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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Change and the Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Chemical Engineering 302, 9 February 2006
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future
climate change “Dangerous anthropogenic inter-
ference with the climate system”? “Climate surprises” Summary
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Planet Te(K) Ts(K) Earth 256 288
Venus 227 732
Mars 217 223
e
Ts
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration
330
335
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Concentration (parts per million)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Annual Increase (parts per million)
CO2 Conc
Ann Increase
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006380 ppm
2040480 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)
2100(950 ppm)
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
“Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan”
Mark Kushner, Dean
Iowa State University College of Engineering
President’s Council Meeting
13 January 2006
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
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From GEWEX News, 14, 1 (November 2004); http://gewx.org/gewex_nwsltr.html
No
rmal
ized
Ch
ang
e
Change in Downwelling Longwave Radiation vs. Change in Surface Temperature
Longwave DownSurface (2m) Temperature
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.
Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
Sea-surface temperature
V V
Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
V
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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Tropical Weather
Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
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Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research
The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Adaptation Necessary
Mitigation Possible
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Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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40% Probability
5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
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Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries
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For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the
day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy SpaceCenter
Miami
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
Summary Climate change is real and we need to be doing something
about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term
The longer we wait, the fewer our options Regional patterns of warming will be complicated Climate surprises can’t be discounted We need dialog between scientists and the
private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies
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PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have
seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
Contact me directly: