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Climate Change Seminar: science background, and
transport trends
Frank Kelly
University of Cambridge
8 September 2006
References: www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~frank/climate/
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Overview
• Science Background - IPCC
• Transport Trends
• Trains and planes
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August 1992, GOES-7 satellite. Hurricane Andrew. (Courtesy of F. Hasler, et al, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA)
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www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/intro_global.html
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Transport trends
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Reference: National Statistics Online http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7280.xls
UK Emissions of carbon dioxide: by end user
0
20
40
60
80
100
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
mil
lio
n t
on
nes
of
carb
on
eq
uiv
alen
t
Domestic
Industry
Other
Transport
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Reference: 'Transport: Trends and Challenges', an Issues Paper for PIU Strategic Futures Seminar 13 November 2001, Figure 1http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/transport/background.pdf
GDP and Transport Growth, 1952-1999
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Ind
ex (
1958
=10
0)
Passenger (all modes) Freight (all modes) GDP
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Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.5http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
Domestic freight transport by mode: goods moved 1953-2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
30019
53
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
bil
lio
n t
on
ne
kmRoad Water Rail Pipeline
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Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
Passenger transport: by mode 1952-2002
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
70019
52
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
2002
bil
lio
n p
asse
ng
er k
mBuses and coaches Motor cycles Pedal cycles
Rail Air Cars, vans and taxis
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Reference: DfT: Transport Statistics for Great Britain (2003 edition), Chapter 9, Table 9.1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=8736&l=3
Passenger travel by mode: air and pedal cycle 1952-2002
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
bil
lio
n p
asse
ng
er k
m
Air Pedal Cycle
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Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 4.10bhttp://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3
Average trip length, by purpose: 1985/6 and 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
Commuting Business Education Shopping Leisure All journeys
1985/86 2002 R
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Reference: DfT, Transport Trends (current edition); Trend 8.1 a & bhttp://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_control/documents/contentservertemplate/dft_index.hcst?n=9381&l=3
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Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainabledevelopment for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator D15http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf
Average fuel efficiency of new cars 1970-2002
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
mil
es p
er g
allo
n
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Reference: Quality of Life Counts: Indicators for a strategy for sustainabledevelopment for the United Kingdom, 2004 Update, Indicator T4http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/sustainable/quality04/maind/pdf/qolc2004.pdf
Real changes in the cost of transport and disposable income: 1974 to 2002
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Pri
ce i
nd
ex (
1974
=10
0)Petrol/oil All motoring Rail Bus Disposable income
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1998 Road Sector Marginal Costs
0.00
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
Congestion Accidents Air Pollution Noise ClimateChange
Pen
ce p
er v
ehic
le k
m Upper Estimate
Lower Estimate
Reference: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, “Surface Transport Costs and Charges: Great Britain 1998”, page 45http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/projects/STCC/downloads/SurfaceTransportCostsReport.pdf
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Reference: DfT Road Pricing Feasibility Study, Annex B - Modelling Results and Analysis; Figure B1http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_029735.pdf
Marginal external costs and tax paid by road users
Pence per km
Marginal external cost of
congestion (a)
Environment and safety
costs (b)
Fuel duty and VAT on duty
(C)Uncovered
externality (a+b)-c
2000 7.3 2.2 5.2 4.3
2010 12.3 1.6 3.9 10.1
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Trains and planes
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• Aviation 96.4
• Rail 11.9
• Car 71.0
• Coach 9.2
• Lorry (per tonne) 116.9
London-Edinburghkg of CO2 per passenger per journey
Hansard - written answer - 8 July 2004
Class 91 electric high speed train 70% occupied,coach with 40 passengers, and 1.56 persons per car
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London-Edinburgh(litres per seat)
0
25
50
75
100
Plane Car 225 km/hTrain
350 km/hTrain
Prim
ary
fuel
lit
res/
seat
100%
50%
25%
PassengerLoading
The comparison is between an Airbus A371, a VW Passat TDI and two hypothetical trains,
running at 225 and 350 km/h respectively.
Kemp R. J. Environmental impact of high-speed rail. Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Seminar on High Speed Rail Developments, 21 April 2004
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Historical vehicle mass per passenger seat for UK and Japanese rolling stock
UK vehicles
Japanese vehicles
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Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cirrus
Source: NOAA-12 AVHRR satellite data (Mannstein, 1997)
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Distribution of fuel burned bycivil aviation, 1992
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Research proceeds…
Source: TRADEOFF Project, Sausen et al, 2005
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Discussion