve
Economic development
Environmental degradation
Prevention measures such as renewable energy sources
Business as usual scenario
Prevention Vs Mitigation/rehabilitation
Prevention
Costs of damage
Cos
ts o
f im
plem
enta
tion
Mitigation
Rehabilitation
Today 99% efforts
Prevention Mitigation Rehabilitation
99% efforts Tomorrow
Today & Tomorrow
Hybrids
Reduces
CO2 by 50% CO, HC and NOx by 90% below Japanese standards.
Toyota Prius Hybrid
Price: $20,810 MSRPFuel efficiency: 23 Km / litreSaving: $5,000 over 15 years
SOLVE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
H2O
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITSECONOMIC BENEFITSHydrogen
Energy
SOCIAL BENEFITS
water
• create domestic jobs• electricity to remote areas which
are not in the national power grid
• eliminate our dependence on foreign oil
• solve our balance of payments woes
• export opportunities
• solve our air pollution problems
• eliminate oil spills
• reduce noise pollution
WATER RESOURCES IN NEPAL
H2O
Nepal is reach in water resources and among the world’s top 5 countries in hydropower potential.
Current use Economic Technical
42,000MW
83,000MW
Hydropower potential in Nepal
Less than 1.2% of
economic potential
Prevention
Technical measures Technical measures
Legal & financial Legal & financial
Mobility
Housing Technical measures Technical measures
Legal & financial Legal & financial
Regional Expert Consultation
Knowledge building and education
Networking
Demonstration Projects
First Expert group meeting; 13 September 2005
3 groups were formed, and each of them are bringing out a white paper on it.
Demonstration Project: Increasing Interest
• Several countries have expressed interest in participating in the demonstration project
• The Thai Cabinet recently approved a project for an eco-city, as a joint venture between the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry and UNEP.
• The Government of Maldives has also expressed interest for constructing an eco-house.
Male’
Hanimadho
#
#
Demonstration Project: Objectives
General Objective:promote eco-friendly buildings in the Asia Pacific region.
Specific Objectives:1. demonstrate the suitability and technological
feasibility.
2. create awareness about the sustainability of eco-friendly buildings, leading to their wider acceptance and use.
Demonstration Project: Scope
i) Regional expert group
ii) Develop generic designs for the different climatic zone and economic groups
iii) Assist in constituting a National Task Force (NTF)
iv) Design tailored to each of the selected countries
v) Enhance the capacity of national technical committee
vi) Assist in the construction in selected countries
vii) Facilitate wider dissemination of the demonstrated concept
viii) Promotion in other countries of the region
Demonstration Project: Implementation Arrangement
National
National Focal Points
National Implementing Agencies
National Task Force
Regional
Steering Committee
Regional Expert group
Guidance
Technical input
Actual construction
•The project will be implemented in full ownership of governments, and in collaboration with the private sector and expert institutions.
•Development of win-win partnership (public-private partnerships) eg: manufacturers of solar panel.
•Governments will provide land, and other facility to enable the demonstration.
Demonstration Project: Implementation Schedule
• Prepare generic designs of eco-friendly house specific to different climatic zone and economic group
• Identify the sites
• Resource mobilization
• Identiy National Implementing Agencies (NIA) and form National Task Force (NTF)- 2005, 2nd quarter
• Development of site specific design
• Conduct national workshop/training to review the site specific design with local stakeholders
• Identify architects/builders for construction
• Identify local stakeholders/ worksmen, interested
Schedule for 2005
Demonstration Project: Implementation Schedule
• Conduct training programme for the local stakeholders/ worksmen
• Implement the demonstration project
Schedule for 2007• Evaluate the impacts of the project with respect to select indicators and
make Scenarios for the future based on the project outcomes
• Prepare a compendium on the results of the project
• Information Dissemination of the outcome of the project
Schedule for 2006
This workshop: Design for Eco-house
• Assumptions Used For Design .• Plan & Elevation View of the Eco-House with dimensions, orientation
• Type of assemblies for foundation, floor, wall, roof, window
• Estimated Building Material Consumption : Cement, Steel, Lumber, Paint, Flooring etc
• Estimated Average Annual Energy & Water Consumption of the eco-house
• Technologies/Materials/techniques used for improving Indoor Environmental Quality, Energy Efficiency, Water Efficiency & Resource Efficiency. Indicate their rating, quantity, expected life, rough initial investment cost & average operation and maintenance cost.
• Rough Estimate of (1) total investment required & (2) average annual operation & maintenance cost
This workshop: Design for Eco-cities/village
• Assumptions Used For Design
• Layout of the City/Village(Houses, Facilities, Roads)
• List of the facilities in the City/Village, with their dimensions/ratings, numbers, material requirements, rated energy consumption, rated water consumption, approximate investment required , average annual operation & maintenance cost
• Rough Estimate of (1) total investment required & (2) average annual operation & maintenance cost
• Implementation plan for the demonstration project
This workshop: Information and need
• Information Requirements for completing the design If any information is required from the different countries for
the completion of the design, please mention them. These could be communicated to the National Implementing Agencies.
• Suggestions for the conduct of the inception workshops/training at the national level
Programme, probable stakeholders/participants, duration etc