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The Effects of Climate Change and Peak Oil on Marine Shipping, Naviga>on and Hydrography
MJ Casey IIC Technologies
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Summary
• We live in a globalized world where cheap, fast and reliable marine transporta>on is essen>al
• Post Kyoto Global Climate Change regula>ons will address marine targets for Greenhouse Gas (GSG) emissions
• Oil is in finite supply and we are likely near the peak of produc>on; we can expect fuel prices to steadily climb
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Trade is Globalized
• JIT means no inventory
• Networked trade is endemic
• We are all involved • Going back to old style trade is not an op>on
• The world is totally dependent upon air and sea cargo carriers
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Interna5onal Nature of Auto Manufacturing
Dodge Journey: 43% US parts
Ford Expedi>on: 50%
Jaguar Vanden Plas Sedan: 20%
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Globaliza5onCheap, Reliable Seaborne Trade
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Turning Back Will Be Difficult
Machine Tool Produc5on is
Down
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Kyoto and Interna5onal Shipping
• under the Kyoto Protocol emissions from interna>onal mari>me transport are not included in na>onal inventories or na>onal emissions reduc>on targets
• The Interna>onal Mari>me Organiza>on (IMO) and the Interna>onal Civil Avia>on Organiza>on (ICAO) are working to build an interna>onal consensus on addressing their respec>ve sector’s CO2 and other emissions
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Shipping is Green-‐er
Expected Growth of GHG Emissions A1FI: Fossil Intensive A1B: Balanced energy source A1T: Technologically advanced and non-‐fossil intensive B1: switch to greener technology B2: regional focus
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Most Finite Resources Produc5on Follow Logis5c Curve
UK Coal Produc5on
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The Rise and Fall of Oil Produc5on
Alaska (‘88) Texas (‘72) Mexico (‘04)
Romania (‘75)
Saudi Arabia (??)
(‘00)
‘04
‘08
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M. King Hubbert and “Peak Oil”
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Summary to here
• Shipping is essen>al • GHG Emissions Regula>ons will be applied to Interna>onal Shipping
• Oil, in ever decreasing supply, will rise in price
Shipping needs alterna>ve energy sources
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Post Kyoto GHG Emissions Regula5ons
• Size of current interna>onal shipping GHG emissions
• Op>ons to reduce GHG emissions
• Guidelines for new-‐builds to reduce GHG emissions
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Energy Loss at Sea
Only 28% of energy goes into propulsion
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Op5mizing Superstructure, Hull and Prop
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Wind, Solar
MV Auriga-‐Leader Toyota Car Carrier
Flebner rotors on ENERCON E-‐Ship-‐1
SkySails on MV Beluga
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Alterna5ve Fuels
2030?? Synthe>c Fischer-‐Tropsch
70MW Hyperion Nuclear
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Leading Contender: LNG
DNV suggest by 2020 all newbuilds will specify LNG tanks and dual fuel engines
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Energy Efficiency Design Index EEDI expresses the CO2 emission of a ship design per value for society, which is taken as ton deadweight Qmes ship speed for transport ships and gross tonnage Qmes ship speed for passenger ships …conceived as a future mandatory standard for newbuilds
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Opera5onal Changes
• Vessel Speed Reduc>on • Beber Voyage Planning • Beber Logis>cs
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Speed Reduc5on
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Role of the Hydrographic Community
To reframe the nau>cal chart and associated publica>ons as aids to energy efficiency
…
Focus on minimizing the energy expended by ships though high resolu>on current surveys and models
…
Focus on improved shipping efficiency through improved under-‐keel-‐clearance depth and air-‐gap
forecas>ng …
Aid the mariner in op>mizing the voyage
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Voyage Op5miza5on (VO)
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VO (2): Air Gap
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VO (3): DUKC
Porto de Lisboa
Dynamic Under Keel Clearance
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VO (4): Ice Coverage
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Northern Route
A Substan>al Reduc>on in GHG Emissions (approx. 19,000 T)
GHG Emission savings per year 20,000,000 T
32,000 T
13,000 T
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Summary
• Shipping is essen>al but will come under pressure to reduce GHG emissions and reduce costs
• The hydrographic community can play a part increasing shipping efficiency through an extension of well known technologies and innova>ve methods yet to be discovered
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Thank You!