Download - Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview Thomas E. Downing SEI Oxford Office [email protected]
Outline
• Concepts matter: where you start determines where you end up
• Linking broadscale vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods
• Integration: Integrated vulnerability assessment is possible, but best conducted at the local to regional level
• Opportunities in Trieste
Linking science and policy: Who wants information on
vulnerability?
• Where are the vulnerable? – Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class
• Who are vulnerable? – Livelihoods at-risk
• What should be done? – Link climate policy to sustainable development
• What is the future of vulnerability?– Exposure to global change, policy impacts
Adaptation spacePolicy
DEVELOPMENT: CLIMATE CONVENTION:
Additionality
ACTORS:
Local
Global
Private State
Implementation
Social vulnerability:
Risk managementSustainable livelihoods
A B
C
A: Farm agro-technologyB: National agricultural developmentC: International trade and markets
Uses of vulnerability assessments
Scale Indices Users
International Nationalcomparisons ofvulnerability
UNFCCC:Eligibility foradaptationfunding
Regional Multiple dimensionprofiles of regional
vulnerability
Regionalagencies:Programmedesign
LocalProfiles of vulnerable situations
or syndromesLocal offices:Project evaluation
Eco-systems
WaterOthersectors
Food HealthSettle-ment
Cost of climatic disasters
1677%359%4.1%3.6%Loss/Gross Domestic Savings
47%78%1%<1%Loss/income pc
20561768169Loss pc
9613,6902,43245,181Historical loss, $M
20%6%<0.1%Aid/GDP
4337908,21429,267GDP pc
NicaraguaHondurasArgentinaUSA
Source: Paul Freeman et al., IIASA and World Bank (2001)
Cost of disasters in Nicaragua
Without catastrophes, the number of people in poverty declines, reaching the target in 2010
With catastrophes and no external aid, the poverty gap increases over time.
Source: Paul Freeman, et al. (2001)
Climate impacts perspectives
Climate change
1st-Nth order impacts
Micro-adaptation
(Sectoral)Vulnerability
Climate variabilitySystemic
Vulnerability
Sustainabledevelopment
Adaptivecapacity
Sustainablelivelihoods
Starting points
• Scenario-led– V=ƒ(Climate change exposure, impacts, adaptation)– Climate change is the problem– Adaptation is marginal to climate change impacts– Short-term responses
• Vulnerability-first– V=risk of adverse consequences– Focus on adaptive capacity and systemic properties– Solutions in sustainable development– Highest priority is climate variability (risk)
HAZARDHAZARD
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
RISK SPACERisk is the overlay of hazardand vulnerabilityDisasters are the realisationof risk Both hazard and vulnerabilityare changing
Operational vulnerability assessment
• How do we develop a consensual definition and measurement of vulnerability?
• How do we measure vulnerability?
Vulnerability is…
• An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.
• Urgent adaptation needs of most vulnerable groups • Existence of local coping strategies• Hard-won lessons from other (non-climate) disciplines
(e.g., sustainable livelihoods, disaster mitigation, natural resource management)
• No-regrets options and “Triple Dividend”• Disconnect between community needs and the policy
process
Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?
Why talk about Sustainable Livelihoods?
The Sustainable Livelihoods Connection
Poverty
Vulnerability to Shocks
Vulnerability to Climate Extremes
At risk of Climate Change
Sustainable Livelihoods
Resilience to shocks
Climate Change Adaptation
What does “Sustainable Livelihoods” mean?
Sustainable Livelihoods: The capability of people to make a living and improve their quality of life without jeopardizing the livelihood options of others.
A livelihood is the means, activities, entitlements and assets by which people make a living.
Sustainability implies:– Ability to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks– Economic effectiveness– Ecological integrity– Social equity
(Rennie and Singh, 1996)
Trends in food security frameworks
• Exposure: – Food security --> Livelihood security
• VAM:– Hoovering --> Structured assessment– Single indicator --> Profiles --> Pathways?
• Rescaling– Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation
A formal notation?Vs,g
c
Where:
T=threat
s=sector
g=group
c=consequence
E.g.: climate change vulnerability in agriculture
for farmers’ economic welfare
T
Vulnerability assessment techniques
• Indicators and mapping• Multi-criteria assessment and profiles• Dynamic simulation and multi-agent systems• Sustainable livelihoods
Quantifying Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change
Settlement
Food
Health
Ecosystems
Water
Sensitivity sectors Coping and Adaptive Capacity sectors
Economics
Human Resources
Environment
National Baseline Estimates and Projections of Sectoral Indicators,
Sensitivity and Coping-Adaptive Capacity, and Vulnerability-Resilience Response Indicators to Climate Change
Sensitivity Indicators Coping-Adaptive Capacity Indicators
R. Moss:2001
Baseline Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Value
(World value = 0 for 1990)
YemenIndiaTunesia
ChinaEgypt
BangladeshSenegal
South-AfricaLibya
ThailandNigeriaUkraine
SudanUzbekistanSaudi-Arabia
MexicoWorld
IranCambodia
Korea-RepPolandIndonesiaChileHungaryKorea-D-R-RpUKJordanBulgaria
JapanNetherlandsSpainArgentinaUSAVenezuela
BrazilGermany
New-ZealandAustralia
Canada
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1HH Size
Male laborers
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Crops sales price in bad year
Food Aid
Grazing land
Crop land
Mid Altitude
Road Access
Livestock holdings
Types of dairy
Low income crop (V High)
Middle income crop (High)
Crop/dairy (Mod)
Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)
High income dairy (Mod)
Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia
Emerging Sustainable
Farmers
Dynamic pathways: Linking present vulnerability to climate outlooks
Climate Forecasters
DisseminationChannels
CommercialFarmers
Vulnerable Farmers
Multi-agent approach:•Represent actors as software agents•Multi-level vulnerability•Emergence from interactions
What can the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach do?
