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Conference on Climate Change, Development andOfficial Statistics
Seoul, 11-12 December 2008
Matthias Bruckner
Division for Sustainable Development
Department of Economic and Social AffairsUnited Nations
Climate Change and Indicators ofSustainable Development
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Outline
1. What are indicators of sustainabledevelopment?
2. Why are indicators of sustainabledevelopment useful for measuringclimate change impacts and responses?
3. Which indicators are used by countries?
4. Where are the main challenges fordeveloping climate change indicators ofsustainable development?
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3
UN DESA Division forSustainable Development
Mission Statement: To provide leadership and tobe an authoritative source of expertise within theUnited Nations system on sustainabledevelopment
DSD serves as the Secretariat of the Commissionon Sustainable Development (CSD)
CSD: Functional Commission of the UN Economic
and Social Council (ECOSOC) Attended by non-CSD member states,
UN system, NGOs and IGOs Includes high-level segment with
60-70 ministers in attendance
DSD conducts normative work, analytical workand technical cooperation
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Indicators of sustainable development canhave multiple functions:
Simplifying, clarifying and making aggregated
information and scientific knowledge available topolicy-makers
Measuring progress towards sustainabledevelopment goals
Identifying critical issues for sustainabledevelopment
Communicating the concept of sustainabledevelopment to policy-makers and the public
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Indicators of sustainable development oftenintegrate economic, social and environmentalstatistics, e.g.
Resource efficiency indicators integrate economic andenvironmental statistics;
Gender employment indicators integrate economic andsocial statistics;
Air pollution indicator integrate social and environmentalstatistics;
Indicator on sustainable resource management integrateall three dimensions, but are often not fully developed.
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Indicators of sustainable development can usedifferent frameworks. Frameworks determine what to measure and why Policy-oriented frameworks
Guaranteed policy relevance, flexible, buy-in form stakeholders Prone to change with change in government, sometimes
theoretically weak
Theory-based frameworks More stable across time, more commonalities across countries, less
subject to political change
Need to agree on theory, validity and relevance of theories variesacross time and space, less buy-in from stakeholders, policyrelevance can be low
Extended capital theory advocated by some (see e.g. JointECE/OECD/Eurostat Working Group on Statistics for SustainableDevelopment)
Other frameworks: Indices (theory-based or theory-free),Pressure-state-response frameworks
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Many countries across the world utilizeindicators of sustainable development,especially for
Monitoring progress of their national sustainabledevelopment strategies; Assessing state of sustainable development.
UN DESA publishes a set of Indicators of
Sustainable Development as reference forcountries to develop national indicators Mandated by the United Nations Commission on
Sustainable Development in 1995;
Third edition released in late 2007.
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Detailed methodology sheetsfor each indicator availableonline.
Methodology sheets will beupdated regularly.
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/isd.htm
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Indicators of SustainableDevelopment
Role of official statistics in national indicator sets Provision of high-quality data (data collection and
integration) Common types and sources of data needed
National accounts Censuses Household and other surveysAdministrative records Estimations based on agreed standards;
Provision of statistical methodologies and standards; In some countries, official statistics have a lead role
in analysing and reporting of indicators
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Benefits of indicators of sustainable
development for climate change
Climate change is a sustainable development issue,not just an environmental concern
Climate change threatens to erase progress made inachieving sustainable development goals, including the
Millennium Development Goals. Greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic andtechnological pathways.
Current emissions impact on the living conditions of futuregenerations.
Poor and vulnerable countries are expected to face thegreatest burden of climate change, while havingcontributed the least to the problem.
Indicators of sustainable development can beinformative for climate change.
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Benefits of indicators of sustainable
development for climate change
Existing sustainable development indicator sets are a usefulpoint of departure for the derivation of climate changeindicators.
Recognizes the important linkages between climate change
and other sustainable development issues, e.g. Reducing emissions from combustion of (imported)
fossil fuels can increase energy security.
Improved disaster risk management helps to address
not only climate related events (droughts, floods,),but also non-climate related ones (earthquakes,volcanoes)
Preserving forests to maintain natural capital and to
sustain livelihoods also increases carbon absorption.
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Benefits of indicators of sustainable
development for climate change
Linking climate change indicators to sustainable developmentindicators increases coherence among indicator sets.
This avoids risk of sending mixed messages.
Coherence can further be increased by incorporating
existing issue-specific sets of sustainable developmentindicators, for example
Energy Indicators of Sustainable Development Biodiversity Indicators.
Disaggregating general indicators of sustainabledevelopment may make them climate change relevant.
It also helps to avoid duplication of efforts. It may reduce reporting burden for agencies.
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Benefits of indicators of sustainable
development for climate change
While using national sets of indicators of sustainabledevelopment as basis for climate change indicators, otherprocesses should be integrated
International processes under the UNFCCC
Negotiations related to measurable, reportable and verifiablecommitments and actions on mitigation, financing, technology andcapacity-building
Performance indicators on technology transfer Reduced emissions form deforestation and forest degradation
National climate strategies and action plans
Progress on System of Environmental-Economic Accounting
Climate change-related work on CSD indicators Meeting held in New York in October 2008, see
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/15Oct_2008/egm.htm
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Indicators used at the national level
Many indicators used by countries to monitor their nationalsustainable development strategies (NSDS) relate to climatechange.
Climate change and development are not fundamentally new issues.
There are different possibilities to determine which indicatorsof sustainable development are climate change related.
Indicators on issues that the strategy explicitly identify asbeing linked to climate change (Revealed preference).
Indicators on issues that other countries identified as climatechange relevant in their strategies.
Indicators on issues that experts identified as climate changerelated, for example in the IPCC reports.
Following examples are based on an on-going study bUN DESA
The study uses indicator sets of 9 countries Number of indicators varies across countries, so number of
indicator sis no indication of emphasis on climate change in
NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelAustralia Climate change mitigation
Policy issue
in NSDSIndicator Type of
reference
Energy Renewable energy use as a proportion of total Own NSDS
Energy Total renewable and non-renewable energy use Own NSDS
Climatechange
Total net greenhouse gas emissions Own NSDS
Forests Total area of all forest type Other NSDS
Air qualityNumber of occasions where concentrations ofpollutants exceeded NEPM standards for ambient airquality in major urban areas
Expert
Air quality Total SOx, NOx and particulate emissions Expert
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Indicators used at the national levelAustralia Climate change adaptation
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
BiodiversityNumber of extinct, endangered and vulnerablespecies
Other NSDS
Biodiversity Number of endangered ecological communities Other NSDS
Industrialperformance
Real GDP per capita Other NSDS
Water
management
Surface water units within 70% of sustainable
yieldOther NSDS
WaterManagement
Ground water management units within 70% ofsustainable yield
Other NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelIndia Climate change mitigation
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Environment andclimate change
GHG emissions per capita Own NSDS
Environment andclimate change
Energy intensity per unit of GDP Own NSDS
Environment andclimate change
Forest and tree cover Own NSDS
Environment and
climate changeAir quality in major issues Expert
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Indicators used at the national levelIndia Climate change adaptation
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Income andpoverty
Average GDP growth Own NSDS
Income andpoverty
Agricultural GDP growth rate Own NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea Climate change mitigation I
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Climate change Emissions of GHGs Own NSDS
Climate change Emissions of GHGs per person Own NSDS
Climate change Emissions of GHGs per GDP Own NSDS
Forests Forest area as a percent of land Own NSDS
Forests Wood harvesting intensity Own NSDS
WasteGeneration of industrial and municipal solidwaste
Own NSDS
Waste Waste recycling and reuse Own NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea Climate change mitigation II
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Energy useAnnual energy consumption of renewableenergy sources
Own NSDS
Energy use Share of consumption of renewable energysources Own NSDS
Energy use Energy use per GDP (TOE/1000$) Own NSDS
Material use Intensity of material use (per GDP 1000$) Other NSDS
Transportation Transportation shares per modal split Other NSDS
AgricultureProportion ration of environmentally friendlyagriculture
Other NSDS
Agriculture Use of fertilizer Expert
Ozone layer Consumption of ODS Expert
Air quality Air pollution in metropolitan areas Expert
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Indicators used at the national levelRepublic of Korea Climate change adaptation
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
DisasterHuman life and economic loss caused bynatural disaster
Own NSDS
Economicperformance
GDP per capita Other NSDS
Ecosystems Number of species in danger of extinction Other NSDS
Ecosystems Protected area in % of total area Other NSDS
Water quantityAnnual withdrawal of ground and surfacewater
Expert
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Indicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom Climate change mitigation I
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
GHG emissionsGHG and CO2 emissions, and CO2emissions associated with UK consumption
Own NSDS
GHG emissionsCO2 emissions from industry, domestic(residential), transport sectors
Own NSDS
GHG emissionsGHG emissions from UK-basedinternational aviation and shipping fuelbunkers
Own NSDS
Electricitygeneration
Renewable electricity generated as apercentage of total electricity
Own NSDS
Electricitygeneration
Electricity generated, CO2, NOx and SO2emissions by electricity generators andGDP
