Climate and CitiesUnderstanding the Risks and Costs
Warren Evans, Director, Environment Department The World Bank
2
Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation Cities and urban areas consume 75 per cent of the world’s energy and produce nearly 80 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The battle to prevent catastrophic climate change will be won or lost in our cities.
Millions of urban dwellers and businesses will be adversely impacted by climate change
Minimizimng devastating social, economic and environmental impacts requires action NOW to increase climate resilience
3
Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation At the World Bank1993 Began implementing / leveraging GEF funding for
climate change1999 Pioneered carbon finance through $180m prototype
Carbon Fund- now at over $2 billion carbon funds1999 ”Fuel for Thought” Environment Strategy for the
energy sector2001 Environment Strategy with climate change pillar 2006-8 Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF):
(i) increased energy access, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa;
(ii) accelerated transition to a low carbon energy economy;
(iii) adaptation to climate variability and change. 2007 IDA and Climate Change Paper2008 Strategic Framework on Climate Change and
Development; Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan
4
Six Areas for Action• Support climate actions in development processes• Mobilize concessional and innovative finance• Facilitate development of innovative market
mechanisms• Leverage private finance• Accelerate development and deployment of new
technology• Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity
building
Six Areas for Action• Support climate actions in development processes• Mobilize concessional and innovative finance• Facilitate development of innovative market
mechanisms• Leverage private finance• Accelerate development and deployment of new
technology• Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity
building
World Bank Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change
5
Six Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island States
All low-lying Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
MozambiqueMozambiqu
eMoldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Middle IncomeLow Income High Income
Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Source: World Bank staff.
6
Climate Risks Are Higher for Poor Countries
Source: World Bank staff.
Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
7
Impacts on Agriculture…
Where will rural families go? Where will rural families go?
Adaptation: the example of Africa
8
How Much Does Adaptation Cost?There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain
Developing Countries — Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030
Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
The implied change in temperature is 1.5º C for 2030
Cost estimates based on expert opinion
9
Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
Good Adaptation is Cost-Effective
Source: European Environment Agency.
Investment in physical infrastructure
Sea level rise likely to carry high costsAdaptation (dark green) buys a large reduction in climate change costs (light green)
10
Available Resources
GEF$ 0.25 bllnfor FY09
World Bank Group
(IBRD/IDA/IFC/MIGA)$1.9 billionfor FY09
Carbon Market: CDM&JI
< $ 8 billionfor FY09
UNDP$ 0.90-120 blln for adaptation
GFDRR $ 0.07 blln
Adaptation Fund
$ 0.3-0.5 blln
Climate Investment Funds by MDBs
$ 6 billion
FY09 estimates are projections
Both
GEF$ 0.25 blln
Main Resourcesto address
Climate Change
Other MDBs$3 billionfor FY09
EUGlobal Climate
Change Alliance€ 0. 3 blln
Huge Gap
Adaptation(Total Needs est. $28-67bn / year)
Mitigation(Total Needs est.$170bn+ / year)
Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response
11
URBAN RISKS - Resilience
Understand vulnerabilities including displacement
Understand structural relationships> potential failures in urban systems
Understand conflicts between built and natural environment
Understand capacity to recover> Livelihoods and poverty
12
Where People are going…o To citieso To coastso Of 30 largest cities, 20 in coastal areas o Thousands of smaller cities and towns at risk
o Coasts will be movingo Should be considering provision of
infratructure for cities on new coastline
o Should be considering space for “new” natural areas
13
Barriers
A. Complexity- lack of knowledgeB. Lack of awarenessC. Lack of integration between and
across government and other stakeholders
D. Lack of resources
14
Revitalizing Spatial Planning
o Surge in informal settlementso Economic pressures o Short-sighted development
o Optimizing mitigation and adaptation actionso Harmonizing natural and built infrastructureo Political leadership
15
Ecosystem-based vs Infrastructure Solutions
16
Two Major New Initiatives
Climate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters
and
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities
17
Climate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters
o The Primer outlines city typologieso It integrates climate change with DRMo It presents a “hot spot” tool for identifying city-
specific priorities for actiono It identifies both adaptation and mitigation
strategies at the local level, based on learning from regional and global sound practices
o The Primer is applicable to a range of cities - from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place
18
Objectives of the Primero To understand the issues and impact of climate
change at the city levelo To engage in a participatory approach to
establish vulnerabilities to potential climate change impacts
o To learn about the why and the how through illustrative examples from other cities
o To build resilience to future disasters into planning and design through no-regrets endeavors
o To understand the requirements for moving from theory to practice
o To engage in partnerships and shared learning with other cities facing similar problems
19
Program Components
A. Develop local resilience action planso Populate Hot Spot risk assessment matrix and
compile City Information Base (Primer tools)o Identify priorities for action & design feasible
programsB. Strengthen national and local partners for
implementation scale-up in initial countrieso Identify and engage national/ local partners at
outsetC. Scale up implementation of resilience action plan
development to 100 cities in East Asia
20
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities
Joint World Bank, ADB, JICA (formerly JBIC) Institute study Future climate-change induced flood implications for 2050 Bangkok, HCMC, Kolkata, Manila
Objectives Strengthen the understanding of the economic, social and
environmental impacts of climate variability & change, and the vulnerabilities of the urban community
Provide a set of options to mayors, national level decision makers and urban planners on key policy measures needed to address adaptation to climate change in coastal cities
21
Area affected by regular floods driven by heavy monsoon rains and high tides will and flood duration will increase
Salinity intrusion will increase
Extreme events will increase Storm surge the key driver for extreme events and the most damaging and influential of climate change parameters
22
Significant risk of water shortages during the dry season due to water quantity and quality. Urban population likely to be much higher than projections, in part due to climate change refugeesSurface and ground water treatment plants are at risk of flooding and salinityTransportation network affected