Download - Comparison of voters and party elites
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A comparison of voters and party elites:evidence from political surveys in Greece
Ioannis Andreadis
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
1st Conference of the European Political Science Association
Major Greek political parties
• New Democracy (ND) – Right-wing conservative party (main
opposition)– Has ruled Greece from 1974 to 1981, from
1990 to 1993 and from 2004 until 2009.
• Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – Left-wing socialist party (current government) – Has ruled Greece during the rest of the years
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Data Sources
• Comparative Candidates Survey (CCS)– 195 ND and PASOK candidates – web based survey during the beginning of 2010
• Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES)– telephone interviews at the end of 2009– 1022 filled questionnaires
• 744 have answered what party they have voted for• 594 have replied that they have voted for PASOK or ND
• European Parliament Election Study 2009, Voter Study (PIREDEU)
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Satisfaction with Democracy
• On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in Greece?
• Previous research on voters– economic difficulties reduce satisfaction– gap in satisfaction with democracy between
winners and losers
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Candidates’ SWD 2007-2009
71%
37%
50%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ND 2007
ND 2009
PASOK 2007
PASOK 2009
not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied
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Satisfaction with Democracy
53%
40%
37%
25%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied
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Most important problem
Reported problems Voters Candidates
Economy / Economic crisis
65.1% 75%
Unemployment 15.1% 6%
Wasted public money / Corruption
8.2% 9%
Other 11.6% 10%
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What happens today?
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Greek version of Spain's 'Indignados'
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Voters’ Left-Right self-placement
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right
ND voters PASOK voters
PASOK x: 4.79, m: 5, var: 4.3ND x: 7.4, m: 8, var: 3.5
Voter positioned on 6:From PASOK: |6-4.79|=1.21 From ND: |6-7.4|=1.4
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Left/Right Placement
Q1 Q2 Q3 IQR Mode M %
PASOK Candidates SP 2 3 4 2 3 31,9%
PASOK Candidates PP 3 4 5 2 4 36,2%
PASOK Voters SP 4 5 5 1 5 47,7%
PASOK Voters PP 4 5 5 1 5 46,9%
ND Candidates SP 5 6 8 3 5 25,5%
ND Candidates PP 6 7 8 2 8 34,0%
ND Voters SP 6 8 9 3 5/10 21,5%
ND Voters PP 6 8 10 4 10 25,8%
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Income and wealth should be redistributed to ordinary people
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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Politics should abstain from intervening in the economy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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Women should be free to decide on matters of abortion
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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Same-sex marriages should be prohibited by law
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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People who break the law should be given stiffer sentences
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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Immigrants should be required to adapt to the customs of Greece
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
PASOK candidates
PASOK voters
ND candidates
ND voters
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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Conclusions
• Economic crisis is the most important problem facing Greece today (everyone)
• This has affected SWD (voters and losers)• Candidates are on the left of their voters• Voters’ self placement = party placement
– Economic left/right: candidates more extreme– Libertarian – authoritarian: candidates on the
left of their voters
• Evidence in favor of robust statistics use