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Coffee Rust: Impacts and Actions
Amy Angel
Let´s Talk CoffeeEl Salvador, October 2013
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Incidence of Coffee Rust
Source: CATIE, ICO
Coffee Area (hct)
% of Area Affected by
Roya 2012/13Costa Rica 93,774 64%El Salvador 152,187 71%Guatemala 276,479 59%Honduras 282,513 30%Nicaragua 126,154 36%Panamá 19,490 32%Perú 415,000 43%México 769,786 10%Dominican Rep. 131,250 46%Total 2,266,633 35%
Has fallen in most áreas in 13/14
Steady or worse in Guatemala
In Mexico, will increase to 30% in 13/14
Goal to reduce to 20% in Peru by December 2013
Severity in affected areas in El Salvador: pruning in 76%, 12% recepa, 2% new plants, 11% no action
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Production in Central America
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
HondurasGuatemalaCosta RicaNicaraguaEl Salvador10
00 6
0kg
bags
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Total for CA fell 15% from 11/12 to 12/13, and will fall 19% more from 12/13 to 13/14
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Production in Other Rust Affected Countries
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
ColombiaPeruMexico
1000
60k
g ba
gs
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Shows Colombia´s effective fight against rust
Will fall 21% in Peru and 25% in Mexico from 11/12 to 13/14 (2 yrs)
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Export Value from Central America
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
El SalvadorNicaraguaCosta RicaGuatemalaHondurasU
S$ m
illio
n
* Projected value
Steepest declines in El Salvador and Guatemala
Volume falls 22% but value falls 55% from 10/11 to 13/14
3450
1570
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Percentage of Areas Planted with Varieties Susceptible to Coffee Rust
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%90.0%
94.3%
80.0%
50.0%
86.0%82.0%
Source: CATIE
Avg in CA 80.2%
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Age of Coffee Plantations
Mexico
Guatemala
El Salva
dor
Nicaragua
Costa Rica
Panama
Dominican Rep.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
less than 10 yrs 11 to 20 yrs more than 20 yrs
Source: OIRSA
Data not available for Honduras, but is known to have younger plantations.
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Other Compounding Factors
• Greater losses among small scale farmers• Other plagues and diseases; climate change• Lower quality – less income from differentials• Lower price and smaller crop - lower credit • No good solutions for organic production
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Coffee Rust not only destroyed my farm, but also my dreams.
- Ernestina Martínez, Ojo de Agua,
Honduras
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Estimates of Average Gross Annual Income for Coffee Farmers
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14*0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Honduras Guatemala Costa RicaNicaragua El Salvador
US$
Falls 56.5% on avg for CA in 4 yrs
Cost of production has also increased from fighting rust
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Employment on Coffee Farms in El Salvador
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
temporary workerspermanent workers
Source: Based on IV Censo Agropecuario and Consejo Salvadoreño del Café
336
283
181
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Social impacts
• Over 500,000 farm and processing jobs lost in 2013 in Central America
• Average less than 3 hct per farmer• Few employment/income/staple food production
alternatives in coffee areas• Assessment in Guatemala (WFP)
– 43% of coffee HH spend over 65% of income on food– 85% grow corn/beans but not enough for whole year– 37% of laborers have no other livelihood– 15% of small farmers have no other source of income– 35,000 vulnerable families who need assistance– 37,000 additional families at risk of becoming food insecure
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Action Plan• Food assistance for over
55,000 families for 3-5 months (WFP)
• Early warning and information system
• Research on blends• Research on varieties• Research and train farmers
on fighting coffee rust• Identify sources for
financing/innovative tools• Diversification
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More than a crisis, it is a new beginning for coffee in Central America.
- Robéiro Oliveira Silva, Executive Director ICO