Own NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom Climate change mitigation II
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
CO2 and otheremissions
Domestic CO2 emissions, domestic energyconsumption and household spending
Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions Road transport (CO2, NOx, PM10 emissionsand Gross Domestic Product) Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions
Private car CO2 emissions, car-kilometresand household spending
Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions
Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) CO2 emissions,kilometres, tonnes and GDP
Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions
Manufacturing sector CO2, NOx, SO2,PM10 emissions and output
Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions
Service sector CO2 , NOx emissions andoutput
Own NSDS
CO2 and otheremissions Public sector CO2 , NOx emissions andoutput Own NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom Climate change mitigation III
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Energy supplyUK indigenous energy production andgross inland energy consumption
Other NSDS
Resource use Domestic Material Consumption and GDP Other NSDS
AgricultureFertiliser input, farmland bird population,ammonia and methane emissions andoutput
Other NSDS
Land use(contextual)
Area covered by agriculture, woodland,water or river, urban Other NSDS
Mobility(a) Number of trips per person by mode (b)Distance traveled per person per year bybroad trip purpose
Other NSDS
Waste Waste arisings per disposal Other NSDS
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Indicators used at the national levelUnited Kingdom Climate change adaptation
Policy issue inNSDS
IndicatorType ofreference
Biodiversityconservation
(a) Priority species status (b) priorityhabitat status
Other NSDS
Bird populationsBird population indices (a) farmland birds(b) woodland birds (c) coastal birds (d)wintering wetland birds
Expert
Water resourceuse
Total abstractions from non-tidal surfaceand ground water, leakage losses and GDP
Expert
Water stress Impacts of water shortages (spatialdisaggregation)
Expert
FloodingNumber of properties in areas at risk offlooding
Expert
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Indicators used at the national levelOther countries Climate change mitigation
Policy issue in
NSDSIndicator Country
GHG emissions CO2 intensity of energy consumption Finland
Land useIncrease in land use for housing andtransport Germany
Mobility Intensity of passenger transport (km/GDP) Germany
Nutrition Nitrogen surplus in farming Germany
Clean energy
Contribution of biofuels to fuel
consumption Spain
Energy intensivesectors
Average CO2 emissions in new vehicles Spain
Carbon sinks Agricultural land used as carbon sink Spain
Natural resourcemanagement
Percentage of forest land covered bysustainable forest management plans
Uganda
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Indicators used at the national levelOther countries Climate change adaptation
Policy issue inNSDS
Indicator Country
Coastal zones Population density in coastal provinces Morocco
Soil, vegetation anddesertification
Land affected by soil erosion, salinationand desertification
Morocco
Hydrologicalresources
Drought risk index Spain
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Indicators used at the national levelOther countries Climate change financing
Policy issue inNSDS
Indicator Country
Globalresponsibility
Development aid targeted at thecombating of climate change and at the
enhancement of health and education
Finland
Climate changemarket instruments
Government purchase of Certified EmissionReductions (CER)
Spain
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Main challenges
Defining the scope of climate change indicators ofsustainable development
Indicators expressing significant linkages should probablybe included.
To remain focused, indicators expressing indirect linkages could beexcluded.
Additional specific climate change indicators may be useful E.g. climate indicators, CO2 intensity of fuels, CO2 emissions from
policy relevant sources such as cars
Definitions of climate change adaptation are often vague. People and economies adapt to a multiple factors, climate change
being one of them.
If development is the best form of adaptation, are alldevelopment indicators climate change related?
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Main challenges
Statistical classifications and methodologies for indicators insome important domains remain incomplete
Land cover, land use and land degradation.
Key area for both mitigation and adaptation
Ecosystem services Spatial classifications for capturing spatially differentiated
climate change impacts
Technology transfer
Lack of common definitions of climate change related technologies Technology can be transferred through many modes (trade in
goods, trade in services, inward foreign direct investment, outwardforeign direct investment)
Transfer can be at commercial or at preferential terms.
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Main challenges
Time lag between climate change measures andclimate change impact
Measures on climate change mitigation and adaptation arein response to future climate changes.
Climate change impacts are uncertain
Extreme events can be devastating, but cannot be ignored (Fat-tailed distribution)
Demand for indicators to a large extent determinedby outcome of current climate change negotiations.
Details of outcome currently unknown.
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hank YouContact: Matthias Bruckner
Division for Sustainable DevelopmentDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations
email: [email protected]://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/index.html
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]