• Enhance a community’s portfolio of “social
capital”: composite of natural, physical,
financial, technical and human capital
• Increase livelihood security
• Enhance capacity to cope with climate-
related shocks
• Build capacity to adapt to climate change
An Example from India:
• Context: Poor rural villages in the drought-prone state of Maharashtra
Approach: Micro-catchment Restoration and Development Actors: Local Communities and the Watershed Organisation Trust (WOTR)
Image source: http://www.wotr.org/
India: What happened?Individual villages undertook a package of SL measures,
designed to regenerate and conserve the micro-catchments upon which their community depends:– Community Organization– Soil, Land and Water Management (e.g., trench building)– Crop Management– Afforestation; Rural Energy Management (e.g,. tree-felling
ban)– Livestock Management; Pasture/Fodder Development (e.g,
grazing restrictions)– Micro-lending for supplemental income generation
India: How did it happen?
• Community commitment, investment and control• “Village Self-Help Groups”
• Participatory planning, implementation, management
• Targeted role for women
• Self-assessment
• Opportunities for livelihood security• Micro-lending; Supplemental income generation
• Community self-help groups
• Support of local NGO (WOTR)• Training and extension services• Blending of “external” and traditional knowledge
India: What was the result?
Satellite imagery of Shenit Watershed
Standard FCC Using IRS 1C LISS III band 2,3,4 data. Date of scan: 19th January 1996. Source: http://www.wotr.org
January 1996Prior to project implementation
December 1999During project implementation
India: What was the result?
The key outcome has been reduced vulnerability to drought of participating
communities
As of 2001:
• Number of Projects 128• Total Area Covered (ha.) 135,812• No.of Villages 176• No.of NGOs involved 77• No.of Districts 22• Total Population engaged 210,000 (approx.)
Image source: http://www.wotr.org/
An Example from Sudan:
• Context: Villages in the drought-prone Bara Province, Western Sudan
• Approach: Community-Based Rangeland Rehabilitation
• Key Actors: Villages within Gireigikh rural council, pilot project staff, UNDP/GEF
Sudan: What happened?A group of villages undertook a package of SL
measures, designed to regenerate and conserve the degraded rangelands upon which their community depends. These included:– Community Organization
– Alternative Livestock and Livestock Management
– Rural Energy Management
– Replanting
– Stabilization of sand dunes
– Creation of windbreaks
– Micro-lending for supplemental
income generation
(Image source: The Near East Foundation, http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
• High impact - Several major objectives exceeded original targets project due to perceived benefits
• Positive leakage - additional villages implementing project strategies
• Strategies slated for expansion and replication in Province
Effectively combined participatory planning, capacity building and access to credit Diversified production system and established drought contingency measures
Sudan: What was the result?
Image source: The Near East Foundation (http://www.neareast.org/main/nefnotes)
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: Why do it?
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: Why do it?
The SL approach helps users to:• Focus on most vulnerable people• Assess their vulnerabilities and strengths• Tap existing knowledge, ongoing efforts to
determine what works• Enable community-driven strategies and action;
ensure buy-in and longevity• Ultimately… fortify against climate-related shocks
Sample approach:• Identify resilient communities (indicators)• Ask why
– What do they do (strategies and measures)? – What do they have (assets, “social capital”)?
• Ask what factors/conditions enabled them to carry out strategies and measures
• Distill lessons on how to build community resilience to climate impacts
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: How to do it?
Applying the SL Approach to Adaptation: How to do it?
Using this as a tool in adaptation assessment can help to:
• Enable national planning processes to effectively consider the most vulnerable groups; articulate unique local vulnerabilities
• Identify locally-relevant resilience-building options
• Build understanding of micro- and macro-level enabling conditions for adaptation
• Build local adaptation awareness and engage local NGOs (potential adaptation project implementers)
ConclusionsApplying the SL Approach:
What can it do for adaptation?
ConclusionsApplying the SL Approach:
What can it do for adaptation?
(Image Source: Global Mechanism for the UNCDD website http://www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities/Enabling.htm).
Opportunities in Trieste
• Vulnerability stream– Concepts and toolkit– Mapping and GIS– Indicators
• Livelihoods practicals– Drought early warning– Role playing and agent-based modelling– Resilient communities
• Stakeholders– Participatory appraisal