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Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts on Puget Sound
Angela GroutMarine & Sediment Assessment Group
Water and Land Resources Division Science Seminar – November 29, 2005
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Talk Outline
Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise
Water QualityWater Quality
Implications for Marine EcosystemsImplications for Marine Ecosystems
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Vertical Land Movement Rates
in Western Washington
• Uplift occurs on northern outer coast and southern outer coast near Columbia River
• Subsidence occurs in most of Puget Sound and most of southern outer coast
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Friday Harbor sea level trend
From 1935 to the present, water level at the Friday Harbor gauge has been rising at about the global average.
Lyles et al. (1988)
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Seattle sea level trend
From 1900 to the present, water level at the Seattle gauge has been rising at about 2X the global average.
Lyles et al. (1988)
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Neah Bay sea level trend
From 1935 to the present, water level at the Neah Bay gauge has been trending down.
Lyles et al. (1988)
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Barometric Pressure Effects
Short term low pressure cells allow water level to rise: up to 2.0 ft on 22 Nov 2001 at Tacoma
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1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 20910
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sea
Le v
el R
ise
(cm
)
Eastern Pacific
Equatorial Atlantic
NW Atlantic
Arctic Ocean
Regional Changes in Sea Level
Source: Canadian Climate Change Model
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Local Sea Level Rise ScenariosCanning (1991)
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Effects and Implications of Sea Level Rise
• Inundation of low-lying coastal areas• Increased coastal flooding• Increased rates of coastal erosion• Loss of coastal wetlands• Changes in tidal prism and salinity of embayments• Rise in coastal water table• Changes in stormwater/wastewater outfall
hydraulics
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Sea Surface Temperature at Race Rocks
From Snover et al. 2005
Long-term warming trend of 1.7oF (0.9oC) since 1921 and 1.8oF (1.0oC) since 1950.
Since 1985 ↑ ≈ 0.85oC
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Preliminary Temperature Trends at
King County Beach Sites (1985-present) Mean = +0.047 oC/yr
Since 1985 ↑ ≈ 0.94oC
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Preliminary Temperature Trends Offshore(1998-present)
Temperature Trends at KSBP01 (1998-2005)
0
50
100
150
200
0 0.05 0.1 0.15
Increase in Temperature per Year (deg C)
Dep
th (m
)
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Other Parameters Currently Under Study for Trends
• Salinity – Positive trends observed at beach and offshore sites
• Dissolved Oxygen – No trends observed offshore
• Nutrients• Fecal Coliform/Pollutants
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Stratification IndexHigh ΔSigma-t = Strongly Stratified Water ColumnLow ΔSigma-t = Weakly Stratified Water Column
KSBP01 Stratification Index(Delta sigma-t = max - min)
02468
101214161820
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05
Delta
sig
ma-
t
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Stratification IndexHigh ΔSigma-t = Strongly Stratified Water ColumnLow ΔSigma-t = Weakly Stratified Water Column
KSBP01 Stratification Index(Delta sigma-t = max - min)
02468
101214161820
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05
Delta
sig
ma-
t
Drought Conditions
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Stratification IndexHigh ΔSigma-t = Strongly Stratified Water ColumnLow ΔSigma-t = Weakly Stratified Water Column
KSBP01 Stratification Index(Delta sigma-t = max - min)
02468
101214161820
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05
Delta
sig
ma-
t
Drought Conditions
Snowpackabove normal
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KSBP01 Stratification Index
02468
101214161820
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Delta
sig
ma-
tJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Newton et al. 2003 – Weak stratification → More sluggish circulation → Increased residence time of water in Puget Sound
Water Column Most Stable in Spring/Summer Months
Implications for ecosystem-level processes!
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↓ precip (snowpack) → ↑ surf salinity → ↓ stratification
1) Either: low DO less likely (↑ mixing rates) OR low DO more likely (↑ residence time)
2) Changes in the timing and/or intensity of phytoplankton blooms could result in a mismatch of PP blooms with zooplankton emergence → possible impact on trophic transfer and biota recruitment success
3) Decreased circulation would increase residence time of contaminants and pollutants in Puget Sound.
4) Implications for transport/retention of planktonic larvae & ichthyoplankton.
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RecommendationsMore baseline and environmental variability data
Monitoring focused on long-term
Characterization of physical, chemical & biological processes and the connections between them
Engagement of public interest
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Acknowledgements
• Douglas Canning, Ecology
• Eric Grossman, Western Coastal and Marine Geology Program, USGS, Santa Cruz, CA
• Tom Georgianna, WLRD